TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 101.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.2W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N151W 980 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS...AND N AND NE OF A LINE FROM 59N148W TO 58N140W TO
50N133W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 56N134W 996 MB. FROM 51N TO 56N
BETWEEN 130W AND 135W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND WITH CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 55N156W 976 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 480 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N149W 983 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N142W 993 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 43N176E 1002 MB MOVING E 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 300 NM
E QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N171W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 300
NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1004 MB. FROM 39N TO 46N BETWEEN
150W AND 160W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N178E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND NE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. FROM 58N TO 62N BETWEEN 173W
AND 180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N AND NE OF A LINE
FROM 57N156W TO 60N149W TO 59N140W TO 54N134W...AND N OF 57N
BETWEEN 158W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG SW OF A LINE FROM 61N178W TO
54N174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 17.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 13.7N 101.7W 978 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 15
MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 15N99W TO
17N101W TO 15N103W TO 13N104W TO 12N103W TO 12N100W TO 15N99W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
14N99W TO 13N104W TO 17N101W TO 15N106W TO 11N105W TO 10N102W TO
14N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 15.2N 102.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N103W TO 16N104W TO 14N104W TO
13N102W TO 13N100W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N98W TO 19N109W TO 11N111W TO
08N102W TO 10N99W TO 16N98W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 17.5N 103.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
16N100W TO 16N103W TO 19N105W TO 17N106W TO 14N104W TO 14N101W TO
16N100W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N99W TO 16N105W
TO 22N109W TO 17N113W TO 10N111W TO 10N103W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 19.3N 108.2W 999 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N107W TO 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO
19N108W TO 19N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N110W TO 19N110W TO
18N109W TO 18N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 20.8N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 22N110W TO 21N111W TO 21N110W TO
21N109W TO 20N109W TO 21N108W TO 22N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON NEAR 22.0N 111.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 22N111W TO
23N112W TO 22N112W TO 22N111W TO 21N110W TO 22N111W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIMON NEAR 23.1N
113.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 23N111W
TO 24N113W TO 23N112W TO 22N111W TO 23N111W...INCLUDING WITHIN
60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 31N114W TO 31N115W TO 30N115W TO 29N114W TO 28N112W TO
30N113W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 31N114W TO 31N115W TO
30N115W TO 30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
.WITHIN 03S107W TO 03S108W TO 03S109W TO 03.4S109W TO 03.4S107W
TO 03S107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S107W TO 00N110W TO 01S112W TO
03.4S113W TO 03.4S104W TO 01S107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S110W TO 00N111W TO 01S112W TO
01S112W TO 01S110W TO 01S110W TO 01S110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.27 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N95W TO
14N94W TO 15N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF F
TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO
13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2000 UTC THU OCT 15...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER.
.T.S. SIMON...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND
109W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 12N96W AND FROM 10N103W TO
03N118W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 03N118W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
106W AND 118W.
$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 15 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 16 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 17 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 05N174W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 04N162W TO
LOW TO 04N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 04N175W. TROUGH FROM 02N163W TO 04N170W
TO LOW TO 04N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED INTO TROUGH AND MOVED W OF AREA.
.TROUGH FROM 21N148W TO 17N148W MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH WEAKENED.
.FRONT FROM 30N149W TO 26N160W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST 30N150W TO 27N155W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 29N TO 27N BETWEEN 160W AND 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 151W
AND 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 24N TO 14N W OF 160W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 29N TO 27N BETWEEN 166W AND 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 25N BETWEEN 149W AND 169W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 20N E OF 160W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS S OF 11N E OF 161W.
$$
.FORECASTER FOSTER. HONOLULU HI.=