TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 129.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 49N151W 1004 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S AND 360
NM W QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N144W 998 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 994 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
NE...540 NM SE...660 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N143W 995 MB. WITHIN 360 NM N N
SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SE...AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N154W 993 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 52N BETWEEN 140W
AND 170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N150W 1001 MB. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 54N141W.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 37N TO 44N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.FROM 38N TO 41N W OF 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 40N BETWEEN 156W AND 178W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N147W 1016 MB. FROM 36N TO 40N BETWEEN
142W AND 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 57N W OF 174W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ALASKAN COAST FROM 135W TO 151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 53N W OF 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 54N W OF 175W.
.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.4N 103.4W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50
NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N102W TO 18N104W TO 16N107W TO 14N107W
TO 12N105W TO 13N103W TO 15N102W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.2N 102.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.1N 102.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 120 N W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN
15N100W TO 18N102W TO 15N106W TO 12N104W TO 13N101W TO 15N100W
WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.0N 102.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N98W TO 19N104W TO 17N106W TO 13N107W TO
08N99W
TO 10N98W TO 14N98W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 13.9N 129.3W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
21 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N124W TO 18N131W
TO
15N135W TO 13N131W TO 09N130W TO 13N124W TO 15N125W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.2N 129.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT
AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N125W
TO 21N131W TO 19N136W TO 15N136W TO 11N130W TO 15N124W TO 18N125W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.6N 127.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM
NE SE AND NW QUADRANTS AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N126W TO 19N130W TO 15N132W TO 10N130W TO
13N125W
TO 18N126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 16N124W TO 22N135W TO 22N135W TO 15N137W TO 10N130W TO
16N124W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 N IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 20N134W TO 23N136W TO 24N140W TO 16N140W TO 17N133W TO
20N134W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 19N136W TO 20N136W TO 21N140W TO
14N140W TO 15N137W TO 19N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN E TO SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 22N135W TO 21N136W TO 21N140W TO 15N140W
TO 14N135W TO 22N135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M
IN E TO SE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1515 UTC MON SEP 21...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
05N TO 09N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W.
.TROPICAL STORM POLO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT 180 NE QUADRANT.
.TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W N OF 01N...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 09N89W TO 12N97W. IT
RESUMES SW OF POLO AT 13N108W TO 12N115W TO 16N123W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN
85W AND 88W.
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 21 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 22 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 23 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 12N145W 1006 MB MOVING W 10 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N
TO 17N E OF 145W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N149W 1008 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM
20N TO 17N BETWEEN 151W AND 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N153W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM
19N TO 16N BETWEEN 155W AND 150W.
.TROUGH 29N174W 26N179W 21N180W MOVING NW 10 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N179W 28N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH W OF AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 21N TO 16N E OF 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 25N TO 15N E OF 153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 24N TO 25N E OF 157W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW 2.5 M OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N140W 12N144W AND 11N147W 12N160W
07N169W 10N180W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E 158W.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 07N E OF 154W.
$$
.FORECASTER THOMAS. HONOLULU HI.=