TCMEP5
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.8W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 106.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 36N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS
3.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 122W AND 133W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 45N E OF 144W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 42N BETWEEN 119W AND 138W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 36N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 63N170W 986 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
A LINE FROM 38N180W TO 50N150W TO 61N150W TO 63N175W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 48N174W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 63N169W 996 MB. NW OF A LINE FROM 64N170W
TO 59N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N TO
57N W OF 146W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N171W 1000 MB. NW OF A LINE FROM 57N179E
TO LOW CENTER TO 66N168W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N172W 1003 MB. N OF 52N BETWEEN 168W AND
175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 39N161W 1012 MB MOVING NE 20
KT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 38N180W TO 50N150W TO
50N136W TO 30N159W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 36N167W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 45N147W 1010
MB. WITHIN 600 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 32N180W TO 50N145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N131W 1004 MB. WITHIN 60 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 53N130W TO 50N129W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 37N147W TO 49N125W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N176W 1012 MB. FROM 40N TO 46N W OF 170W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N166W WINDS FROM 42N TO 46N BETWEEN 162W
AND 168W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N160W 986 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 180 NM
NE QUADRANTS...WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 300 NM SW
OF A LINE FROM 44N165W TO 50N171W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6
M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 152W AND 175E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 61N147W 999 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. N OF 50N BETWEEN 134W AND
150W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 59N139W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
A LINE FROM 52N138W TO 44N155W TO 41N159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 60 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
49N143W TO 44N151W...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 63N169W TO 58N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 54N BETWEEN 127W AND
133W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 58N172W TO 64N162W.
.FORECASTER POCHE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.8N 106.0W 956 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 12
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N106W TO 21N105W TO 20N107W TO
19N106W TO 19N105W TO 20N106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 21N106W TO 24N112W TO 19N113W TO 19N108W
TO 15N105W TO 18N104W TO 21N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.2N 106.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 23N106W TO 22N108W TO 20N108W TO 19N106W TO 20N105W TO
23N106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 22.4N 107.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N106W TO 24N107W TO
23N108W TO 22N108W TO 22N106W TO 23N106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 29N115W TO 30N140W TO 27N140W TO 28N130W TO 26N129W TO
29N115W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N119W TO 30N133W TO 23N123W TO
25N116W TO 30N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 31N115W TO 30N115W TO 30N114W TO
30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 31N115W TO
30N115W TO 30N114W TO 30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 00N98W TO 01N107W TO 00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S93W TO
00N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N117W TO 01N122W TO 00N124W TO
01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S116W TO 02N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
08N97W 1008 MB. WITHIN 11N93W TO 12N98W TO 10N99W TO 08N99W TO
07N96W TO 09N93W TO 11N93W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0230 UTC MON OCT 12...
.HURRICANE SIMON...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60
N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N91W TO 12N102W. IT RESUMES NEAR
16N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00N
TO 15N E OF 100W.
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 12 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.NEW COLD FRONT 25N140W TO 30N147W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 27N AND E
OF 144W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT 20N140W TO 23N146W TO
26N150W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 24N TO 27N E OF 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 23N
TO 26N E OF 142W.
.LOW 29N166W 1012 MB AND TROUGH FROM 24N173W TO LOW TO 30N166W...
BOTH DRIFTING E. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N167W TO
24N180W...AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 158W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 27N164W 1013 MB AND TROUGH FROM 23N167W TO
LOW TO 30N161W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N156W TO
21N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 21N165W TO 26N166W
TO 30N162W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 167W AND 172W. SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N166W TO 27N173W.
.TROUGH 17N151W TO 22N153W TO 27N155W MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 13N154W TO 19N155W TO 22N158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 15N157W TO 18N158W TO 21N157W.
.TROUGH 10N173W TO 15N170W TO 18N166W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 168W AND 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 12N175W TO 17N170W TO 19N169W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 12N178W TO 16N175W TO 21N165W.
.LOW 09N157W 1010 MB DRIFTING W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 06N
TO 08N BETWEEN 151W AND 154W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N160W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N165W 1010 MB.
.LOW 09N169W 1010 MB DRIFTING W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N176W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 141W AND 149W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 148W
AND 152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW 2.5 M.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.NEAR-EQUATOIRAL TROUGH 08N140W TO 10N149W TO 10N152W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N152W TO SECOND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO THIRD LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE TO 07N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS S OF TROUGH FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 133W AND 156W...AND
FROM 00N TO 05N W OF 163W.
$$
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.=