TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.3W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.5N 165.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.2N 167.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.1N 170.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.3N 173.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.8N 176.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.3N 179.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 13.1N 175.2E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 171.1E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 163.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC TUE NOV 10 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 56N146W 956 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 240 NM
NW...90 NM AND 240 NM N...120 NM AND 300 NM NE AND 120 NM AND 240
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 M...HIGHEST NE
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE N OF 53N E OF 156W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4
TO 9 M...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N141W 982 MB. NE AND E OF A LINE FROM
50N136W TO 58N143W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 58N138W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITHIN FIRST LOW 48N156W 972 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
SECOND LOW 49N146W MOVING N AT 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 180 NM
S QUADRANTS OF FIRST LOW WITHIN 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 8
M...HIGHEST NEAR 46N156W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM NE...660 NM
SE...420 NM S...600 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS OF SECOND LOW WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW 47N149W 978 MB AND SECOND LOW 53N139W
973 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND E OF A LINE FROM 54N136W TO 49N128W
WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR 55N135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 49N139W 972 MB AND
SECOND LOW 56N143W 976 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NE...660 NM SE...1200 NM
SW...BETWEEN 180 NM AND 1260 NM W AND 420 NM AND 540 NM NW
QUADRANTS OF FIRST LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M...EXCEPT
2.5 TO 4 M IN THE NW QUADRANT N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 58N144W 978 MB. BETWEEN 90 NM AND
300 NM SE...180 NM AND 660 NM S AND 180 NM AND 420 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED
SWELL...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 43N160W 985 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 540 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR
41N176W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 900 NM SE...SW AND 840 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 49N139W.
...STORM WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 47N171E 992 MB. FROM 36N
TO 47N W OF 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 49N176E 987 MB. FROM 38N
TO 48N W OF 174W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 43N180W.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N180W 983 MB. WITHIN 780 NM SE AND 720 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR
48N179W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N168W 972 MB. BETWEEN 90 NM AND 420 NM S
AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 12 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 48N169W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 900 NM SE...960 NM S AND 1080 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ALSO IN THE BERING
SEA WITHIN 480 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 360 NM SW AND W OF A LINE FROM 30N134W
TO 43N146W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7
M...HIGHEST NEAR 33N141W.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN THE BERING SEA N
OF 57NW OF 165W...IN THE BERING SEA WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FROM 58N158W TO 55N166W...WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW
OF A LINE FROM 54N151W TO 59N144W...INCLUDING COOK INLET AND
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE ALASKA COAST FROM 56N TO 59N BETWEEN 135W
AND 146W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG IN THE BERING SEA FROM 58N TO 63N W
OF ALASKA...WITHIN 60 NM NW AND N OF A LINE FROM 58N152W TO
59N146W TO THE COAST OF ALASKA...INCLUDING COOK INLET AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG IN THE BERING SEA N OF 62N W OF
ALASKA...WITHIN 180 NM NW AND N OF A LINE FROM 50N172W TO
53N167W...WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF LINE FROM 53N167W TO 51N159W
AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 56N150W TO 58N147W TO THE
COAST OF ALASKA.
.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN THE BERING SEA N OF 64N W OF ALASKA AND
WITHIN 60 NM W OF ALASKA FROM 59N TO 64N
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE
.48 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN THE BERING SEA N OF 60N
W OF ALASKA AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF ALASKA FROM 58N TO 60N.
.FORECASTER FUTTERMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE NOV 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED NOV 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU NOV 12.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 07N140W TO 04N131W TO 06N104W TO
30N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 23N111W TO 29N115W TO 30N140W TO
00N140W TO 14N116W TO 23N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N119W TO 30N128W TO 24N140W TO
06N140W TO 14N124W TO 30N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W TO
15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 04N109W TO 04N134W TO 00N138W TO 00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S100W TO 04N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 08N110W TO 07N123W TO 00N131W TO
00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S92W TO 08N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 06N106W TO 20N111W TO 06N137W TO
02N138W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S91W TO 06N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT W OF AREA. WITHIN 30N136W TO
30N140W TO 28N140W TO 29N137W TO 30N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W. WITHIN
30N134W TO 30N140W TO 27N140W TO 29N135W TO 30N134W NW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N130W TO 30N140W
TO 25N140W TO 30N130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
NW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N92W TO
08N95W.
ITCZ FROM 08N95W TO 13N127W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 08N132W
TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG S OF 15N W OF
100W.
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC NOV 10 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC NOV 11 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC NOV 12 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.7N 162.7W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC NOV
10 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...0 NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED
IN SEAS SECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN
157W AND 161W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 166.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO
4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.6N 171.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO
5.0 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONT 30N177W 29N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST 30N152W 29N155W 27N163W 27N170W 28N180W
.48 HOUR FORECAST 27N140W 25N144W 24N151W 23N158W 24N168W. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT IN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N150W 30N140W 27N140W 24N170W
30N150W.
.TROUGH 09N166W 07N170W 05N176W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 07N170W 04N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 05N177W 052180W.
.NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W.
.24 HR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN
157W AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 24N TO 11N BETWEEN
145W
AND 180W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N160W 30N140W 14N140W
11N180W
22N180W 30N160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 M TO 3.5 M N OF LINE FROM 30N152W TO
25N180W AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N140W 10N140W
10N180W 24N180W 23N155W 30N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 5.5 M N OF A LINE 27N140W 24N160W.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 160W...AND SEAS 2.5 M
TO 3 M FROM 10N TO 21N E OF 160W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA UNLESS OTHERWISE DESCRIBED IN TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ABOVE.
.MONSOON TROUGH 08N132W 06N136W 06N140W SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG TSTMS S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 154W AND 163W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH.
$$
.FORECASTER KINO. HONOLULU HI.=