TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 102.4W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 17/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=
TCMEP5
REMNANTS OF SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 110.0W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 110.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
SIMON PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 18.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 44N169W 1002 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S AND 300 NM
SE...AND 180 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N139W 1003 MB. WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 135W AND 145W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 57N150W 980 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 420 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM SE...600 NM SW...AND 600 NM QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N143W 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N144W 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 48N138W 1008 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM SW AND 240
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N131W 1002 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 48N TO 53N E OF
137W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 50N TO 55N E OF 135W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 300 NM NE OF
A LINE FROM 57N175E TO 51N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
61N177W TO 58N176W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 18.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.8N 102.5W 982 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N100W TO 17N102W TO 16N105W
TO 13N104W TO 13N102W TO 14N100W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 20N108W TO
13N110W TO 09N102W TO 12N99W TO 16N99W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 16.9N 104.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 120 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS
TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N104W TO 18N105W TO 16N106W TO
15N106W TO 15N104W TO 16N102W TO 19N104W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N102W TO 21N109W TO 19N113W
TO 11N113W TO 08N106W TO 13N101W TO 18N102W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 19.7N 105.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
20N106W TO 21N105W TO 21N107W TO 20N107W TO 19N106W TO 19N105W TO
20N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N105W TO 23N113W TO
19N114W TO 17N112W TO 15N106W TO 18N104W TO 21N105W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS
35 TO 45 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. WITHIN 14N94W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO
12N96W TO 12N95W TO 13N94W TO 14N94W N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N95W TO
14N93W TO 15N93W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. WITHIN
13N92W TO 15N97W TO 14N99W TO 10N99W TO 07N98W TO 09N93W TO
13N92W N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 03N100W TO 06N113W TO 00N127W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S94W
TO 03N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N97W TO 02N103W TO 07N111W TO 05N114W
TO 03.4S117W TO 03.4S94W TO 00N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N112W TO 02N121W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S112W TO 02N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N134W TO 30N140W TO 28N140W TO
29N136W TO 30N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N127W TO 30N140W TO 28N140W TO
28N130W TO 30N127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.REMNANTS OF SIMON NEAR 21.5N 110.3W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 22N109W TO 22N110W TO 22N111W TO 20N110W TO
20N109W TO 21N108W TO 22N109W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECITON IS OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 98W-104W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W
TO 09N95W. IT BEGINS AGAIN NEAR 10N101W AND EXTENDS TO 00N130W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 00N-09N EAST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 105W-121W AND FROM
04S-02N BETWEEN 129W-138W.
$$
.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 16 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 18 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 05N173W 1007 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 10N163W TO
08N170W TO LOW TO 02N180W MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM
11N TO 09N BETWEEN 177W AND 169W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS FROM 12N TO 03N W OF 166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 04N179W. TROUGH FROM 07N167W TO
08N174W TO LOW TO 04N180W. WINDS EASED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED JUST W OF AREA. TROUGH FROM 07N180W
TO 05N171W.
.FRONT 30N149W 28N151W THENCE TROUGH 24N158W. FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND TROUGH MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF FRONT AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH 30N152W
26N159W. WINDS EASED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N157W 26N166W.
.TROUGH 30N175W 27N176W 22N176W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF AREA.
.TROUGH 21N141W 15N141W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 21N148W 17N145W 14N144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 19N150W 16N149W 12N147W.
.TROUGH 09N145W 06N148W 03N149W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM W OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 07N151W 03N150W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 24N TO 16N BETWEEN 164W AND 153W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 24N TO 11N BETWEEN 177W
AND 153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN AREA BOUNDED BY 27N155W
20N175W 15N180W 11N173W 19N147W 27N155W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF LINE 30N145W 24N158W 27N172W 30N157W...AND
IN AREA BOUNDED BY 21N151W 17N154W 15N171W 10N171W 16N145W
21N151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF LINE 30N161W 23N167W
23N176W 12N174W 15N150W 20N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF LINE 30N160W 23N180W
14N180W 13N155W 20N140W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 05N151W 08N156W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM OF
ITCZ.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 03N BETWEEN 154W AND 150W.
$$
.FORECASTER TROTTER. HONOLULU HI.=