TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.2W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 130.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=
TCMEP2
HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 101.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 101.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.3N 104.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 106.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 102.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 24.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 53N146W 996 MB MOVING
NE 15 KT WILL SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS...AND A SECONDARY
CENTER 56N152W 997 MB MOVING SE 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLE OF MAIN CENTER WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE...AND 300 NM W AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ALSO FROM
43N TO 58N BETWEEN 138W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 56N142W 991 MB. WITHIN
300 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 48N TO 59N BETWEEN 133W AND 158W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N143W 1000 MB. WITHIN 300 NM
OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N172E 997 MB. FROM 45N TO 52N
W OF 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER
55N179W 980 MB WITH A SECONDARY LOW...POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE DUJUAN...NEAR 46N180W 990 MB. WITHIN 360 NM N
AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 37N178W TO 54N165W TO
62N171W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 35N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W N WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN 121W AND
128W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 121W AND
127W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 38N162W 1017 MB MOVING
E 25 KT. FROM 36N TO 40N W OF 159W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N149W 1016 MB. FROM 36N TO
40N BETWEEN 145W AND 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N137W 1010 MB. FROM 35N TO
43N BETWEEN 132W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN
60 NM S OF ALASKAN COAST FROM 135W TO 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 53N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 56N W OF 163W.
.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 24.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.0N 102.3W 967 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 22
MOVING ESE OR 105 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N102W TO 17N104W TO 16N106W TO 14N105W TO
13N102W TO 14N101W TO 17N102W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N102W TO 18N105W TO 16N106W TO
14N106W TO 12N104W TO 13N101W TO 18N102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.1N 101.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS
TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 18N104W TO 15N105W TO
13N105W TO 11N102W TO 13N99W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 13N98W TO 17N99W TO
18N104W TO 15N106W TO 11N104W TO 09N100W TO 13N98W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.5N 103.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240
NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...210 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO
19N105W TO 18N106W TO 15N106W TO 13N105W TO 13N102W TO 17N100W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
15N97W TO 20N106W TO 18N108W TO 10N105W TO 09N101W TO 12N98W TO
15N97W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 14.3N 130.3W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
22 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N127W TO
19N129W TO 18N132W TO 13N132W TO 11N131W TO 12N127W TO 15N127W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
16N124W TO 18N126W TO 20N133W TO 13N133W TO 11N128W TO 13N124W TO
16N124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.1N 129.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 70 NM SE AND NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...135
NM SE QUADRANT...AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N126W TO 21N131W TO 17N134W TO 12N132W TO
11N129W TO 13N126W TO 19N126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N125W TO 22N128W TO 17N135W TO
11N133W TO 12N125W TO 20N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.2N 128.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.5N 126.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N124W
TO 20N126W TO 20N130W TO 16N131W TO 13N129W TO 13N125W TO 19N124W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
17N123W TO 21N127W TO 21N132W TO 16N134W TO 10N129W TO 10N125W TO
17N123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 20N133W TO 21N137W TO 25N140W TO 14N140W TO 15N135W TO
14N133W TO 20N133W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0130 UTC TUE SEP 22...
.HURRICANE POLO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...
210 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 0 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE AND
NW QUADRANTS...AND 270 NM SW QUADRANT.
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT...
510 NM SE QUADRANT...990 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM SW CARIBBEAN SEA NW TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...NOT PRESENT OVER DISCUSSION WATERS E OF 140W
DUE TO HURRICANE POLO AND TROPICAL STORM ODALYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 22 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 23 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 24 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 12N146W 1007 MB MOVING W 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N
TO 22N E OF 151W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N152W 1005 MB...POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 145W
AND 156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 16N155W 1004 MB...POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 151W
AND 158W.
.TROUGH 27N150W 21N151W 15N148W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 25N156W 22N157W 18N156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 28N159W 23N160W 21N160W.
.TROUGH 29N173W 26N177W 22N180W NW SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 29N177W 28N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH W OF AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 14N TO 24N E OF 152W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 152W AND 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 13N TO 26N E OF 157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 146W
AND 160W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW 2.5 M OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 09N180W 05N169W 11N163W 09N150W 09N150W 09N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 02N TO TROUGH E OF 155W.
$$
.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=