TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 111.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BEVEN=
TCMCP2
HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 168.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 168.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 168.1W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.4N 170.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.5N 173.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.9N 177.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 179.5E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.2N 176.5E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.9N 164.4E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.4N 156.6E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 168.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 03/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC FRI OCT 02 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 50N155W 991 MB MOVING N 15
KT...SECONDARY CENTER 50N164W 995 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 300
NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF MAIN CENTER...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF A
LINE FROM 52N165W TO 55N152W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NE AND 360 NM SE QUADRANTS OF MAIN
CENTER AND WITHIN 660 NM S...420 NM W AND 480 NM N QUADRANTS OF
SECONDARY CENTER...ALSO WITHIN 360 NM N OF A LINE FROM 52N165W
TO 54N153W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST MAIN LOW 56N152W 992 MB WITH SECONDARY LOW
DISSIPATED. WITHIN 60 NM N AND NW OF A LINE FROM 59N148W TO
58N151W TO 56N155W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ALSO FROM 53N TO 60N BETWEEN
134W AND 158W...ALSO WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
56N144W...40N143W...40N140W...50N134W...56N135W...56N144W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N150W 989 MB. N OF 56N BETWEEN 143W AND
153W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N174E 965 MB. FROM 50N TO 53N W OF 178E
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9.5 M. ELSEWEHERE FROM 47N TO 54N W
OF 176W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF A FRONT FROM 58N175E TO
57N180W TO 53N173W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M. ALSO N OF
44N W OF 169W...AND FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 170W AND 177W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N168W 975 MB. FROM 45N TO 56N W OF 160W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 56N W OF
150W...ALSO BETWEEN 150W AND A LINE EXTENDING FROM 53N143W TO
45N150W...ALSO N OF 57N W OF ALASKA WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.LOW 49N127W 1016 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 48N TO 51N BETWEEN
128W AND 130W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 156W AND 162W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR N OF 53N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 60 NM SE OF
A LINE FROM 50N156W TO 53N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 57N BETWEEN 138W AND
146W...ALSO FROM 46N TO 50N BETWEEN 141W AND 143W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 04.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.3N 111.1W 963 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 02
MOVING
W OR 265 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM
S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT...240
NM
SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS
TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W WINDS
20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M FT. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W
SW TO
W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF
THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.7N 112.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
110 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 M. FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W SW TO W
WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 M. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W SW TO W
WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3
M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.S OF 01N BETWEEN 107W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0
M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC FRI OCT 2...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
90
NM OF CENTER.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 15N96W...THEN RESUMES
W OF
RACHEL NEAR 15N115W TO 15N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
E
OF 83W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 86W AND
100W...
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W...AND FROM 00N TO 08N W OF
120W.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 02 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 03 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.3N 167.8W 984 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 02
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...80
NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.3N 172.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 6 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM OF CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 24.0N 178.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...100 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 450 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 11 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 15N143W 1011 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N147W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N153W 1011 MB.
.LOW 06N146W 1010 MB MOVING SE 5 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N144W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 08N180W 10N170W 13N166W...AND 07N155W 03N150W
03N145W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 00N TO 05N E OF
167W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 178W AND 169W.
$$
.FORECASTER PECHACEK. HONOLULU HI.=