TCMEP5
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1500 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.4W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 106.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.1N 106.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 106.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW W OF AREA 48N178E 1013 MB MOVING SE
15 KT AND SECOND LOW W OF AREA 44N174E 1018 MB MOVING E 25 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS W OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N171W 996 MB AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N160W 979 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM
NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 50N158W 977 MB AND
SECOND NEW LOW 46N157W 997 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW QUADRANT OF MAIN LOW WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO
8.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 56N...AND WITHIN 600 NM W AND SW
QUADRANTS OF SECOND LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 45N151W 1012 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N136W 1007 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N131W 1004 MB. WITHIN 60 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 53N130W TO 50N129W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND WITH CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 64N168W 988 MB NEARLY DRIFTING S. WITHIN 960 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N168W 997 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE W AND NW
OF A LINE FROM 46N172W TO 53N179W TO 62N168W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N169W 1007 MB. N OF 53N BETWEEN 168W AND
180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 34N TO 42N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM S OF
A LINE FROM 52N133W TO 50N140W TO 47N150W TO 40N158W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND
144W...AND N OF 56N W OF 171W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 56N BETWEEN 154W AND
162W...AND FROM 56N TO 63N BETWEEN 168W AND 177W.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.1N 106.5W 962 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 12
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N106W TO 21N107W TO 20N107W TO
19N107W
TO 20N106W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N105W
TO 21N106W TO 20N110W TO 17N106W TO 17N103W TO 19N105W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST
HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.9N 107.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60
NM MILES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N107W
TO 21N108W TO 20N108W TO 21N107W TO 22N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W TO 21N107W TO 21N106W
TO 22N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.6N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS TO 4 M WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W TO 21N107W TO
22N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 23N107W TO 23N107.5W TO 22.5N107.5W TO 22N107.5W TO
22N107W TO 22.5N106.5W TO 23N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M
IN SE TO S SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 21N112W TO 13N122W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S97W TO 01N84W TO
07N109W TO 21N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS TO MERGE WITH AREA OF NW SWELL
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.WITHIN 31N113.5W TO 31N114W TO 31N114.5W TO 30.5N114.5W TO
30.5N113.5W TO 31N113.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... S
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 30N117W TO 30N140W TO 25N140W TO 26N131W TO 22N129W TO
24N114W TO 30N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED N AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N119W TO 30N140W TO 24N140W TO
24N133W TO 19N127W TO 24N116W TO 30N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED N AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 25N140W TO 19N140W TO 17N135W TO
18N133W TO 18N128W TO 20N137W TO 25N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 M IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N95W 1009 MB. WITHIN 11N93W
TO 11N94W TO 11N95W TO 11N94W TO 10N93W TO 11N93W E TO SE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 11N93W
TO 12N94W TO 12N95W TO 11N97W TO 10N97W TO 09N95W TO 11N93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
09.5N95.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 12N94W TO 12N95W TO 12N96W TO 10N97W
TO 10N96W TO 11N95W TO 12N94W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 11N95W TO 10N96W TO 12N96W TO 10N98W TO
09N97W TO 10N95W TO 11N95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN SW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
11N99W 1002 MB. WITHIN 13N97W TO 14N98W TO 12N101W TO 10N101W TO
09N99W TO 10N97W TO 13N97W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN SE TO S SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 11N96W TO 13N97W TO 12N98W TO
10N101W TO 09N99W TO 09N98W TO 11N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1430 UTC MON OCT 12...
.HURRICANE SIMON...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W-94W...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 10N89W TO 1009 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 08N93W TO 13N101W THEN RESUMES NEAR 19N114W TO 08N132W
TO BEYOND 08.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 88W AND S OF 03.5N BETWEEN 128W
AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 140W.
$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 12 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 13 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 14 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH FROM 27N151W TO 20N143W TO 20N140W MOVING SLOWLY S.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH FROM 26N153W TO 18N156W TO 16N140W.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 28N165W 1014 MB AND TROUGH FROM LOW TO 30N163W AND FROM
LOW TO 24N167W...BOTH SLOWLY MOVING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 30N161W TO 26N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH ABSORBED BY NEW FRONT MENTIONED BELOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N162W TO 27N170W.
.TROUGH 24N155W TO 21N155W TO 20N153W MOVING SLOWLY SW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.LOW NEAR 09N174W 1008 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N178W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENED LOW MOVED W OF AREA.
.TROUGH FROM 11N145W TO 07N147W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED TSTMS E
OF TROUGH FROM 05N TO 11N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH FROM 09N155W TO 06N155W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 270 NM NW OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N161W TO 06N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N166W TO 07N168W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M W OF A LINE FROM 30N168W TO 26N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 N OF 279N BETWEEN 166W AND 176321W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 2.5 M OR BELOW.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N172W TO
09N180W...AND S OF A LINE FROM 03N150W TO 06N180W.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW NEAR 09N174W TO 07N180W.
$$
.FORECASTER BLOOD. HONOLULU HI.=