TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.6N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 130.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.0N 132.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 136.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 120.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=
TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....510NE 240SE 270SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 168.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 12.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.SEE HFO PORTION IN HSFEPI FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL.
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 166.2W 993 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP
10 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 420 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM
SE QUADRANT...210 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN 170W AND 153W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.3N 170.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN
174W AND 162W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 31.4N 172.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER
EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.W OF A LINE FROM 50N180W TO 65N167W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 40N170W TO 64N161W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 52N178W TO 56N162W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 50N165W TO
65N160W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 55N180W TO 61N162W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N141W 1018 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. WITHIN 600 NM SE AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 660 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N128W 1014 MB. FROM 47N TO 58N BETWEEN
125W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N125W 1015 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 31N TO 40N BETWEEN 130W AND 152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN 140W AND 160W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 141W AND 155W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.LOW 44N180W 1018 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 50N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 50N
BETWEEN 180W AND 159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 58N BETWEEN 176W AND
161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 59N BETWEEN 180W AND
159W.
.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 12.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 16.5N 119.3W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
10
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM
NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM
NE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 16.5N 123.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM N
AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM
N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 17.0N 127.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120
NM
N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210
NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5
TO 4 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED
WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE
TO
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.S OF 00N BETWEEN 96W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. S OF 00N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT
OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 M PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00S BETWEEN 107W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 M PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU SEP 10...
.TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14.5N
TO 17.5N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W.
..TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N100W TO
10N111W,
THEN CONTINUES SW OF T.S. NORBERT FROM 12N120W TO 10N140W. IN
ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AND THE
TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 89W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 00N
TO
10N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 10 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 11 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 12 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.1N 167.7W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
10 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM NE
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 130 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND
173W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE
QUADRANT...300 NM SW QUADRANT AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
8 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 155W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE FROM CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 29.2N 171.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN 164W AND
175W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER N OF 28N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W WITH
SEAS
TO 5.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL N OF AREA. WINDS 20 TO 25
KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 166W AND 170W. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF 27N W
OF 166W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
SEE THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM NHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.LOW 05N150W 1008 MB MOVING N SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N147W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 12N
TO 14B BETWEEN 143W AND 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N147W 1005 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
85 NM NE SEMICIRCLE FROM CENTER.
.LOW 10N160W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 09N
TO 12N BETWEEN 159W AND 166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N157W 1009 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.TROUGH 17N157W TO 20N158W TO 24N158W MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 13N160W TO 16N160W TO 21N161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 14N163W TO 17N163W TO 23N165W.
.TROUGH 17N145W TO 21N142W TO 23N140W MOVING NW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 18N147W TO 22N146W TO 28N141W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 19N150W TO 21N147W TO 25N145W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 26N149W TO 30N149W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 26N154W TO 30N153W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 28N BETWEEN 147W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW 2.5 M.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO FIRST LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO
SECOND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO 11N170W TO 10N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR TROUGH FROM 00N TO 13N E OF 156W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS S OF TROUGH FROM 00N TO 04N W
OF 156W.
.FORECASTER CHAN. HONOLULU HI.
$$=