TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 161.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 140SE 110SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....390NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 161.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 161.1W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 90SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 165.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 167.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 40SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.7N 169.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 171.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 173.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 33.6N 174.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 161.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC WED SEP 09 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 11.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.SEE HFO PORTION IN HSFEPI FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 26.2N 161.1W 978 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
09 MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 220 NM NE
QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...110 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 390 NM NE
QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...360 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 330 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M NEAR 30 N. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO
35N BETWEEN 150W AND 166W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 28.7N 164.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM NE...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M N OF 30 N.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 39N BETWEEN 155W AND 170W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 28.5N 169.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM NE...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M N OF 30 N.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 160W AND 175W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 61N150W 1006 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. FROM 51N TO 60N BETWEEN
160W AND 133W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N134W 1013 MB. FROM 50N TO 61N BETWEEN
133W AND 158W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN COOK INLET WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 41N172W 1016 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. W OF A LINE FROM 31N180W TO
37N171W TO 47N166W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N177W 1016 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 63N173W TO 52N174W TO 49N180W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 51N178E TO 54N162W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 51N BETWEEN 119W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.S OF 32N BETWEEN 133W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N131W 1009 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N137W 1015 MB. FROM 31N TO 38N BETWEEN
154W AND 140W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N OF 53N E OF 137W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 48N BETWEEN 174W AND
160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 55N BETWEEN 175W AND
163W.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 9.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 11.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 27N124W TO 29N125W TO 30N135W TO 28N140W TO 23N140W TO
19N133W TO 27N124W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N127W TO 30N136W TO 29N134W TO
28N132W TO 29N128W TO 30N127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 01S109W TO 01S110W TO 02S112W TO 03.4S113W TO 03.4S107W
TO 01S109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S105W TO 01S108W TO 01N112W TO
01S115W TO 03.4S116W TO 03.4S100W TO 01S105W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N102W TO 01N110W TO 00N114W TO
03S117W TO 03.4S100W TO 00N102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN SE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N95W TO
15N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.42 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N87W TO 11N88W TO 11N89W TO
10N89W TO 10N87W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.LOW PRESSURE NEAR WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16N117W 1006 MB. WITHIN 19N115W TO 19N116W TO 19N117W TO 18N118W
TO 17N118W TO 17N115W TO 19N115W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16N122W 1005 MB. WITHIN 18N118W TO 21N122W TO 20N124W TO 17N124W
TO 16N123W TO 16N120W TO 18N118W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0350 UTC WED SEP 9...
.INVEST EP96...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO
21N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 01N TO 16N BETWEEN 89W AND 107W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N102W TO INVEST
EP96 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 16N111W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W...AND FROM 02N TO 10N W OF 125W.
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 09 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 10 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 11 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 26.2N 161.1W 978 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
09 MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 220 NM NE
QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...110 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 390 NM NE QUADRANT...300
NM SE QUADRANT...360 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 10.5 M. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 21N BETWEEN 149W
AND 167W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF 11N BETWEEN 147W AND
172W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 158W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 28.7N 164.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER N OF 26N
BETWEEN 156W AND 168W WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 155W AND 170W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 23N
BETWEEN 151W AND 174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 28.5N 169.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER N OF LINE
29N164W 26N170W 27N173W WITH SEAS TO 6 M. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND 175W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160W 24N170W 26N177W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
SEE THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM NHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.TROUGH 29N154W 26N156W. TROUGH MOVING NW 15 KT. WINDS DESCRIBED
WITH WARNING ABOVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM LOWELL.
.LOW 06N147W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 07N147W 1008 MB. TROUGH 10N142W TO LOW TO
02N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N148W 1007 MB. TROUGH 13N153W TO LOW TO
08N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 21N140W 18N141W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N140W 19N145W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 30N145W 25N145W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LOWER AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 09N140W TO LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO 03N150W...THEN
FROM 12N163W 09N180W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS S OF
TROUGH E OF 142W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 OF
TROUGH.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 02N BETWEEN 152W AND 162W.
$$
.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=