TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.3W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.5N 165.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.2N 167.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.1N 170.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.3N 173.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.8N 176.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.3N 179.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 13.1N 175.2E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 171.1E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 163.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 58N148W 960 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 60N147W TO 58N143W TO 57N143W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 59N143W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW...90 NM
NW AND N QUADRANTS AND N OF 55N E OF 145W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
4.5 TO 9 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MERGED WITH LOW 57N144W AND CONDITIONS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 48N154W 974 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. BETWEEN 300 AND 660 NM S AND
420 NM AND 720 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7.5 TO 10
M...HIGHEST NEAR 41N176W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 900 NM SE...S...960 NM
SW AND 300 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N144W 975 MB. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 360 NM
SE...120 NM AND 420 NM S AND 240 NM AND 540 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 11 M...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N138W 971 MB. E AND NE OF A LINE FROM
50N137W TO THE LOW TO 55N138W...BETWEEN 180 NM AND 780 NM
SE...180 NM AND 1260 NM S...WITHIN 1260 NM SW AND BETWEEN 300 NM
AND 780 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BETWEEN 4
AND 9 M...HIGHEST NEAR 43N142W
..48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N148W 978 MB. N OF 50N E 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 51N140W 972 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF A
LINE FROM THE LOW TO 49N134W TO 44N132W AND WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR 49N134W.
ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 55N E OF 142W AND WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 840
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N139W 973 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND E OF A
LINE FROM 57N140W TO 55N136W TO 53N137W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4
TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR 55N135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N144W 976 MB. NE AND E OF A LINE FROM
55N138W TO 59N145W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 59N140W. ELSEWHERE N OF 55N E OF 150W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 59N148W.
...STORM WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF THE AREA 47N172E 989 MB. FROM 36N TO
47N W OF 177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 48N177E 985 MB. FROM 38N
TO 48N W OF 174W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 43N180W. ELSEWHERE FROM 37N TO 50N W OF 170W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 4.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N179W 980 MB. WITHIN 720 NM SE AND
BETWEEN 90 NM AND 780 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO
7.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 48N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N158W 968 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SW OF A
LINE FROM 48N156W TO 51N168W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
M...HIGHEST NEAR 47N160W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 840 NM SE...900 NM
S...840 NM SW AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 660 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 10 M...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT. ALSO N OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS N OF 52N E BETWEEN 180W AND 165W WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M IN MIXED SWELL...HIGHEST NEAR 53N171W.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN THE BERING SEA N
OF 59N W OF ALASKA...IN THE BERING SEA N OF 52N W OF 180W AND
WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 54N150W TO 57N154W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 51N W OF 175W...IN THE
BERING SEA FROM 61N TO 65N W OF ALASKA AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
ALASKA COAST FROM 48N152W TO 58N137W...INCLUDING COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ALASKA COAST
FROM 57N152W TO 60N141W... WITHIN 120 NM NW AND N OF A LINE FROM
50N168W TO 53N159W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND NE OF LINE FROM
53N159W TO 50N150W.
.LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE BERING SEA N OF 63N W OF
ALASKA AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF ALASKA FROM 59N TO 63N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE
.48 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN THE BERING SEA N OF 60N
W OF ALASKA AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF ALASKA FROM 58N TO 60N.
.FORECASTER FUTTERMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 13N111W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 00N137W TO 03.4S99W TO
13N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 23N110W TO 30N117W TO 30N140W TO
00N140W TO 12N112W TO 23N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N118W TO 30N125W TO 23N140W TO
04N140W TO 05N129W TO 12N118W TO 30N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.WITHIN 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N95W TO
16N95W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 01S112W TO 02N115W TO 02N120W TO 00N121W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S112W TO 01S112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 10N110W TO 08N123W TO 00N132W TO
03.4S120W TO 03.4S92W TO 10N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 05N104W TO 14N108W TO 13N123W TO
00N130W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S91W TO 05N104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT W OF AREA. WITHIN 30N135W TO
30N140W TO 28N140W TO 29N138W TO 29N136W TO 30N135W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. WITHIN
30N134W TO 30N140W TO 25N140W TO 25N138W TO 27N135W TO 30N134W NW
TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
30N127W TO 30N140W TO 21N140W TO 25N132W TO 30N127W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N93W. ITCZ FROM 08N93W TO
09N129W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 08N133W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG S OF 14N W OF 100W.
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC NOV 10 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 11 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 12 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.7N 163.9W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC NOV
10 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE QUADRANT. WINDS
20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 11N BETWEEN 160W AND 167W.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...0 NM SE
QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 09N BETWEEN 153W
AND 169W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E
SEMI-CIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.2N 167.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN
162W AND 171W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN FROM 15N TO 10N BETWEEN
BETWEEN 163W AND 171W WITH SEAS TO 5 M. SEAS 2.5 M TO 4 M
ELSEWHERE
FROM 22N TO 10N BETWEEN 159W AND 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.3N 173.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 11N BETWEEN
169W AND 175W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 21N TO 11N W OF
168W WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 M TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO
10N W OF 162W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 08N164W 03N178W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 09N168W 06N174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 10N172W 05N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N149W 27N156W 26N165W. WINDS 20
TO 25 KT N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 25N140W 22N152W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 180 NM N OF FRONT.
.NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 21N TO 16N W OF 171W.
.24 HR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 25N TO 18N W OF 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 25N TO 11N BETWEEN
145W AND 167W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF 11N E OF 154W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM
21N TO 10N W OF 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 4.5 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N157W TO
26N170W TO 30N173W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
30N150W TO 25N180W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 25N TO 14N W OF 170W.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M FROM 20N TO 12N E OF 159W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 5.5 M N OF A LINE FROM 26N140W TO
22N152W TO 30N159W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
25N140W 20N155W TO 29N178W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 18N TO 10N
E OF 162W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA UNLESS OTHERWISE DESCRIBED IN TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ABOVE.
.MONSOON TROUGH 06N140W 07N160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
210 NM OF TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER THOMAS. HONOLULU HI.=