TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 166.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 270SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 166.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 165.6W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 168.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 171.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 172.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.0N 172.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.4N 173.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.8N 175.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.4N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 166.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.3W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.9N 126.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 117.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 12.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.SEE HFO PORTION IN HSFEPI FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 165.1W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
10 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 450 NM NE
QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...270 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 330 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M N OF 30 N. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO
38N BETWEEN 170W AND 153W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 169.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE...AND 210 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M N OF 30 N. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N
BETWEEN 174W AND 162W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 30.6N 172.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE...AND SE
QUADRANTS...WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN
164W AND 180W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.W OF A LINE FROM 62N170W TO 56N170W TO 51N180W WINDS 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 50N178W TO 54N163W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N AND W OF A LINE FROM 51N180W TO 63N159W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 52N TO 61N BETWEEN 132W AND 156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 420 NM S OF A LINE FROM 60N150W TO
50N130W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 55N TO 59N BETWEEN 155W AND 148W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 31N131W 1008 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. FROM 31N TO 40N BETWEEN
127W AND 150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 33N137W 1015 MB. FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN
137W AND 155W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. FROM 33N TO 42N BETWEEN 142W
AND 155W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.LOW 43N177W 1015 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 50N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 50N
BETWEEN 177W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 58N BETWEEN 176W AND
161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 59N BETWEEN 180W AND
159W.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 12.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR 16.4N 116.6W 1006 MB AT
0300 UTC SEP 10 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 18N113W TO 20N116W TO
20N117W TO 18N118W TO 16N118W TO 16N113W TO 18N113W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 16.7N 118.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 16.8N 121.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 10 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM ELSEWHERE WITH
SEAS TO 5.0 M. WITHIN 19N117W TO 20N121W TO 18N123W TO 16N121W
TO 16N117W TO 19N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 16.7N 126.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO
7.0 M. WITHIN 21N123W TO 22N125W TO 20N128W TO 17N129W TO
14N125W TO 18N121W TO 21N123W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 12N86W TO 12N88W TO 11N89W TO 10N88W TO 10N87W TO 11N86W
TO 12N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N86W TO 12N87W TO 11N88W TO 10N88W TO
10N86W TO 11N86W TO 12N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N88W TO 10N88W TO 10N86W TO
11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 30N126W TO 30N135W TO 28N132W TO 28N128W TO 30N126W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN E TO SE SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0350 UTC THU SEP 10...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 110W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N95W TO
13N110W...THEN CONTINUES SW OF T.D. FOURTEEN-E FROM 12N120W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED N OF 04N E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM
01N TO 08N W OF 122W.
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 10 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 11 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 12 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 165.1W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
10 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE...450
NM NE QUADRANT AND 390 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9 M. WINDS 20
TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 157W AND 170W. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF 21N BETWEEN 150W AND 174W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 161W AND 165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 169.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER N OF 27N BETWEEN 165W AND 175W WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 161W AND 173W.
ELSEWHERE SEAS 2.5 TO 4M N OF 24N BETWEEN 158W AND 180E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL N OF AREA 30.6N 172.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...AND 90 NM NE QUADRANT.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 166W AND 172W. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M OR GREATER N OF 24N W OF 164W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
SEE THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM NHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.LOW 04N148W 1009 MB. TROUGH 09N140W TO LOW TO 02N157W. LOW AND
TROUGH MOVING N 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF TROUGH AND
LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N148W 1007 MB. TROUGH 12N141W 12N145W TO
LOW TO 08N150W 10N157W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M
WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N147W 1006 MB. TROUGH 16N143W TO LOW TO
10N151W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M WITHIN 270 NM SE
QUADRANT.
.LOW 10N160W 1010 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N163W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 22N156W 20N157W 17N156W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 22N160W 18N158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH 22N162W 15N161W.
.TROUGH 21N141W 19N141W MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 28N141W 21N145W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N142W 24N144W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 30N145W 26N146W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N152W 26N156W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW DESCRIBED DIRECTLY ABOVE TO 09N163W
11N175W 10N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM S OF
TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=