TCMEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.7N 124.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 129.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 132.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.4N 137.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 119.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 23.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 59N165W 998 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 600 NM SE QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
NW...120 NM NE...660 NM SE AND 480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 40N TO 57N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 57N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 49N TO 56N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW 43N130W
DESCRIBED IN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST SECTION BELOW.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N175W 991 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NW...240 NM
NE...AND 540 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE...660 NM SE AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 65N158W 1001 MB. WITHIN 720 NM SE
AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 840 NM SE AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 34N127W 1008 MB MOVING N 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N128W 1008 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N130W 1008 MB. WITHIN 720 NM W AND 300
NM E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 59N147W 1019 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE AND
480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 38N E OF 124W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 50N TO 55N W OF 177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 54N
BETWEEN 161W AND 168W...AND FROM 50N TO 56N W OF 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 150W AND
166W...AND FROM 50N TO 57N W OF 170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 54N BETWEEN 147W AND
158W...AND FROM 50N TO 55N W OF 166W.
.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUL 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED JUL 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU JUL 23.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FAUSTO NEAR 16.6N 119.9W 987 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 21
MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE
QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM
SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
33
KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 22N
BETWEEN
111W AND 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FAUSTO NEAR 17.4N 122.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
130 NM E SEMICIRCLE...110 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS
4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270
NM
NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
THE
AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FAUSTO NEAR 17.9N 127.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE...110 NM SW QUADRANT AND 130 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF
CENTER...
EXCEPT 300 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 134W
WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW PRES N OF AREA NEAR 34N127W 1006 MB. N OF A LINE FROM
30N124W
TO 28N130W TO 30N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 92W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF
OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.S OF 01N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0
M IN SE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21...
.HURRICANE FAUSTO...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM
13.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
85W
AND 90W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 07N80W TO 08N95W TO 11N110W, WHERE IT
BREAKS
FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO, THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N126W TO BEYOND
09N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
90W
AND 111W.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 21 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 22 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 23 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 30N177W TO 27N179W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF AREA.
.TROUGH 30N168W TO 27N170W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 07N165W 1008 MB MOVING WNW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 12N173W
THROUGH LOW TO 10N157W TO 16N156W NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 152W
AND 172W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 08N167W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 13N160W
TO LOW TO 10N178W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 08N169W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 13N164W
TO LOW TO 09N172W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 146W AND 178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 149W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 154W
AND 166W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 08N140W TO 09N151W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 152W.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 14N W OF 175W.
$$
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.=