TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......260NE 240SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 119.8W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 138.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 138.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.6W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 147.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 149.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 152.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 14.3N 154.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 138.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 31.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 59N143W 1002 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. FROM 55N TO 59N BETWEEN
149W AND 156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
48N TO 60N BETWEEN 135W AND 159W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N139W 1008 MB. WITHIN 780 NM S AND
SE...AND 960 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM 59N144W 993
MB. WITHIN 120 NM S...AND 360 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N TO 60N BETWEEN 140W AND
165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.IN THE BERING SEA N OF 59N W OF 166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST IN THE BERING SEA N OF 63N W OF ALASKA WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 61N W OF ALASKA WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH LOW W OF AREA. FROM 48N TO 56N
W OF 174W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N180W 1004 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND
NE...AND 480 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 42N W OF 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 53N W OF
154W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 58N W OF 163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 60N W OF 155W.
.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 31.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 1.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.0N 120.2W 987 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
30 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 260 NM NE
QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 160 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...240
NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N113W TO 21N116W TO
21N120W TO 18N123W TO 15N122W TO 13N115W TO 18N113W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N108W TO
24N113W TO 23N122W TO 11N126W TO 08N115W TO 18N108W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.3N 121.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.6N 123.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 170 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 140 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 360 NM NE
AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
21N118W TO 24N124W TO 21N127W TO 15N125W TO 15N120W TO 21N118W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
28N117W TO 29N124W TO 25N132W TO 13N128W TO 10N121W TO 19N111W
TO 28N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.0N 126.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...140 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 210 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N122W TO
24N125W TO 21N131W TO 16N129W TO 15N127W TO 17N123W TO 20N122W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
23N116W TO 29N122W TO 25N134W TO 20N137W TO 10N126W TO 14N118W
TO 23N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.2N 138.1W 1001 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
30 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E SEMICIRCLE
AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 16N136W TO 17N140W TO 12N140W TO 11N136W TO 13N135W TO
16N136W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.0N 142.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE. OVER
FORECAST WATERS E OF 140W WITHIN 15N138W TO 17N140W TO 11N140W
TO 12N138W TO 13N137W TO 15N138W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL W OF AREA NEAR 13.1N 145.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 140W
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 15N95W TO 14N95W TO
15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 11N86W TO 12N88W TO 10N92W TO 09N92W TO 09N89W TO 10N87W
TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 12N87W TO 12N88W TO 11N89W TO
10N87W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 29N135W TO 29N140W TO 23N140W TO 24N137W TO 27N134W TO
29N135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N107W 1007 MB. WITHIN 16N105W TO 16N109W TO 14N111W TO 09N109W
TO 12N105W TO 16N105W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
SW TO W SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N85W TO 08N90W TO
12N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
100W AND 105W.
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 30 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 31 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.0N 142.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 12N
TO 17N E OF 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL NEAR 13.1N 145.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 148W AND 144W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.LOW 08N166W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N170W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N170W 1011 MB.
.24 HOUR NEW FORECAST LOW 09N161W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N159W 1011 MB.
.TROUGH 30N171W 28N171W 26N170W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 30N150W 27N149W 24N148W 21N146W MOVING WSW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH FROM 16N162W 14N161W 13N161W MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 27N145W 23N144W 20N142W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
07N170W 09N163W 09N159W 08N149W 09N144W 12N140W
.MONSOON TROUGH 12N140W 09N144W 08N149W 09N159W 09N163W TO FIRST
LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO 07N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
210 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 145W AND 174W.
$$
.FORECASTER M BALLARD. HONOLULU HI.=