TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 123.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 123.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.0W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.9N 127.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 35.9N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 123.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 55N165W 998 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. FROM 48N TO 60N BETWEEN 152W
AND 178W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N162W 1003 MB. N OF 45N BETWEEN 144W AND
156W AND FROM 49N TO 59N BETWEEN 144W AND 170W WINDS 2O TO 30
KT...HIGHEST NEAR 60N149W. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR
59N151W 1017 MB. N OF 45N BETWEEN 142W AND 151W WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 50N TO 54N E OF 136W AND FROM 39N TO 43N E OF 127W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 54N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 54N E OF 136W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 40N E OF 135W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 52N
BETWEEN 151W AND 161W...FROM 51N TO 55N W OF 177W...AND WITHIN 60
NM OF 64N168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE 46N154W TO
53N150W TO 57N145W AND FROM 51N TO 58N W OF 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 60N W OF 174W AND WITHIN
90 NM SE AND E OF A LINE FROM 46N152W TO 51N148W TO 56N147W.
.FORECASTER JOSEPH. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 20.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 18.9N 123.3W 990 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
18 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT...170 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM
SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N118W TO 24N130W TO 18N128W TO
15N121W TO 16N117W TO 23N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N112W TO 25N116W TO 25N135W TO
20N135W TO 09N124W TO 10N116W TO 18N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 21.9N 125.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N120W TO
28N126W TO 24N133W TO 19N131W TO 19N127W TO 21N121W TO 24N120W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
26N118W TO 29N129W TO 22N139W TO 15N135W TO 13N127W TO 14N118W TO
26N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 26.4N 126.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN WITHIN 30N124W TO 27N127W TO 28N135W TO 21N132W
TO 21N126W TO 24N122W TO 30N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 30N122W TO 30N135W TO 22N140W TO
13N133W TO 14N128W TO 21N120W TO 30N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...STORM WARNING...
.BROAD LOW PRES...INVEST EP97...NEAR 10N107W 1009 MB. WITHIN
12N104W TO 14N106W TO 14N107W TO 08N106W TO 07N104W TO 12N104W SE
TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...INVEST EP97...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR 12N111W 1004 MB. WITHIN 13N104W TO 16N106W TO
16N109W TO 11N113W TO 09N113W TO 09N107W TO 13N104W WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...INVEST EP97...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 13N115W 1000 MB. WITHIN 13N112W TO 14N113W TO
14N114W TO 12N115W TO 11N115W TO 12N113W TO 13N112W WINDS 45 TO
55 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N112W TO 18N116W TO
10N117W TO 09N115W TO 10N112W TO 13N109W TO 18N112W WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N108W TO 18N111W
TO 16N118W TO 11N118W TO 08N116W TO 08N109W TO 15N108W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 MIXED SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 13N96W TO 14N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N97W TO
13N96W TO 14N94W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 12N87W TO 11N90W TO 10N92W TO 09N92W TO 09N88W TO 10N86W
TO 12N87W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 12N88W TO 11N90W TO 10N90W TO
09N88W TO 10N86W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 00N109W TO 01N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S107W TO 00N109W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01N110W TO 02N114W TO 01N122W TO
03.4S120W TO 03S110W TO 01N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3 M IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 05N113W TO 06N118W TO 00N124W TO
03.4S120W TO 03.4S104W TO 05N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 08N99.5W 1010 MB. WITHIN
10N96W TO 10N97W TO 10N99W TO 09N99W TO 07N98W TO 07N96W TO
10N96W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 11N103W 1008 MB. WITHIN
13N101W TO 12N104W TO 10N106W TO 09N105W TO 10N102W TO 11N101W TO
13N101W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1530 UTC SAT JUL 18...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 240 NM SE OF CENTER.
.LOW PRES...INVEST EP97...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...CORRECTED
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 08N97W TO LOW PRES...
INVEST EP97 NEAR 10N107W...TO 12N113.5W. IT RESUMES SW OF ELIDA
AT 10N129W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM
S
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 84W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN
90W AND 96W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 90W AND
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 136W.
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 18 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 19 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 14N172W 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM
19N TO 16N BETWEEN 172W AND 169W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 13N177W. WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF AREA.
.LOW NEAR 05N152W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITH 180 NM OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 30N173W 26N176W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 169W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 19N TO 12N BETWEEN 158W AND 148W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 14N BETWEEN 174W AND 165W...AND FROM
24N TO 11N BETWEEN 157W AND 144W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 19N TO 16N BETWEEN 178W
AND 173W...AND FROM 19N TO 09N BETWEEN 162W AND 148W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 17N TO 09N BETWEEN 168W
AND 154W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 07N140W 07N144W TO FIRST LOW NEAR 05N152W TO
03N155W 03N159W 12N169W TO SECOND LOW NEAR 14N172W 13N175W
08N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 170W AND 166W...AND FROM
13N TO 09N E OF 156W.
$$
.FORECASTER PIERCE. HONOLULU HI.=