TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 109.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 18/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
1
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MEAN CENTER 39N175E 1009 MB MOVING
NE 35 KT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER 24 HOURS. FROM 39N TO 53N
W OF 161W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 47N168W 1005 MB
AND A SECOND CENTER 42N178W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT
OF FIRST CENTER...AND WITHIN 420 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH ONE CENTER 53N159W 1003 MB...
SECOND CENTER 47N170W 997 MB...AND A THIRD NEW CENTER 58N153W
1003 MB. FROM 37N TO 48N BETWEEN 164W AND 178W...AND WITHIN 180
NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF THIRD CENTER WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 43N171W. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 50N W OF
160W...AND FROM 46N TO 61N BETWEEN 142W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COMBINED LOW 55N151W 973
MB. WITHIN 180 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 5
TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 56N BETWEEN 146W AND 156W WINDS
35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M. ALSO FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 135W
AND 170W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 46N141W 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT THEN TURNING MORE SE AFTER
12 HOURS. FROM 39N TO 48N BETWEEN 137W AND 149W WINDS 25 TO 35
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N135W 1000 MB. WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N132W 996 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N
TO 51N BETWEEN 127W AND 141W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6
M...HIGHEST SW OF LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N131W 1004 MB. FROM 32N TO 41N BETWEEN
128W AND 136W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR
38N132W. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 44N TO 49N
BETWEEN 135W AND 143W...AND FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 169W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 127W AND
136W...FROM 43N TO 58N BETWEEN 147W AND 174W...AND WITHIN
180 NM W OF A LINE FROM 43N170W TO 32N177W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 60N BETWEEN 147W
AND 158W.
.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 20.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 19.1N 106.8W 970 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS
110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 75 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
19N104W TO 21N107W TO 20N108W TO 18N108W TO 17N107W TO 17N105W TO
19N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 18N108W TO 23N108W
TO 22N112W TO 17N114W TO 14N111W TO 16N103W TO 18N108W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 20.1N 107.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90
NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 21N107W TO
21N108W TO 21N109W TO 19N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N106W TO
21N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 24N108W TO 23N113W
TO 20N114W TO 19N111W TO 17N107W TO 19N105W TO
24N108W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 20.3N 108.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 21N108W TO 21N109W TO 20N109W
TO 20N108W TO 20N107W TO 21N108W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 21N106W TO 23N108W TO 22N112W TO 21N112W TO 18N109W
TO 20N106W TO 21N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 20.6N 109.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM
SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 22N108W TO
22N109W TO 21N110W TO 20N109W TO 20N108W TO 21N108W TO WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N95W TO 14N94W TO
15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 14N93W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W
TO 12N97W TO 09N98W TO 11N94W TO 14N93W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N94W TO
14N98W TO 09N99W TO 08N97W TO 09N94W TO 12N91W TO 16N94W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 13N92W TO 16N95W TO 10N101W TO 06N101W TO
05N95W TO 08N93W TO 13N92W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N95W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W TO
12N98W TO 12N96W TO 14N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 13N94W TO 16N95W TO 12N99W TO 09N102W TO
06N100W TO 07N98W TO 13N94W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5
M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 04N110W TO 07N112W TO 02N114W TO 03.4S118W TO 02S108W TO
00N112W TO 04N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03S103W TO 02S108W TO 02S113W TO
01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S101W TO 03S103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N94W TO 01S105W TO 01S120W TO
03.4S120W TO 03S95W TO 00N94W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N125W TO 30N140W TO 27N134W TO
28N129W TO 30N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N121W TO 29N126W TO 30N126W TO
28N131W TO 27N130W TO 29N127W TO 30N121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1530 UTC SUN OCT 18...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM OF CENTER.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 06N99W...FROM 09N107W TO 08N124W.
ITCZ FROM 07N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 02N TO 14N E OF 98W...FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W...FROM 04N TO 10N W OF 127W.
$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 14N144W TO 20N150W MOVING SW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 12N149W TO 18N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATES.
.TROUGH 13N154W 11N156W 06N157W 09N157W MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS E OF TROUGH FROM 13N TO 11N BETWEEN 151W AND 154W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 13N157W TO 06N159W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 13N160W TO 06N162W.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 148W AND 180W...AND
FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 155W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 30N TO 15N BETWEEN 145W
AND 166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 29N TO 14N BETWEEN 144W
AND 165W.
.SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M IN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N154W TO 30N140W TO
13N160W TO 11N180W TO 24N180W TO 25N165W TO 30N155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N159W TO
30N144W TO 18N145W TO 13N156W TO 14N180W TO 24N180W TO 30N159W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M FROM 14N TO 29N BETWEEN
145W AND 166W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 06N180W 06N175W 06N170W 04N162W
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120NM OF TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER KINO. HONOLULU HI.=