TCMEP1
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.7W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.6N 125.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.1N 128.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.1N 131.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 138.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=
TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 139.8W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 140.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 01.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 59N140W 1003 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. FROM 57N TO 60N BETWEEN
150W AND 156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
46N TO 60N BETWEEN 136W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 60N147W 998 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 50N
BETWEEN 147W AND 160W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N146W 989 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.IN THE BERING SEA N OF 62N W OF ALASKA WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST IN THE BERING SEA N OF 63N W OF ALASKA WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 58N176W 1012 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED INTO LOW 59N146W
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 53N TO 57N W OF 170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR CONDITIONS ABSORBED INTO LOW 60N147W DESCRIBED ABOVE.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 56N W
OF 168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 58N W OF 156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 58N W OF 158W.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 31.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 01.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.2N 122.1W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 30
MOVING
WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE
QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR
GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM
SW
QUADRANT...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33
KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 113W AND 127W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.6N 125.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 300 N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES WITH
SEAS
TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NE
QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 116W
AND
132W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.1N 128.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...125 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 270 N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES WITH
SEAS
TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NE
QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W
AND
135W.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.3N 140.4W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG
30
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60
NM W
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60
NM SW
QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 137W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL W OF AREA NEAR 13.3N
144.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL WELL W OF AREA NEAR 13.5N
148.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL
STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM
SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20
KT
OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN NE
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT.
SEAS 2.5 M. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...PSBL TRPCL CYCLONE... NEAR 12N107W
1008
MB. WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5
TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...PSBL TRPCL CYCLONE... NEAR 14N109W
1007
MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20
TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30...
.HURRICANE KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
FROM
07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 08N90W TO
11N107W TO 10N110W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION NEAR KARINA,
LOWELL AND THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT N OF 04N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.
PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA.
SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 02N TO 10N W OF 115W.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 01 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.3N 140.4W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG
30 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.3N 144.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SW QUADRANTS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL NEAR 13.5N 148.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 75 NM NW AND SW QUADRANTS.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.TROUGH 30N173W 28N174W 25N175W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 13N140W 09N145W 08N152W 10N165W 08N171W
14N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM OF TROUGH W
OF 153W.
$$
.FORECASTER THOMAS. HONOLULU HI.=