TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.5W
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.4N 108.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU OCT 29 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER W OF AREA 51N168E
958 MB MOVING NE 25 KT...AND A SECONDARY CENTER
56N174E 975 MB MOVING SW 15 KT WILL TURN E AFTER
12 HOURS. FROM 46N TO 60N W OF 170W WINDS 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 40N TO 61W W OF
167W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER
52N173W 965 MB. FROM 50N TO 54N W OF 175W WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH COMBINED MAIN
CENTER 56N172W 967 MB...AND A NEW SECONDARY
CENTER TO FORM NEAR 61N173W 972 MB. FROM 44N TO
53N W OF 170W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO 57N W OF 164W...AND N OF
57N W OF 179W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M. ALSO
N AND NW OF A LINE FROM 56N156W TO 41N166W TO
33N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 57N163W 978 MB.
WITHIN 1140 NM S AND SW...AND 660 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 38N W OF 151W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
...STORM WARNING...
LOW 55N158W 1012 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. N OF 58N
BETWEEN 151W AND 153W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 54N BETWEEN 148W AND 154W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. N OF A LINE FROM
56N155W TO 60N146W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 50N BETWEEN 143W AND 156W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.42 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR 60N148W
990 MB. N OF 49N BETWEEN 140W AND 148W WINDS 35 TO
50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N149W 990 MB. N OF 59N
BETWEEN 140W AND 144W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 47N BETWEEN 135W AND 145W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N W OF 166W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 171W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO
36N W OF 164W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ASSOCIATED WITH LOW S OF AREA FROM 30N TO 37N
BETWEEN 134W AND 160W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 135W AND 148W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N OF
43N BETWEEN 150W AND 163W...AND FROM 43N TO 59N W
OF 169W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N AND NW OF A LINE
FROM 50N180W TO 63N163W...AND WITHIN 540 NM E AND NE
OF A LINE FROM 43N165W TO 57N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 54N BETWEEN 165W
AND 171W...AND N OF 44N BETWEEN 140W AND 147W.
.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 31.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 21.0N 108.4W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
29 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE
...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N105W TO 23N107W
TO 23N109W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO 20N106W TO
22N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N107W TO 23N110W TO
21N111W TO 19N107W TO 19N105W TO 21N105W TO 24N107W...INCLUDING
NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE NEAR 22.0N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 23.4N
108.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN
24N107W TO 25N109W TO 25N110W TO 24N110W TO 23N110W TO 23N108W TO
24N107W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERY GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N137W TO LOW PRES NEAR 28N138W 1015 MB TO
24.5N140W. WITHIN 30N136.5W TO 30N137W TO 29.5N137W TO
29.5N136.5W TO 30N136.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN E TO SE SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N95W TO 14N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 04N116W TO 03N128W TO 00N135W TO 00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S108W TO 04N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED NE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 06N113W TO 05N126W TO 00N128W TO
00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S100W TO 06N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N94W TO 01S101W TO 02N105W TO 00N120W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S85W TO 00N94W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN SW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N87W TO 11N88W TO 10N88W TO
10N86W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0600 UTC THU OCT 29...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN 45
NM AND 420 NM NE QUADRANT.
.FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N137W TO LOW PRES NEAR 28N138W 1015 MB TO
24.5N140W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 129W AND
140W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 03N94W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00.5N TO 06.5N
BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND FROM 00N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND
140W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 29 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 30 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 28N142W 1011 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 20N144W
18N149W MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED E OF AREA. TROUGH 28N140W 25N142W
20N149W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.LOW 15N165W 1009 MB MOVING SE SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 17N157W
15N155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N164W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 15N155W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.LOW 15N175W 1009 MB MOVING E 5 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N173W 1009 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 18N175W 1009 MB.
.LOW 05N143W 1010 MB MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N150W 1010 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N155W 1011 MB.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 143W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF 20N W OF 169W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 25N W OF 175W...AND N OF 28N
BETWEEN 165W AND 150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M N OF LINE 18N180W 27N160W
29N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF LINE 17N180W 22N169W
25N165W 30N165W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N180W 15N170W 18N164W...AND 12N155W 05N150W
06N145W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
175W AND 170W...AND FROM EQUATOR TO 07N E OF 147W...AND FROM
EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 165W AND 159W.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 177W AND 174W.
$$
.FORECASTER PECHACEK. HONOLULU HI.=