TCMCP2
HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 178.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 178.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 177.8W
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 178.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.5W
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.3N 122.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 127.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 113.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 06.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 55N173W 973 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 660 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M...EXCEPT 3 TO 6 M IN SE
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NW...660 NM NE...960 NM SE AND
840 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N156W 986 MB. WITHIN 600 NM NW...240 NM
NE...900 NM SE AND 1260 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3
TO 6 M...EXCEPT TO 3.5 M IN N SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N149W 1000 MB WITHIN 720 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 600 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 59N148W 989 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED S OF AREA. S OF 34N
W OF 165W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED SW OF
AREA. S OF 34N W OF 175W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO MOVED
W AND SW OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 54N W OF 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
60N177W TO 59N180W...AND FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 06.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 113.8W 965 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04
MOVING
WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM
NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210
NM
SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
109W AND 117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
THE
AREA FROM 11N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.5N 115.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
FROM
16N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W
WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.7N 119.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT.
SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
110W AND 119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN OCT 4...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 75
NM
OF CENTER.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N90W TO 14N106W, THEN
RESUMES W OF RACHEL NEAR 11N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
88W
AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 04N TO 09N W OF 126W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 04 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 05 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 06 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE NOLO NEAR 23.8N 178.5W 963 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04 MOVING
W OR 275 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120
KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE...110 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF 170W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...210
NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 30N170W
23N170W
17N175W 18N180W. NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON NOLO NEAR 24.9N 175.8E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED
WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS W OF
FORECAST
AREA. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 22N TO 29N W OF 177W. SEAS 4 TO 4.5 M
FROM 25N TO 29N W OF 179W. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE W OF LINE
30N176W 25N175W 21N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON NOLO FAR W OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 25.0N
168.4E. WINDS OVER FORECAST AREA EASED TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3 M N OF 27N W OF 179W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 04N152W 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. SEE TSTMS WITH MONSOON
TROUGH
BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N157W 1009 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N164W 1010 MB.
.TROUGH 16N151W 10N151W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 15N154W TO 09N156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.TROUGH 30N148W 28N150W MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N147W 26N148W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN
151W
AND 157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 15N
TO
22N BETWEEN 154W AND 163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS LOWERED TO 2.5
M
OR LESS.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N140W TO LOW AT 04N152W TO 07N164W TO 09N170W TO
11N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 146W AND 164W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
TROUGH W OF 170W.
$$
.FORECASTER WROE. HONOLULU HI.=