TCMCP2
HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 175.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 175.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 174.2W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 175.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 112.8W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 112.8W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 112.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 116.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.7N 121.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 112.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 05.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 53N174E 968 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 120 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 9.5 M HIGHEST IN SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM SE QUADRANT...AND BETWEEN 300
NM AND 660 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
ALSO WITHIN 900 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST 55N167W 974 MB. WITHIN 720 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM
NW...600 NM NE...1020 NM SE AND 840 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N156W 988 MB. WITHIN 780 NM SE...1140 NM
SW AND 660 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5
M...EXCEPT 2.5 TO 5 M IN SE QUADRANT.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 56N152W 1002 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NW...AND
BETWEEN 180 NM AND 360 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN
420 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N147W 990 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 53N140W 1006 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 660 NM
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 60N147W IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.
.FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 152W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 32N W OF 175W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 50N TO 56N
BETWEEN 136W AND 145W AND FROM 58N TO 60N W OF 178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 57N BETWEEN 137W AND
145W.
.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 05.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.8N 112.5W 977 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 03
MOVING
WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE...130 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM W
SEMICIRCLE...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO
11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W WINDS 20 TO
33
KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W SW
TO W
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 103W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 20.3N 114.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210
NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0
TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 106W AND
122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 116.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
FROM
16N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 27N BETWEEN 109W AND 122W
WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W E WINDS
20
TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC SAT OCT 3...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
90
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
18N
TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO
13N100W...THEN
RESUMES W OF HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 08N116W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN
110W AND 120W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN
FROM 00N TO 10N W OF 130W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 03 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 05 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.2N 173.1W 959 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 03 MOVING
W OR 270 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE...110
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE
FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 166W AND 178W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...210 NM NW QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
29N BETWEEN 166W AND 179W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.8N 179.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 21N AND W OF 171W.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 21N TO 28N W OF 175W WITH SEAS TO 10.5 M.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M ELSEWHERE N OF 16N W OF 170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NOLO MOVED W OF THE AREA. WINDS 20 TO
25 KT FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 178W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 22N AND W
OF 175W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 14N148W 1011 MB AND TROUGH FROM 13N149W TO LOW TO 17N146W.
BOTH MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW OPENED UP. TROUGH FROM 11N153W TO 14N152W
TO 18N152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 11N158W TO 14N158W TO 17N158W.
.LOW 06N154W 1011 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS W
OF LOW FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 155W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 04N156W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 06N156W 1011 MB.
.LOW 10N172W 1011 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 168W AND 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N171W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 147W AND 149W. SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 148W AND 151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 151W
AND 157W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 153W AND 157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 155W
AND 168W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 155W AND 160W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 07N140W TO SECOND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO
08N160W...AND 13N169W TO THIRD LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO 09N180W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS S OF TROUGH FROM 00N
TO 05N BETWEEN 140W AND 150W...AND BETWEEN 157W AND 166W.
$$
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.=