TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.7W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 17.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 61N152W 1010 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.LOW 53N174W 1012 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N162W 1010 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N149W 1010 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 49N TO 56N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 55N173W 1002 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE...540
NM SW...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 90 NM N AND
NE OF A LINE FROM 41N172W TO 47N157W TO 50N151W AND FROM 45N TO
53N W OF 172W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 60 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
46N161W TO 50N152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI JUL 17.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.7N 114.6W 999 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 15
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS
55
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...80 NM
NE
QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM
N
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
4.5
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN
210 NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 16.3N 118.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
125 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS
4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NE SEMICIRCLE...AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
OF
CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.0N 119.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.9N 121.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210
NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M.
ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 300 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
33
KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N
BETWEEN
112W AND 126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N97W
N
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N90W...INCLUDING THE
GULF
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF
OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N92W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
2.5
M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO
09.5N92W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
2.5
M.
.FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH ELIDA.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC WED JUL 15...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR
COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO 06N90W TO 10N105W, THEN RESUMES
WEST
OF T.S. ELIDA FROM 11N117W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 12N139W.
SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO
09N
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND
110W...FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
125W
AND 132W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 15 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 16 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 17 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 11N165W 1007 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. MONSOON TROUGH 10N180W TO
LOW TO 09N160W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 08N BETWEEN 160W AND
163W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS BETWEEN 13N AND 08N W OF 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N164W 1007 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 09N180W TO
LOW TO 08N160W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF
LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N168W 1009 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 08N180W TO
LOW TO 07N160W. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 210 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF
LOW.
.LOW 09N154W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. MONSOON TROUGH 09N160W TO
LOW TO 10N149W 11N145W 11N141W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 11N
TO 03N E OF 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N152W 1009 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. MONSOON TROUGH 08N160W TO
LOW TO 11N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N153W 1009 MB. WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS.
MONSOON TROUGH 07N160W TO LOW TO 11N140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 15N E OF 148W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 12N E OF 155W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M WITHIN 120 NM OF 10N165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M WITHIN 180 NM OF 16N164W
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M WITHIN 180 NM OF 18N168W...AND
FROM 23N TO 12N BETWEEN 141W AND 151W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
$$
.FORECASTER M BALLARD. HONOLULU HI.=