TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 165.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 30SE 75SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 165.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 165.0W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 10.7N 166.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 10.6N 169.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.8N 172.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.3N 175.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.9N 179.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.4N 178.2E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 12.5N 174.0E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 165.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/REINHART
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N172W 986 MB AND INTENSIFYING. FROM 35N
TO 48N W OF 177W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N176W 972 MB. FROM 39N TO 51N BETWEEN
167W AND 177W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE S OF
57N W OF 165W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N151W 960 MB. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N
TO 53N BETWEEN 138W AND 161W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 M.
ALSO FROM 34N TO 57N BETWEEN 138W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ADDITIONALLY...EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED BELOW...S OF
39N BETWEEN 135W AND 180W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6
M...HIGHEST E.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 45N147W 975 MB MOVING NE 30 KT.
FROM 37N TO 49N BETWEEN 141W AND 162W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5
TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 51N W OF 140W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 40N168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 55N137W 970 MB. S OF 61N BETWEEN
124W AND 162W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR
51N134W AND 41N142W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. NE OF A LINE FROM 59N153W TO
47N131W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 53N139W 970 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 180 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO
56N E OF 144W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR
49N134W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N147W 974 MB. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 55N137W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N149W 961 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOW 53N139W...N OF 51N E OF 170W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 38N129W
1004 MB. S OF 44N BETWEEN 124W AND 139W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS SECTION
ABOVE... S OF 49N BETWEEN 124W AND 144W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 55N TO 58N
BETWEEN 149W AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 53N BETWEEN 166W AND
180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 52N TO 54N BETWEEN 148W AND
156W.
.LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE BERING SEA N OF 62N W
OF ALASKA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE
.48 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 60N177W
TO 63N164W AND FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN ALASKA COAST AND 164W.
.FORECASTER JOSEPH. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 27N114W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 08N140W TO 13N125W TO
27N114W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N122W TO 27N140W TO 04N140W TO
12N129W TO 12N116W TO 17N110W TO 29N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N126W TO 19N130W TO 20N140W TO
06N140W TO 06N137W TO 14N134W TO 16N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 01N104W TO 04N110W TO 09N113W TO 00N126W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S103W TO 01N104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03N115W TO 02N126W TO 00N127W TO
03.4S120W TO 03S96W TO 03N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S98W TO 04N119W TO 00N126W TO
03.4S120W TO 03.4S95W TO 01S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N87W TO 10N87W TO 11N86W
...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST NW OF AREA. WITHIN 30N137W TO
30N140W TO 29N140W TO 29N138W TO 30N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 27N140W. WITHIN
30N133W TO 30N140W TO 27N140W TO 28N137W TO 30N133W NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 5.5 M IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
29N133W TO 30N132W TO 30N133W TO 28N137W TO 27N140W TO 26N140W TO
29N133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N129W TO 25N133.5W TO
23N140W. WITHIN 30N129W TO 30N138W TO 28N136W TO 28N135W TO
28N130W TO 30N129W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 5.5 M
IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N125W TO 30N129W TO 28N135W TO
30N140W TO 20N140W TO 26N132W TO 30N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST NEAR 29N137.5W.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 10.5N74.5W TO GULF OF
PANAMA AT 07N79.5W TO ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA TO 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 10N92.5W TO 06.5N96W. ITCZ
FROM 06.5N96W TO 05N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 03.4S TO 02N BETWEEN 78.5W AND 83W...FROM 04N TO 06.5N
BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...WITHIN 90 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW AT
10N92.5W...FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 121W...AND FROM 00N
TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND 140W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 11 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 12 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.1N 164.7W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
10 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT FROM 16N TO 11N BETWEEN 162W AND 166W.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE
QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 10N BETWEEN
156W AND 169W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E
SEMI-CIRCLE OF PENA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 10.6N 168.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 10N BETWEEN
165W AND 172W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 15N TO 10N BETWEEN
164W AND 172W WITH SEAS TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 10N BETWEEN 162W AND 174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.0N 174.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 10N BETWEEN
165W AND 172W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 21N TO 10N W OF 165W WITH
SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 10N164W 04N173W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 09N168W 06N174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 10N172W 05N180W.
.FRONT 30N164W 27N173W 26N180W MOVING W 15 KT N OF 28N AND
NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N145W 26N152W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 23N140W 22N143W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 180 NM N OF FRONT.
.NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 22N TO 15N W OF 169W.
.24 HR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 25N TO 18N W OF 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 25N TO 11N BETWEEN
145W AND 167W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M BOUNDED BY AN AREA 30N140W 10N140W 09N180W
20N180W 30N150W 30N140W AND N OF 28N W OF 177W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 5 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N147W TO
26N169W TO 30N1723W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
30N150W TO 25N180W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 25N TO 14N W OF 170W.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M FROM 20N TO 12N E OF 159W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 5.5 M N OF A LINE FROM 26N140W TO
22N152W TO 30N159W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
25N140W 20N155W TO 29N178W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 18N TO 10N
E OF 162W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA UNLESS OTHERWISE DESCRIBED IN TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ABOVE.
.MONSOON TROUGH 05N140W 07N160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
210 NM OF TROUGH E OF 147W.
$$
.FORECASTER THOMAS. HONOLULU HI.=