TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 156.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 156.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 155.6W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.6N 157.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.6N 159.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.3N 165.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.2N 167.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 11.6N 174.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 13.6N 179.7E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 156.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN NOV 08 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 42N133W 982 MB MOVING NE 15 KT AND
SECOND CENTER 54N134W 983 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M.
ALSO WITHIN 600 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...AND
WITHIN 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF BOTH CENTERS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 4.5 TO 10 M...HIGHEST NEAR 48N131W. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE
OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...FROM 31N TO 56N BETWEEN 123W AND 141W WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST S AND SW OF COMPLEX LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 34N TO 45N
E OF 132W...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 47N150W 976 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 660 NM SE AND 840 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST S AND SW OF CENTER.
ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 54N BETWEEN 141W AND 160W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 48N148W 969 MB.
WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF A FRONT FROM
MAIN CENTER TO 50N147W TO 47N144W TO 42N144W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 59N145W 958 MB.
WITHIN 150 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 52N143W 957 MB
AND NEW SECOND CENTER NEAR 55N146W 968 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE OF FIRST CENTER...AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF A FRONT FROM
SECOND CENTER TO 56N146W TO 55N140W TO 51N135W TO 47N133W WINDS
40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 M...HIGHEST S AND SE OF FIRST CENTER.
ALSO...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...FROM N OF 33N BETWEEN
126W AND 154W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 59N150W 964
MB. BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50
KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE
DESCRIBED...N OF 52N W OF 165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5
M...HIGHEST S OF ALASKA E OF 157W.
...STORM WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N178E 996 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM
AND 540 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 50N W OF 172W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW 46N150W
BELOW.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 47N179W 990 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...AND SECOND CENTER 44N175W 998 MB MOVING NE
35 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...AND
FROM 33N TO 44N W OF 160W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 49N166W 972 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 47N157W 982 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
FIRST CENTER WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 720 NM
SE AND 900 NM SW QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...AND WITHIN 660 NM SE
AND 900 NM SW QUADRANTS OF SECOND CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
3 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SECOND CENTER DESCRIBED WITH LOW 53N138W BELOW.
COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 46N157W 976 MB AND NEW SECOND
CENTER NEAR 46N150W 970 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF FIRST
CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...S OF 52N W OF 138W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 9 M...HIGHEST CONDITIONS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 41N170W TO 40N150W.
...STORM WARNING...
.36 HOUR FORECAST NEW COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 48N145W
976 MB. WITHIN 540 NM E...780 NM SE...AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N138W 972 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF A FRONT
FROM 55N136W TO 54N132W TO 49N129W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...FROM 41N TO 58N
BETWEEN 124W AND 143W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
48N126W TO 58N138W...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
47N148W TO 58N155W...N OF 60N W OF ALASKA...AND FROM 47N TO 54N W
OF 173W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 53N BETWEEN 143W AND 155W...N OF
57N BETWEEN ALASKA AND 177W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 48N150W TO 49N170W TO 54N172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 54N BETWEEN 145W AND 156W...NE
OF A LINE FROM 47N128W TO 57N138W...FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 154W
AND 160W...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 50N180W TO 64N165W.
.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY N OF 65N W OF ALASKA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY N OF 63N W OF ALASKA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.FORECASTER ANDERSON. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN NOV 8.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 9.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 10.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 16N93W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 13N96W TO 13N95W TO 14N94W
TO 16N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N93W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 13N96W TO
13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N93W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 13N96W TO
13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 12N87W TO 12N88W TO 11N89W TO 10N88W TO 10N86W TO 11N86W
TO 12N87W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N87W TO 12N90W TO 10N90W TO 10N88W TO
11N86W TO 12N87W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 12N86W TO 11N87W TO 10N88W TO
10N87W TO 10N86W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 24N112W TO 29N115W TO 30N140W TO 05N140W TO 12N122W TO
24N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N120W TO 30N140W TO 10N140W TO
12N113W TO 17N109W TO 30N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 09N140W TO
17N122W TO 30N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.WITHIN 02N99W TO 04N110W TO 00N132W TO 02S120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S94W TO 02N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
AND SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 09N108W TO 10N126W TO 08N132W TO
00N131W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S101W TO 09N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N111W TO 11N117W TO 00N127W TO
03.4S120W TO 03.4S99W TO 12N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW AND SE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1400 UTC SUN NOV 8...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N88W TO 06N97W.
ITCZ FROM 06N97W TO 09N116W. IT RESUMES NEAR 06N129W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 14N E
OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W.
ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 132W.
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 08 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.6N 156.1W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
08 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT.
WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 150W AND 180W.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT
AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M
ELSEWHERE
DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 06N TO
17N
BETWEEN 147W AND 157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.6N 159.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 150W AND 180W. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER
260 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE
DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 163.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 20 NM SE QUADRANT. WINDS 20
TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 151W AND 180W. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONT 30N143W 25N158W THENCE TROUGH 22N166W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH 30N142W 26N153W
22N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N140W 27N154W 22N165W.
.LOW NEAR 04N164W 1007 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS S OF LOW BETWEEN 160W AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND MERGED INTO MONSOON TROUGH.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 10N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 161W...
AND FROM 12N TO 30N E OF 161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 157W...
AND FROM 11N TO 30N E OF 157W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 06N140W 10N148W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 06N TO 11N
E OF 147W.
.MONSOON TROUGH 08N157W TO LOW TO 05N172W TO 05N180W.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 16N175W 09N167W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 145W AND 158W.
$$
.FORECASTER VAUGHAN. HONOLULU HI.=