TCMEP5
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
0300 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 107.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 107.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 106.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.3N 108.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 24.8N 107.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 107.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 13/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 15.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 44N176W 1012 MB MOVING NE 30 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
FROM 38N TO 45N W OF 172W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N161W 988 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 120 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N160W 978 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 120 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES...WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE
FROM 47N156W TO 43N159W...AND 360 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 44N166W TO
50N172W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO
52N BETWEEN 150W AND 174E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N158W 971 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W AND 120 NM
E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
37N TO 59N BETWEEN 134W AND 176W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5.5M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 61N BETWEEN 132W AND 180W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 64N167W 994 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. NW OF A LINE FROM 64N169W TO
59N180W...AND S OF 56N W OF 176E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 44N W OF 147W...EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED WITH LOW
44N176W ABOVE...WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 48N164W.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N168W 998 MB. NW OF A LINE FROM 57N179E
TO 62N169W TO 66N168W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N169W 1002 MB. N OF 52N BETWEEN 168W AND
175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 48N144W 1010 MB MOVING NE 20
KT. WITH AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 35N180W TO 50N146W TO
50N135W TO 43N137W TO 30N154W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4
M...HIGHEST NEAR 33N166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N132W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 53N130W TO 50N129W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 37N143W TO 50N125W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MERGED WITH LOW
54N158W DESCRIBED ABOVE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.S OF 41N BETWEEN 119W AND 136W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 36N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 60 NM SE OF
A LINE FROM 49N143W TO 44N151W...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 63N169W TO
58N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 54N BETWEEN 127W AND
133W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 58N172W TO 64N162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 64N TO 66N BETWEEN 163W AND 170W
.FORECASTER POCHE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 15.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.4N 107.0W 969 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 13
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 21N106W TO 21N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N107W TO 20N106W TO
21N106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 23N107W TO 22N110W TO 19N110W TO 17N105W TO 14N103W TO
14N101W TO 23N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.0N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS
TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N109W TO
20N108W TO 21N107W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 23N106W TO 23N108W TO 22N109W TO 21N109W
TO 20N108W TO 21N107W TO 23N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.8N 108.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 24N107W TO 24N108W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO 20N107W TO
21N105W TO 24N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 8.5N95.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 10N93W TO 11N93W TO
11N95W TO 10N96W TO 08N95W TO 09N93W TO 10N93W WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 11N91W TO 13N95W TO
09N99W TO 05N97W TO 05N92W TO 09N92W TO 11N91W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
10.5N98.5W 1006 MB. WITHIN 12N97W TO 13N98W TO 13N99W TO 12N99W
TO 11N99W TO 11N98W TO 12N97W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N95W TO 14N97W TO 12N100W TO 09N100W TO
07N98W TO 09N95W TO 14N95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
11N99.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 12N99W TO 12N100W TO 11N100W TO 11N99W
TO 12N99W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
12N98W TO 13N100W TO 12N101W TO 11N101W TO 11N99W TO 11N98W TO
12N98W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 12N95W TO 14N95W TO 15N98W TO 12N101W TO 10N100W TO 07N97W
TO 12N95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N101.5W 1003 MB. WITHIN 13N101W TO 13N102W TO 12N102W TO
12N101W TO 13N101W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N101W TO 13N103W TO 12N104W TO 10N102W TO
10N101W TO 12N100W TO 14N101W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 14N104W TO 12N105W TO 09N102W
TO 07N98W TO 11N96W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 17N136W TO 11N124W TO 14N113W TO
30N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 16N140W TO
16N120W TO 22N114W TO 30N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 24N111W TO 24N140W TO 15N140W TO
18N117W TO 24N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N
SWELL.
.WITHIN 02N99W TO 05N111W TO 04N126W TO 00N132W TO 03.4S120W TO
00N82W TO 02N99W...EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS... WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N99W TO 01N110W TO 01S120W TO
03.4S120W TO 03S99W TO 00N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N116W TO 03N125W TO 00N136W TO
01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S100W TO 02N116W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 31N115W TO
30N114W TO 30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N112W TO 31N113W TO 32N115W TO
30N115W TO 27N112W TO 27N111W TO 29N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC TUE OCT 13...
.HURRICANE SIMON...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 08N110W. ITCZ FROM 08N110W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00N TO 10N E OF
90W...AND FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W TO 100W.
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 15 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 28N159W 27N164W 23N167W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW.
.FRONT 30N164W 27N172W MOVING E 10 KT N OF 29N AND NEARLY
STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M NW OF LINE 30N155W
21N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N160W 29N164W THENCE TROUGH 24N167W
22N168W. SEAS LOWERED TO 2.5 M OR LOWER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N154W 27N161W 26N170W. TROUGH
DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 07N160W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 12N156W TO LOW TO 03N162W.
LOW AND TROUGH MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 12N
TO 07N BETWEEN 163W AND 153W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 163W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N166W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 12N162W
TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 05N168W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N167W
TO LOW.
.TROUGH 27N149W 23N146W 21N141W MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 21N155W 14N152W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 20N157W 14N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 18N161W 14N160W.
.TROUGH 21N163W 16N172W 11N176W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 15N TO 09N W OF 176W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 18N173W 12N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 26N BETWEEN 175W AND
166W...AND E OF LINE 26N140W 25N142W 20N142W 17N140W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 08N140W 08N150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM N OF
ITCZ AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ.
.MONSOON TROUGH 09N173W 08N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 06N BETWEEN 175W AND 170W.
$$
.FORECASTER TROTTER. HONOLULU HI.=