TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 140SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 120.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 19.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N180W 1005 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM SE...AND 420
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N167W 1010 MB. WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N163W 1001 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NE...600 NM
SE...300 NM SW...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 50N TO 56N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 30N TO 42N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 42N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 45N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.LOW 58N153W 1010 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 41N TO 54N
BETWEEN 180W AND 135W...AND FROM 51N TO 57N W OF 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 55N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 55N BETWEEN 147W AND
160W.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 19.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 16.1N 120.2W 994 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL
17 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N116W TO 21N119W TO 18N124W TO
11N122W TO 11N117W TO 16N115W TO 21N116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N113W TO 22N118W TO
18N124W TO 10N124W TO 08N118W TO 11N113W TO 20N113W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.7N 121.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.9N 122.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 140 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND
180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N116W
TO 24N121W TO 22N127W TO 16N126W TO 14N122W TO 15N117W TO
20N116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 24N117W TO 26N125W TO 23N130W TO 17N128W TO 09N120W TO
15N113W TO 24N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 21.0N 125.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N118W TO 27N122W TO 27N129W TO
21N133W TO 17N126W TO 20N119W TO 24N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 27N119W TO 28N125W TO
23N137W TO 14N127W TO 14N121W TO 18N117W TO 27N119W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 13N95W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 12N87W TO 12N89W TO 10N91W TO 09N89W TO 10N86W TO 12N87W
...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 22N139W TO 23N140W TO 16N140W TO 18N138W TO 22N139W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02S118W TO 02S119W TO 02S120W TO
03.4S120W TO 03.4S118W TO 02S118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S111W TO 01S117W TO 01N122W TO
00N125W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S109W TO 01S111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 108W. WITHIN 13N103W TO
14N104W TO 14N106W TO 11N107W TO 08N107W TO 08N105W TO 13N103W
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N111W 1006 MB. WITHIN 14N106W TO 16N110W TO 15N112W TO
11N112W TO 08N109W TO 10N107W TO 14N106W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N104W TO 17N108W TO 16N112W TO
09N113W TO 07N109W TO 09N105W TO 13N104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0730 UTC FRI JUL 17...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 210
NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 180
NM AND 570 NM NE QUADRANT.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N75W TO 09N84W TO 06.5N96W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N104W TO 18N111W...THEN RESUMES SW OF ELIDA
FROM 14N122.5W TO 10.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 100W...FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND
100W...WITHIN 420 NM SSW OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND
111W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 17 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 18 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 19 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 14N166W 1006 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM
19N TO 14N BETWEEN 169W AND 162W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 18N
TO 11N BETWEEN 165W AND 161W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N169W 1007 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 19N
TO 15N BETWEEN 172W AND 164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N173W 1008 MB. WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS.
.LOW NEAR 05N151W 1009 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 270 NM W
OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 10N142W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
FROM 13N TO 05N BETWEEN 148W AND LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N145W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 30N162W 26N168W 23N173W MOVING NW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N168W 27N171W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED N OF AREA.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 23N TO 15N BETWEEN 149W AND 142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 14N BETWEEN
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 19N TO 14N BETWEEN 168W AND 161W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 13N BETWEEN 173W
AND 165W...AND FROM 23N TO 12N BETWEEN 154W AND 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 20N TO 16N BETWEEN 177W
AND 171W...AND FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN 160W AND 147W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N180W TO FIRST LOW TO SECOND LOW TO 09N158W TO
THIRD LOW TO 06N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 270 NM OF
MONSOON TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER PIERCE. HONOLULU HI.=