TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 103.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 103.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.7W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 103.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 17/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 19.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 44N164W 1006 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. WITHIN 240 E AND 300 NM SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N
TO 47N BETWEEN 154W AND 172W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M...HIGHEST SW OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N146W 1007 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE...240 NM
S AND 180 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 139W AND 155W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M...HIGHEST S AND SW OF LOW.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N139W 1003 MB. WITHIN 120 NM W AND 180
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N134W 996 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W AND 180 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NW...300 NM W AND SW AND 240 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M...HIGHEST SW OF LOW. ALSO WITHIN 240 NM N
AND 180 NM E QUADRANTS AND 540 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N179W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 44N172W 1005
MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A FRONT FROM LOW TO 37N180W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 57N146W 986 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. N OF A LINE FROM 42N137W TO
45N150W TO 57N162W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 53N148W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1002 MB. N OF 53N BETWEEN 134W AND
155W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M...HIGHEST NEAR 53N136W.
ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 53N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N143W 1011 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 52N133W 1004 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
FROM 42N TO 53N BETWEEN 126W AND 137W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 240 NM SW OF
A LINE FROM 56N169W TO 62N177W...AND N OF 56N BETWEEN 153W AND
159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM
62N167W TO 64N173W...AND FROM 45N TO 48N BETWEEN 142W AND 146W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
53N157W TO 46N165W TO 34N177W...AND FROM 59N TO 64N BETWEEN 165W
AND 172W.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 19.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 103.4W 979 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 17
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND
120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W
TO 18N102W TO 17N105W TO 16N105W TO 14N104W TO 15N101W TO
17N101W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 16N99W TO 24N111W TO 12N113W TO 08N106W TO 11N100W TO
16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 18.6N 105.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...210 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS
TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N106W TO 20N107W TO 18N107W TO
18N106W TO 17N104W TO 18N103W TO 21N106W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N99W TO 22N109W TO
18N117W TO 07N116W TO 04N104W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 20.5N 106.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N106W TO
22N107W TO 22N109W TO 20N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N105W TO 22N106W
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
20N106W TO 22N106W TO 21N109W TO 20N109W TO 17N106W TO 18N104W TO
20N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO 14N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 14.5N95W TO
15N94.5W TO 16N94.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N94W TO
16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 13N95W TO 14N94W TO 15N94W N WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N94W
TO 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO 12N95W TO 12N94W TO 16N94W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 13N95W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N94W TO 15N96W
TO 11N97W TO 10N97W TO 10N96W TO 13N94W TO 15N94W N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 13N92W TO
16N95W TO 15N97W TO 11N98W TO 09N97W TO 11N93W TO 13N92W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 15.5N95W TO
14.5N95.5W TO 14.5N95W TO 15N94.5W TO 16N94.5W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N94W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 12N97W TO 09N98W
TO 12N95W TO 14N94W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 13N91W TO 16N95W TO 10N100W TO 06N99W
TO 06N96W TO 08N93W TO 13N91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 30N135W TO 30N140W TO 27N140W TO 27N139W TO 30N135W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 27N132W TO 30N128W TO 30N140W TO
15N140W TO 16N138W TO 25N136W TO 27N132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N125W TO 30N140W TO 26N140W TO
25N135W TO 27N128W TO 30N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.WITHIN 05N96W TO 15N129W TO 20N140W TO 00N140W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S84W TO 05N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N84W TO 03N97W TO 02N105W TO 06N111W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S84W TO 02N84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01N104W TO 07N110W TO 06N116W TO
00N121W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S92W TO 01N104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N
TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N94W...FROM 12N101W TO 05N129W.
ITCZ FROM 05N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
S OF 13N E OF 95W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N
TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 122W.
$$
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 17 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 19 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 07N173W 1006 MB MOVING W 15 KT. TROUGH 10N169W
09N171W TO LOW TO 04N177W 04N180W MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 270 NM OF TROUGH AND LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF AREA. TROUGH 05N168W 05N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 08N175W 09N180W.
.FRONT 30N149W 28N151W THENCE TROUGH TO 25N160W. FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND TROUGH MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH 30N150W
26N162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N162W 25N166W.
.TROUGH 20N145W 15N143W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 19N149W 15N146W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 08N149W 03N152W NW SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM W OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 09N156W 06N152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 07N150W 03N151W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 18N BETWEEN 155W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 25N TO 19N BETWEEN 156W AND
174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 27N TO 17N BETWEEN
150W AND 160W.
.SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M N OF 26N BETWEEN 151W AND 158W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 14N BETWEEN 167W AND
177W. SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M N OF 20N BETWEEN 146W AND 156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M FROM 27N TO 14N BETWEEN 148W
AND
166W. SEAS 2.5 M TO 3 M FROM 23N TO 14N W OF 170W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 07N154W 06N157W 10N165W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150
NM OF ITCZ.
$$
.FORECASTER THOMAS. HONOLULU HI.=