TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.9W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 113.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 17.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 60N149W 1009 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 55N TO 62N BETWEEN
140W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 133W AND 125W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 133W AND 125W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 57N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 42N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.LOW 53N175E 1012 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N165W 1010 MB. WITHIN 360 NM E...AND 420
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N154W 1010 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 57N180W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E...AND
360 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 56N TO 61N
BETWEEN 140W AND 148W...AND FROM 46N TO 52N W OF 178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 51N BETWEEN 164W AND
147W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 53N TO 57N W OF 176W.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUL 17.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 14.9N 111.8W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL
15 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N108W TO
20N112W TO 16N113W TO 14N111W TO 14N108W TO 16N107W TO 19N108W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.1N 116.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NE SEMICIRCLE...AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N112W TO 20N117W TO 16N120W TO 11N113W TO
14N111W TO 19N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.2N 119.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N113W TO 22N115W TO 21N122W TO 16N123W TO
10N120W TO 10N116W TO 18N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N113W TO 23N118W TO 20N124W TO
08N124W TO 10N114W TO 14N112W TO 21N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 12N86W TO 11N88W TO 11N91W TO 10N90W TO 09N88W TO 10N86W
TO 12N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.LOW PRES NEAR 13N138W 1010 MB. WITHIN 10N136W TO 11N137W TO
11N139W TO 10N140W TO 06N140W TO 08N137W TO 10N136W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N139W 1010 MB. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 21N138W TO 23N140W TO 18N140W TO
18N138W TO 19N137W TO 21N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0700 UTC WED JUL 15...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
E SEMICIRCLE...AND 240 NM SEMICIRCLE.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N74W TO 10N85W TO 08N87W. ITCZ FROM 08N87W
TO 06N91W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N94W TO 13N108W...THEN RESUMES
FROM 12N114W TO 07N123W TO 12N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...WITHIN 390 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND
135W...AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 119W AND 131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...WITHIN
270 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 107W...AND FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 15 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 16 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 17 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 10N167W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. MONSOON TROUGH 08N180W TO
LOW TO 09N160W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 07N BETWEEN 164W
AND 169W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 13N AND 03N W OF 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N165W 1006 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 10N180W TO
LOW TO 10N160W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 07N BETWEEN 162W
AND 168W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N165W 1005 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 10N180W TO
LOW TO 11N160W. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.LOW 09N153W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. MONSOON TROUGH 12N160W TO
LOW TO 08N147W 12N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 10N TO 04N
BETWEEN 138W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N153W 1009 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 10N160W TO
LOW TO 11N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N153W 1010 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 11N160W TO
LOW TO 11N140W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
$$
.FORECASTER WROE. HONOLULU HI.=