TCMEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.7W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.9N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH=
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.8W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.5N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH,
AND ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO
PRESERVE CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...TYPHOON WARNING...
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON HALONG NEAR 34.9N 155.3E MOVING NE OR
75 DEG AT 29 KTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUST 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE...150 NM SE...160 NM SW...AND 150 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER W OF AREA. ELSEWHERE S OF 37N W OF
163E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA. N OF 40N W OF 168E WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 51N156E 969 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE
AND E OF A LINE FROM 52N163E TO 47N167E TO 45N167E AND FROM 42N
TO 46N W OF 165E WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST W OF
165E. ELSEWHERE N OF 37N W OF 173E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 4
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 53N166E 965 MB.
BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6
TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 840 NM NE QUADRANT AND 660 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 M...HIGHEST S
SEMICIRCLE. ALSO FROM 45N TO 54N BETWEEN 164W AND 177W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW NW OF AREA 65N177W 967 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 840 NM S
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 52N169W TO 42N172W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ALSO N OF 53N W OF 171W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL N OF AREA. N OF 58N W OF ALASKA WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 41N175W TO 37N178E TO 31N168E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 38N177W 1014 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N172W 1006 MB. FROM 37N TO 46N BETWEEN
169W AND 176W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N
TO 48N BETWEEN 165W AND 180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N171W 1004 MB. FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN
163W AND 173W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 34N TO 42N BETWEEN 126W AND 161W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 145W AND 161W AREA OF E
TO SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 42N BETWEEN 149W AND 164W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.FROM 44N TO 52N BETWEEN 125W AND 145W AREA OF N WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N126W 1009 MB. FROM 42N TO 54N BETWEEN
129W AND 142W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N129W 1008 MB. FROM 40N TO 52N BETWEEN
135W AND 148W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN 145W AND 150W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N179E 1004 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN 168W AND 175W.
.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 8.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 9.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PRISCILLA NEAR 21.0N 112.0W 968 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 08
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 130 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
270 NM E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N108W TO 24N116W TO
21N116W TO 17N114W TO 17N111W TO 20N108W TO 22N108W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 12.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 23N106W TO
28N116W TO 22N120W TO 11N114W TO 13N102W TO 23N106W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PRISCILLA NEAR 22.9N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N112W TO 27N117W TO 23N120W TO
21N117W TO 21N113W TO 22N111W TO 25N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
5.5 TO 9.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 30N118W TO 23N123W TO
16N120W TO 17N106W TO 18N104W TO 30N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA NEAR 24.2N 115.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA NEAR 25.5N 115.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N114W TO 28N117W TO 26N119W TO
25N119W TO 24N118W TO 25N114W TO 27N114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
5.5 TO 7.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N112W TO 30N119W TO
25N123W TO 13N116W TO 11N110W TO 26N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 15.2N 117.3W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
08 MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N115W TO 16N117W TO 16N119W TO
14N120W TO 13N118W TO 13N116W TO 14N115W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
4.0 TO 5.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N115W TO 20N120W TO
14N122W TO 11N119W TO 11N114W TO 15N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 16.6N
113.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 17N112W
TO 17N115W TO 15N115W TO 15N114W TO 15N112W TO 16N111W TO
17N112W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
16N107W TO 17N110W TO 16N119W TO 11N117W TO 10N111W TO 12N108W TO
16N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 17.4N
109.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. OVER FORECAST WATERS CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N94.5W 1006 MB. WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W TO
16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N98W 1006 MB. WITHIN 16N97W TO 18N103W TO 16N107W TO 12N105W
TO 10N99W TO 11N95W TO 16N97W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16.5N103.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 15N97W TO 19N104W TO 19N110W TO
10N109W TO 11N98W TO 15N97W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.WITHIN 01S98W TO 00N107W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S88W TO
01S98W...EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02S117W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S113W TO 02S117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
SE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N114W TO 32N115W TO 31N115W TO
30N115W TO 30N114W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0830 UTC WED OCT 8...
.HURCN PRISCILLA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 23N
BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.
.T.S. OCTAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W
AND 120W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 13N99W...THEN RESUMES W OF T.S.
OCTAVE NEAR 14N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF
10N AND E OF 103W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH W
OF 121W.
.FORECASTER ERA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 08 2025.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 09 2025.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 10 2025.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 27N153W 21N158W 17N163W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N155W 24N159W 20N165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N155W 24N160W 18N165W.
.TROUGH 24N140W 23N142W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 23N140W 28N146W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 22N140W 26N143W.
.TROUGH 13N158W 07N165W 04N173W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 172W AND 165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 11N163W 07N176W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 14N163W 10N165W 06N174W.
.LOW NEAR 11N154W 1013 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 10N148W 1013 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N148W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH 12N149W 08N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 28N176W 20N171W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N177W 18N178W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N172E 28N168E.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 09N140W 09N145W...AND 04N178W 04N170E 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ E OF 145W.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 180W.
$$
.FORECASTER SHIGESATO. HONOLULU HI.=