TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 117.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON OCT 05 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 07.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.39 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW WELL W OF AREA. FROM 51N TO 57N W OF
173E AREA OF S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL W OF AREA. FROM 50N TO 60N W OF 179E
AREA OF S WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 52N
TO 59N BETWEEN 179E AND 179W AREA OF S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 57N155W 985 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A
LINE FROM 34N180W TO 50N130W TO 59N138W TO 60N178W TO 54N171W TO
34N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR
50N162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N148W 995 MB. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A
LINE FROM 31N172W TO 50N130W TO 61N139W TO 57N176W TO 49N180W TO
39N180W TO 31N172W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N147W 1014 MB. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
A LINE FROM 50N150W TO 50N127W TO 60N138W TO LOW CENTER TO
50N150W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NOLO CENTERED SW OF AREA. WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N180W TO 30N175W TO 33N180W TO
30N180W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NOLO CENTERED SW OF
AREA. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N180W TO 31N172W TO
39N180W TO 30N180W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.
.FROM 39N TO 43N E OF 126W AREA OF N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E OF A LINE FROM 43N128W TO 39N126W AREA OF N
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN 129W AND 125W AREA OF N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.N OF 62N BETWEEN 173W AND 166W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 59N BETWEEN 171W AND 165W AREA OF N WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N157W 1006 MB. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY A LINE FROM 30N180W TO 30N146W TO 50N127W TO 50N170W TO
41N180W TO 30N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.FORECASTER CONNELLY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 5.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 6.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 7.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.4N 116.2W 976 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 05
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS
90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120
NM NE QUADRANT AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 21N113W TO 24N114W TO 24N118W TO 21N120W TO 18N118W TO
17N116W TO 21N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N114W TO 26N119W TO 23N123W TO 16N121W
TO 13N111W TO 19N109W TO 26N114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.5N 118.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 180 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWEHRE WITHIN 23N116W TO 24N119W
TO 22N122W TO 17N121W TO 17N117W TO 19N115W TO 23N116W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N114W TO
27N119W TO 24N126W TO 19N125W TO 14N118W TO 17N113W TO 24N114W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 21.1N 121.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N118W TO 25N123W TO
23N125W TO 19N125W TO 17N119W TO 20N118W TO 23N118W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N117W TO
26N127W TO 20N129W TO 14N123W TO 14N118W TO 19N115W TO 24N117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
13N99W 1007 MB. WITHIN 02S101W TO 01S107W TO 01S111W TO 02S120W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S100W TO 02S101W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
13N100W 1006 MB. WITHIN 02S98W TO 00N103W TO 01N107W TO 01S120W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S97W TO 02S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N97W TO 17N100W TO 15N103W TO 14N102W
TO 13N100W TO 14N97W TO 16N97W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC MON OCT 5...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N85W TO 15N105W...AND FROM
11N115W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 05 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 06 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 07 2026.
.WARNINGS.
NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 06N151W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS NEAR AND SE OF LOW FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
146W AND 156W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.LOW 08N166W 1011 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 06N166W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N169W 1011 MB.
.TROUGH 27N147W TO 30N148W MOVING WSW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N154W TO 27N155W TO 30N156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 18N146W TO 20N148W TO 22N149W MOVING SW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 16N152W TO 19N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 16N154W TO 19N154W.
.TROUGH 11N158W TO 14N156W TO 18N155W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 11N159W TO 15N160W TO 19N159W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 13N162W TO 18N163W TO 23N164W.
.TROUGH 11N143W TO 14N140W NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG TROUGH AXIS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH BECAME PART OF MONSOON TROUGH.
.TYPHOON NOLO JUST W OF AREA. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 28N W
OF 177W. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 179W...AND 2.5 TO
3.5 M ELSEWHERE N OF 22N AND W OF 174W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED BELOW 20 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF
26N AND W OF 178W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW COLD FRONT FROM 30N161W TO 22N175W. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF A LINE FROM 30N164W TO 26N173W TO 26N180W. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF 26N AND W OF 166W.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 154W AND 158W. SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED BELOW 20 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 158W AND 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS DROPPED BELOW 2.5 M.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 09N140W TO FIRST LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO SECOND
LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO 12N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS UP TO
120 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 158W AND 164W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF TROUGH FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 170W
AND 174W.
$$
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.=