TCMCP2
HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 171.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 171.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 170.5W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.2N 173.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.3N 179.3E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.2E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.8E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 168.8E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.2N 160.4E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.8E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 171.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 03/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.9W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.3N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 112.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 05.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 55N152W 992 MB MOVING N 05
KT.
WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 58N146W TO 53N157W...WITHIN 240
NM SW OF A LINE FROM 44N159W TO 47N165W...AND FROM 50N TO 57N
BETWEEN 142W AND 150W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 60N BETWEEN 141W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 56N151W 994
MB. WITHIN 60 NM N AND NW OF A LINE FROM 59N143W TO 59N150W TO
56N154W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N151W 990 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NE OF A LINE
FROM 55N135W TO 60N147W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E OF A LINE FROM 49N139W TO 56N138W TO
60N149W...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3
TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 61N BETWEEN 131W AND 153W WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONED MERGED WITH
LOW 56N163W DESCRIBED BELOW.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA NEAR 52N165E 968 MB MOVING E 30 KT. FROM 41N TO
62N W OF 176W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N174E 966 MB. WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N176W 971 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 44N TO 55N
BETWEEN 167W AND 171E...AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 480 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N
TO 63W OF 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N163W 979 MB. FROM 44N TO 57N BETWEEN
147W AND 179W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN A LINE FROM 36N180W TO 50N135W AND 62N W OF 135W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED S OF
AREA. S OF 32N BETWEEN 169W AND 178W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED SW OF
AREA. S OF 32N W OF 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 44N TO 49N
BETWEEN 141W AND 146W...AND FROM 53N TO 56N BETWEEN 150W AND
153W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG NW OF A LINE FROM 60N177W TO
59N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER POCHE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 3.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 4.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 5.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.4N 111.8W 969 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 03
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS
100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N109W TO 23N113W TO 19N115W TO
13N114W TO 11N110W TO 17N107W TO 22N109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 24N107W TO 27N118W TO
20N120W TO 11N118W TO 10N109W TO 14N101W TO 24N107W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.9N 113.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E AND 180 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N110W TO 22N115W TO 20N116W TO 18N116W TO
16N114W TO 18N110W TO 22N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 24N108W TO 28N116W TO 20N123W TO
09N116W TO 08N111W TO 14N104W TO 24N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 115.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 22N112W TO 23N115W TO 21N118W TO 18N118W TO 16N116W TO
19N113W TO 22N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 23N108W TO 27N115W TO 25N121W TO 18N121W TO
10N113W TO 14N107W TO 23N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N96W TO 14N97W TO 14N98W TO 13N99W TO
10N98W TO 10N96W TO 12N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N95W TO 14N98W TO 13N100W TO 10N100W
TO 08N97W TO 10N95W TO 12N95W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0830 UTC SAT OCT 3...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 17N101W. IT RESUMES W OF RACHEL
NEAR 16N116W TO 15N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 00N
E OF 90W...FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W...AND FROM 00N
TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 03 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 04 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 05 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.3N 169.6W 964 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 03
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS
115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...210 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7 M. WINDS 20 TO 30
KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 164W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 167W
AND 172W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.6N 175.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
200 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...230 NM NW QUADRANT AND 130 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M ELSEWHERE N OF 19N W OF 167W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON NOLO W OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 24.9N
177.9E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 110 NM SE QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS...SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 130 NM SE QUADRANT.
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF 21N W OF
175W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 15N146W 1010 MB MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH 16N149W 12N150W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 14N155W 11N155W.
.WEAK TROUGH 30N165W 29N168W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 09N180W 13N171W...AND 11N164W 07N150W 09N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 164W...AND S OF TROUGH E
OF 164W...EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 06N BETWEEN 158W
AND 153W.
$$
.FORECASTER WROE. HONOLULU HI.=