TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 151.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 151.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 150.6W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 151.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BLAKE
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC FRI NOV 06 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC NOV 06.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 07.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 08.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 43N156W 999 MB MOVING E 20 KT AND
SECOND CENTER 43N150W 996 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING. FROM 37N TO 41N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W WINDS 35 TO
50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
164W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N143W 974 MB. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM S
AND W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N142W 965 MB. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM S
AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 420 NM S AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5
TO 10 M. ALSO FROM 37N TO 54N BETWEEN 125W AND 146W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 M...HIGHEST SW OF THE LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N132W 999 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE E OF A LINE FROM
45N130W TO 55N140W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...EXCEPT S OF
52N SEAS 5 TO 8.5 M WITH W TO SW SWELL. ALSO FROM 35N TO 45N E OF
132W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M WITH W TO NW SWELL.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 51N130W 987 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 46N TO 50N BETWEEN 130W
AND 133W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE E OF A LINE
FROM 45N140W TO 48N143W TO 52N130W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...STORM WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 47N BETWEEN 178W AND 180W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 47N176W 988 MB.
FROM 43N TO 46N BETWEEN 175W AND 180W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5
TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 49N BETWEEN 161W AND 180W WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 49N147W 973 MB. FROM 34N TO 51N
BETWEEN 136W AND 158W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 52N168W 995 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. BETWEEN 54N AND A LINE FROM
34N164W TO 44N178W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N156W 995 MB. FROM 45N TO 51N BETWEEN
150W AND 160W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M WITH W TO SW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N142W 969 MB MOVING W 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE
FROM 54N132W TO 51N144W TO 54N158W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4
M...EXCEPT E OF 145W SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N151W 992 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N174W 978 MB. FROM 33N TO 48N BETWEEN
167W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 65N164W TO 58N172W...FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN
170W AND 177W...AND FROM 45N TO 51N BETWEEN 134W AND 126W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND
129W...N OF A LINE FROM 55N157W TO 58N148W...AND FROM 45N TO 49N
BETWEEN 170W AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 56N156W TO 50N152W AND FROM 46N TO 50N BETWEEN 170W AND
180W.
.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 6.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT NOV 7.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN NOV 8.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 20N137W TO 20N139W TO 20N140W TO 18N140W TO 17N138W TO
20N137W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 3.5 M IN NW TO N
SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N119W TO 30N140W TO 09N140W TO 12N129W
TO 21N127W TO 30N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 25N115W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W TO
06N140W TO 14N125W TO 25N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N117W TO 26N131W TO 30N140W TO
08N140W TO 07N128W TO 19N112W TO 30N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST NW.
.WITHIN 02S114W TO 00N115W TO 02S117W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S111W TO 02S114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN MERGING
NW AND SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N106W TO 01S109W TO 00N111W TO
01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S99W TO 00N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MERGING NW AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N106W TO 00N112W TO 01N115W TO
00N126W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S104W TO 00N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MERGING NW AND SE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 16N94.5W TO 16N95W
TO 16N95.5W TO 15N95.5W TO 14.5N94.5W TO 15N94.5W TO
16N94.5W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 16N95W TO 15N95.5W
TO 14N95.5W TO 14.5N95W TO 15N95W TO 16N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 3.0 M IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N95W TO
14N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO 13N95W TO 15N95W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 15.5N94.5W TO
16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 15N95.5W TO 14.5N95.5W TO 15N95W TO
15.5N94.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 31N114W TO
31.5N114.5W TO 30.5N114.5W TO 30N114W TO 31N114W NW TO N WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.42 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2030 UTC FRI NOV 6...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N75W TO 11.5N84.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10.5N89W 1009 MB TO 07N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N116.5W 1011 MB
TO 08.5N122.5W. ITCZ FROM 08.5N122.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 13N AND
E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N AND E OF 85W...
S OF 01N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W... AND FROM 09N TO 13.5N W OF
114W.
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC NOV 06 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 07 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 08 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.3N 150.1W 1002 MB AT 2100 UTC NOV 06
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS
50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT. WINDS
20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 08N E OF 158W. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 08N E OF 153W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG TSTMS FROM 16N TO 08N BETWEEN 152W AND 146W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 153.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 11N BETWEEN 160W
AND 149W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 400 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 5.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 07N BETWEEN
159W AND 150W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.3N 157.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO
5.5 M. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN 165W
AND 153W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 06N BETWEEN 165W
AND 155W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONT 30N158W 27N166W 26N171W 25N180W MOVING ESE 15 KT. NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT NW OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N146W 27N156W 24N168W. NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT WITHIN 175 NM OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING FRONT 30N146W 27N152W 24N160W.
.LOW NEAR 05N151W 1010 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS FROM 05N TO 02N BETWEEN 148W AND 144W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 05N156W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 05N160W 1010 MB.
.TROUGH 09N180W 09N170W 07N164W MOVING SW SLOWLY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH MONSOON TROUGH.
.TROUGH 18N158W 12N159W MOVING WSW 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 16N164W 11N162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 18N178W 11N172W 08N169W.
.ENE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 25N TO 16N W OF 165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 23N TO 14N W OF
161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 16N W OF
165W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF 10N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF 06N BETWEEN 140W AND
180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 07 BETWEEN 140W AND
180W...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 168W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 09N140W 09N145W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 12N TO 07N E
OF 145W.
.MONSOON TROUGH 06N180W 05N169W 03N161W 05N148W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS S OF MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER TROTTER. HONOLULU HI.=