TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.8W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 103.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.4N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 102.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 127.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 48N160W 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 45N TO 48N BETWEEN
158W AND 163W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N144W 998 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
47N TO 52N BETWEEN 140W AND 148W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N138W 994 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND SE
SEMICIRCLES...ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 140W AND 151W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 60N148W 980 MB NEARLY STATONARY. FROM 53N TO 60N BETWEEN
137W AND 164W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 58N140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 56N152W.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N152W 998 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 56N138W.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 37N TO 44N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.FROM 38N TO 41N W OF 177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 41N W OF 161W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 40N BETWEEN 144W AND 153W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N173E 997 MB. FROM 46N TO 52N W OF 175W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.1N 104.6W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
21 MOVING ENE OR 075 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60
NM E SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5.0 M. WITHIN 15N102W TO 17N104W TO 17N105W TO 15N107W
TO 12N105W TO 12N103W TO 15N102W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.4N 103.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0
M. WITHIN 16N101W TO 17N104W TO 15N106W TO 13N105W TO 12N103W TO
13N101W TO 16N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.2N 102.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.5N 102.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO
7.0 M. WITHIN 16N98W TO 18N104W TO 16N106W TO 12N106W TO 09N103W
TO 10N99W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 13.1N 127.7W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
21 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...75 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. WITHIN
14N122W TO 18N126W TO 15N132W TO 13N130W TO 09N130W TO 09N126W TO
14N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.1N 130.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150
NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. WITHIN 20N127W TO 20N133W TO 15N134W TO
10N128W TO 10N125W TO 15N123W TO 20N127W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.6N 129.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 210 NM WW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M.
WITHIN 17N124W TO 21N127W TO 21N138W TO 16N139W TO 10N130W TO
10N126W TO 17N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 19N132W TO 23N136W TO 23N140W TO 16N140W TO 16N135W TO
17N132W TO 19N132W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 19N134W TO 20N136W TO 23N140W TO
15N140W TO 16N136W TO 19N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 18N139W TO 20N139.5W TO 20.5N140W TO
16N140W TO 16N139.5W TO 18N139.5W TO 18N139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN E TO SE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0350 UTC MON SEP 21...
.TROPICAL STORM POLO...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 16N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
.TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 86W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 100W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 16N98W. IT RESUMES
SW OF POLO NEAR 13N108W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W
AND 120W.
$$
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 21 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 22 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 23 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 14N143W 1007 MB MOVING W 10 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 16N
TO 25N E OF 160W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF N
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N146W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM
15N TO 25N E OF 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N153W 1007 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM
16N TO 22N E OF 158W
.LOW 12N160W 1010 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 24N180W TO 30N174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N180W TO 30N173W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 16N TO 22N E OF 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 14N TO 24N E OF 164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 13N TO 25N E OF 158W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW 2.5 M OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 12N140W 13N143W 11N150W 12N160W 06N177W 08N180W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH...AND
450 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 155W.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 07N W OF 173W.
$$
.FORECASTER FOSTER. HONOLULU HI.=