TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 109.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 109.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.2W
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.2N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.9N 108.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 108.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 109.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC WED OCT 28 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 30.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 51N165E 952 MB. W OF A LINE FROM
57N175E TO 53N172W TO 45N175W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N173E 961 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 300
NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 480 NM E AND 720 NM S QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A
FRONT FROM 51N171W TO 59N178E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N172W 967 MB. FROM 45N TO 53N W OF 167W
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 12.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 50N174W.
ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 57N W OF 161W AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 420
NM W QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 10 M. ALSO N OF A
LINE FROM 43N155W TO 31N180W AND N OF 57N W OF ALASKA...WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 60N163W 1003 MB MOVING N 30 KT. WITHIN 300 NM E AND 180 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT, SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF
46N BEWWEEN 168W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED N OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 52N163W 1013 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 45N TO 57N BETWEEN
155W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N155W 1012 MB. FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN
151W AND 154W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED OVER ALASKA. CONDITIONS AS
DESCRIBED WITH STORM WARNING ABOVE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 49N125W 1009 MB DRIFTING SW. FROM 43N TO 58N BETWEEN 125W
AND 140W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N128W 1012 MB. FROM 44N TO 51N BETWEEN
125W AND 136W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N127W 1010 MB. FROM 42N TO 49N BETWEEN
126W AND 134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 31N143W 1011 MB MOVING S 10 KT.
FROM 31N TO 38N BETWEEN 135W AND 154W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW S OF AREA. FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 135W
AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW S OF AREA. FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 133W
AND 165W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 48N TO 56N
BETWEEN 155W AND 166W...AND N OF 56N BETWEEN 164W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 48N BETWEEN 150W AND
156W...FROM 42N TO 52N BETWEEN 168W AND 173W...AND FROM 57N TO
62N W OF 169W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 172W AND
177E...AND N OF A LINE FROM 64N167W TO 54N177E.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 30.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 19.2N 109.2W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
28 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N107W TO
21N108W TO 21N109W TO 19N110W TO 18N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N107W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN
20N106W TO 21N107W TO 21N109W TO 20N110W TO 19N110W TO 18N107W TO
20N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 22.2N
108.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM EAST OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 22N107W TO 23N108W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W TO 21N107W TO
22N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 22N108W TO 23N107W TO 23N108W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO
21N106W TO 22N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 24.9N
108.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO 13N95W TO 14N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO
13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO
13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 02N105W TO 03N111W TO 00N123W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S102W TO
02N105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 04N115W TO 02N129W TO 00N129W TO
00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S107W TO 04N115W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N103W TO 06N113W TO 06N116W TO
00N124W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S97W TO 02N103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.WITHIN 30N134W TO 30N139W TO 28N138W TO 27N136W TO 29N134W TO
30N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N134W TO 30N139W TO 28N138W TO
27N136W TO 29N134W TO 30N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1445 UTC WED OCT 28...
.T.S. VANCE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN THE
NE SEMICIRCLE.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N85W TO 10N106W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
115W...FROM 02N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W...AND FROM 00N TO
10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 28 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 29 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 30 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 18N161W 1009 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. TROUGH 25N140W TO
15N154W TO LOW MOVING N SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 22N
TO 14N BETWEEN 154W AND 164W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SECOND LOW NEAR 28N140W. FIRST LOW NEAR
19N1554W.
TROUGH FROM SECOND LOW TO 21N142W TO 18N149W TO FIRST LOW TO
18N162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SECOND LOW MOVED E OF AREA. TROUGH FROM 22N140W
TO THIRD LOW NEAR 19N147W TO FIRST LOW NEAR 19N153W TO 17N161W.
.LOW NEAR 29N145W 1011 MB MOVING E 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
28N145W TO 25N146W TO 24N148W MOVING SE 20 KT. FRONT FROM LOW TO
30N145W MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH LOW AND TROUGH DESCRIBED
ABOVE. LOW AND FRONT MOVED E OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM OF A LINE
FROM 30N167W TO 24N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF 23N W OF 164W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 09N W OF 168W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF
28N BETWEEN 150W AND 163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M W OF A LINE FROM 30N149W TO
25N171W TO 15N172W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M W OF A LINE FROM 28N140W TO
25N161W TO 17N169W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR BELOW OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N140W TO LOW 07N151W 1010 MB TO 12N154W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 10N E OF 160W.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 18N162W TO LOW 14N173W 1009MB TO 11N180W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER FOSTER. HONOLULU HI.=