TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.5W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 105.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 18/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 19.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 45N155W 1010 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. FROM 37N TO 48N BETWEEN
162W AND 148W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N138W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 51N
BETWEEN 148W AND 131W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N135W 998 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N130W 1004 MB. FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN
141W AND 127W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR
LOW CENTER.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 41N179E 1006 MB. W OF A LINE
FROM 31N180W TO 50N157W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N165W 997 MB. FROM 35N TO 51N BETWEEN
177W AND 152W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 58N141W 995 MB DRIFTING N. FROM 48N TO 61N BETWEEN 153W AND
130W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N142W 1010 MB. FROM 54N TO 60N BETWEEN
153W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 58N169W 997 MB. FROM 50N TO 56N BETWEEN
170W AND 152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N164W 993 MB. FROM 51N TO 61N BETWEEN
155W AND 140W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 60N TO 65N W OF
166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 166W AND
157W...AND N OF 58N BETWEEN 145W AND 153W.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 19.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 17.5N 105.0W 976 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 17
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 17N101W TO 19N105W TO 18N106W
TO 17N107W TO 15N105W TO 15N102W TO 17N101W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 16N100W TO 15N106W TO 21N107W TO 15N114W TO 08N110W
TO 10N100W TO 16N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 19.8N 106.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120
NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 21N106W TO 21N107W TO 20N108W TO 19N107W TO
18N106W TO 19N104W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 19N107W TO 21N106W TO 23N113W TO 17N114W TO 14N105W
TO 18N103W TO 19N107W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 21.0N 107.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120
NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 21N106W TO
22N108W TO 21N108W TO 20N108W TO 21N107W TO 20N106W TO
21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 22N106W TO 24N108W
TO 23N112W TO 21N111W TO 18N108W TO 19N106W TO
22N106W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 14N93W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W
TO 14N97W TO 12N95W TO 13N94W TO 14N93W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO
13N95W TO 14N95W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 15N93W TO 16N95W TO 13N97W TO 09N98W TO 09N96W
TO 12N93W TO 15N93W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 13N91W TO 16N95W TO 13N100W TO
10N100W TO 07N97W TO 08N92W TO 13N91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO
14N95W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS
30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 14N94W TO
16N94W TO 16N95W TO 10N98W TO 10N97W TO 12N95W TO 14N94W N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
13N92W TO 16N95W TO 13N99W TO 09N102W TO 04N99W TO 05N95W TO
13N92W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 01S109W TO 01N109W TO 02N111W TO 01S113W TO 03S115W TO
03.4S109W TO 01S109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03S114W TO 02S114W TO 02S115W TO
03S115W TO 03.4S116W TO 03.4S115W TO 03S114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.33 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC SAT OCT 17...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM OF CENTER.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W AND FROM 12N102W TO
05N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N E
OF 95W AND FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 122W.
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 18 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 19 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 07N178W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS N OF LOW FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 171W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 07N172W 1009 MB.
.STATIONARY FRONT 30N152W TO 28N159W AND TROUGH FROM 28N159W TO
27N160W TO 25N163W. FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY AND TROUGH MOVING W
10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT 30N159W TO 28N155W AND TROUGH
28N165W TO 25N167W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH BOTH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 15N144W TO 19N145W TO 21N147W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 16N151W TO 20N152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 17N156W TO 20N157W.
.TROUGH 04N141W TO 07N141W TO 12N140W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 04N145W TO 08N146W TO 12N145W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 163W AND 176W...AND
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 153W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 166W AND
178W...AND FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 150W AND 165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 145W
AND 164W.
.SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 160W AND 76W...AND N OF
20N AND E OF 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 155W...AND
N OF 18N BETWEEN 142W AND 155W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 26N W OF 161W...
AND N OF 16N BETWEEN 142W AND 161W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 07N150W TO 07N165W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 02N TO 13N
BETWEEN 150W AND 164W.
.MONSOON TROUGH 07N165W TO 06N170W TO LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO
07N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS N OF TROUGH FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 165W AND 175W.
$$
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.=