TCMEP5
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 105.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 105.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 105.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.5N 106.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.9N 106.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 105.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
TCMEP3
REMNANTS OF RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 114.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 114.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 115.4W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 114.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL, PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/
RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.
$$
FORECASTER KELLY=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 11.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 12.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 13.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 45N BETWEEN 117W AND 135W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 60N152W 1000 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND NE OF
A LINE FROM 60N148W TO 59N143W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 53N BETWEEN 139W AND 143W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 61N173W 983 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. N AND W OF A LINE FROM
60N150W TO 54N150W TO 44N170W TO 44N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 48N177W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 64N169W 991 MB. BETWEEN 600 NM AND 960 NM
S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS FROM 41N TO 62N W OF 143W WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N169W 996 MB. N OF 62N W OF 170W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M . ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 67N166W TO
53N180W TO 51N175W TO 45N173W TO 43N175W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 48N150W TO 40N159W...AND WITHIN
180 NM W OF A LINE FROM 40N162W TO 34N166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 38N160W
TO 30N168W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N140W 1007 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND SE OF
A LINE FROM 48N141W TO 40N149W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N165W 1010 MB. FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN
161W AND 170W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 52N
BETWEEN 141W AND 147W...WITHIN 120 MN SE OF A LINE FROM 50N148W
TO 40N160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG NW OF A LINE FROM 58N179W TO 60N174W
TO 60N173W TO 67N164W.
.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 11.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 12.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 13.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.2N 105.3W 937 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 11
MOVING
NNW OR 345 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 155
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM
SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...60
NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND
110W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.5N 106.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER FROM 20N TO 22N E OF 106W WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE
OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 19N TO 22N E OF 107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W
AND
107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 21.8N 106.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N E QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM
21N TO 23N E OF 107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.REMNANTS OF RACHEL NEAR 35.8N 114.6W 994 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 11
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 25 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS
40 KT. OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N SW
WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N SW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.S OF 02N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0
M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.N OF 28N W 135W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
ELSEWHERE N
OF A LINE FROM 28N120W TO 23N131W TO 25N140W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 25N120W TO 22N128W
TO
25N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11...
.HURRICANE SIMON...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W TO
10N95W...THEN
RESUMES NEAR 12N120W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N130W
TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 95W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N TO 06N W OF 95W.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 11 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 12 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 13 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 29N167W 1011 MB AND TROUGH FROM 24N175W TO LOW TO 30N166W...
BOTH DRIFTING E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS E OF LOW...N OF 28N
BETWEEN 163W AND 166W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND
162W AND N OF 27N W OF 171W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF A LINE FROM
30N171W TO 23N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 29N165W 1013 MB AND TROUGH FROM 30N165W TO
LOW TO 24N170W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF A LINE FROM 30N168W TO
26N180W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N167W TO 25N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH FROM 30N161W TO
25N166W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF A LINE FROM 30N163W TO 27N172W TO
28N176W.
.FRONT 29N140W TO 30N142W MOVING SW 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF
FRONT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF LINE FROM 29N14OW TO 30N141W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH FROM 30N150W TO
22N142W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF LINE FROM 30N146W TO 25N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 19N151W TO 22N152W TO 26N153W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 19N154W TO 25N156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 18N156W TO 25N158W.
.LOW 08N168W 1010 MB AND TROUGH FROM LOW TO 12N170W TO 21N162W.
BOTH DRIFTING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240NM OF
TROUGH S OF 14N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N174W 1010 MB AND TROUGH FROM LOW TO
16N171W TO 21N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO TROUGH. TROUGH FROM 17N176W TO
10N177W.
.LOW 09N155W 1011 MB DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS NEAR
LOW FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 151W AND 158W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N159W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N164W 1010 MB.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 07N180E 08N173W 08N168W 07N162W 10N156W 08N151W
06N148W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS S OF TROUGH FROM 00N
TO 06N E OF 175W.
$$
.FORECASTER KINO. HONOLULU HI.=