TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 115.9W
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 30SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 119.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 124.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 116.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 133.8W
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 134.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC AUG 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC AUG 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC AUG 30.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 39N179E 1008 MB DRIFTING NW. WITHIN 120 NM E AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360
NM E AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 40N175E 1010 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E
AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 65N162W 988 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 540 NM SE OF A LINE
FROM 58N170W TO 62N164W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED NE OF AREAS WITH CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 59N149W 1009 MB MOVING E 10 KT AND SLOWING. WITHIN 360 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1004 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 420
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N140W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A
LINE FROM 56N147W TO 53N153W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 660 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST E OF A LINE FROM 42N128W TO 35N125W TO 32N120W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 44N TO 54N W
OF 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 53N W OF 152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 58N W OF 167W.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI AUG 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 30.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 13.7N 115.5W 990 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG
28
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...200
NM SE
QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM
SW
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM
FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 04N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND
119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 14.6N 116.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 15.9N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND
120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM OF
CENTER...
EXCEPT 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 07N TO 24N BETWEEN 108W AND
125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.5N 121.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
240
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM OF
CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0
TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 09N TO 28N BETWEEN 112W AND
131W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.5N 133.4W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG
28
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM
SW
QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM
SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.8N 135.4W.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT
WITH
SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM
NE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 132 AND 136W WINDS 2O KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.1N 138.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM NE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA
FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 135W WINDS 2O KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN
MIXED SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N131W 1007 MB. FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 127W
AND
134W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 MIN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATED. N OF 25N AND W OF A
LINE
FROM 30N133W TO 25N137W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 24N AND W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FROM 09.5N TO 11.5N E OF 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF
OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180
NM
SE AND 90 NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180
NM
SW SEMICIRCLE.
.TRPCL WAVE ALONG 96W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 89W AND 98W, AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND
101W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N95W TO 11N110W. IN
ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION NEAR KARINA...LOWELL AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N W OF 115W.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC AUG 28 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC AUG 29 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC AUG 30 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.LOW 08N164W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG
TSTMS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 160W AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N160W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N162W 1008 MB.
.LOW 07N175W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG
TSTMS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 170W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N173W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N170W 1009 MB.
.TROUGH 28N161W TO 30N162W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N170W TO 25N168W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 26N142W TO 21N141W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 26N TO 20N BETWEEN 151W
AND 161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 27N TO 20N BETWEEN 155W
AND
167W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 24N E OF 144W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 07N180W 07N173W 08N167W 10N160W 10N155W 10N149W
10N142W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 12N TO
03N
BETWEEN 140W AND 160W.
$$
.FORECASTER KINO. HONOLULU HI.=