TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.9W
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 124.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 123.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 117.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC WED OCT 07 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 09.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW WELL W OF AREA. FROM 51N TO 57N W OF 176E AREA OF S TO SE
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WELL W OF AREA AND NEW LOW...POST
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHOI-WAN...JUST SW OF AREA 50N167E 965 MB. W OF
A LINE FROM 49N180W TO 54N176W TO 60N180W AREA OF S TO SE WINDS
35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR 52N172E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WELL W OF AREA AND NEW LOW...POST
TROPICAL CHOI-WAN...57N178E 963 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE...480 NM
SE...360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 40N180W TO 51N167W TO 64N168W WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER W OF AREA NEAR
58N169E 958 MB. WITHIN 600 NM E QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM E AND
NE OF A LINE FROM 42N174W TO 55N164W TO 62N165W TO 65N170W WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 38N177W
TO 47N165W TO 54N159W TO 65N168W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 36N158W 1010 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
FROM 30N TO 47N BETWEEN 161W AND 177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 36N157W 1004
MB. WITHIN 540 NM NE AND 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 30N163W TO
45N159W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 37N158W 1003 MB.
WITHIN 300 NM NW FROM 31N164W TO LOW CENTER TO 42N155W TO
43N147W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH NEW MAIN CENTER 31N165W 1005
MB. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 59N150W 1010 MB DRIFTING NE 05 KT. WITHIN 660 NM S AND 480
NM W QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 46N145W 1012 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50N134W TO LOW CENTER
TO 37N154W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N131W 1018 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 38N TO 44N E OF 129W AREA OF N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 48N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 44N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW INLAND LOW 52N124W 1003 MB. WITHIN 480 NM
W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 54N TO 62N BETWEEN 172W AND 175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 65N169W TO
62N165W.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 7.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 8.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 9.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 121.2W 979 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 07
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 210 NM SE AND
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N120W TO
22N121W TO 20N122W TO 20N121W TO 19N120W TO 20N119W TO 22N120W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
24N116W TO 28N123W TO 23N129W TO 15N126W TO 14N118W TO 18N115W TO
24N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 21.7N 123.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM IN SE AND NW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM IN SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N122W TO 25N124W
TO 24N126W TO 22N126W TO 20N123W TO 21N120W TO 25N122W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 25N119W TO
28N124W TO 26N130W TO 20N131W TO 17N128W TO 18N118W TO 25N119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.5N 125.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NW QUADRANT...150 NM IN NE
AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N122W TO 26N128W TO 25N129W TO 21N128W TO
21N126W TO 21N123W TO 23N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N120W TO 30N123W TO 30N139W TO
18N140W TO 17N122W TO 24N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW PRESSURE...NEAR 14N100W 1006 MB. WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N102W
TO 14N102W TO 13N100W TO 13N97W TO 16N98W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N102W 1004 MB. WITHIN 14N101W TO 15N102W TO 14N102W TO 14N101W
WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N98W TO
18N101W TO 16N104W TO 14N103W TO 13N99W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 15N103W TO 15N104W TO 15N105W TO 14N104W
TO 14N103W TO 15N103W W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 15N106W TO
13N104W TO 14N100W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N105W 1001 MB. WITHIN 16N104W TO 16N106W TO 15N106W TO 14N106W
TO 14N104W TO 15N104W TO 16N104W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO
4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 14N107W
TO 13N106W TO 14N103W TO 17N101W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
3.5 M. WITHIN 17N99W TO 18N102W TO 17N107W TO 15N107W TO 10N105W
TO 10N100W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16N106W 998 MB. WITHIN 17N105W TO 17N106W TO 16N107W TO 14N106W
TO 14N105W TO 15N104W TO 17N105W WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO
5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 19N104W TO 18N106W TO 16N108W
TO 13N107W TO 12N104W TO 17N100W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N99W TO 19N104W TO 15N108W TO
07N105W TO 08N98W TO 11N95W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 03N97W TO 06N113W TO 05N121W TO 00N126W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S94W TO 03N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC WED OCT 7...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
TO 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14N100W...FROM
10N115W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 03N BETWEEN
90W AND 109W...S OF 10N AND W OF 120W.
$$
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 07 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 08 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 09 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONT 30N163W 26N172W 27N180W MOVING SE 15 KT E OF 174W AND
NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M
N OF FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
N OF 26N BETWEEN 169W AND 165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N158W 24N162W 22N165W. WINDS 20 TO 30
KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M NW OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENS TO TROUGH 30N165W 25N167W
20N168W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N W OF 167W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N
OF 20N W OF 160W.
.LOW NEAR 12N161W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 17N163W TO LOW TO 10N161W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 15N TO 13N BETWEEN 163W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND TROUGH MERGES WITH TROUGH
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.TROUGH 30N158W 26N160W 21N161W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N157W 23N160W 17N163W 12N162W. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 159W AND 153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N160W 22N162W 17N162W. WINDS 20 TO 25
KT N OF 21N BETWEEN 159W AND 153W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 23N
BETWEEN 160W AND 152W.
.LOW NEAR 10N140W 1009 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 14N TO 11N BETWEEN 143W
AND 141W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 10N140W 1010 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON
TROUGH.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N144W 1011 MB. TROUGH FROM 14N144W
TO LOW TO 03N145W.
.LOW NEAR 05N170W 1009 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH NEARLY
STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N170W 1009 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON
TROUGH.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 08N171W 1009 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON
TROUGH.
.TROUGH 23N143W 20N144W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N140W 07N158W 05N169W 06N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS S OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 167W...S OF 09N BETWEEN
161W AND 148W...AND S OF 05N E OF 146W.
$$
.FORECASTER TROTTER. HONOLULU HI.=