TCMCP2
HURRICANE LALA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 156.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 156.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 155.7W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 157.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.2N 160.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 163.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 165.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.1N 167.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.3N 169.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.5N 172.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.9N 175.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 156.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 16/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 18.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 53N163W 994 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 58N163W 990 MB. FROM
47N TO 58N BETWEEN 142W AND 175W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 64N163W 998 MB. N OF 63N BETWEEN 166W AND
171W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 55N TO 60N
BETWEEN 146W AND 170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 43N172W 1003 MB MOVING E 10 KT AND
TURNING NE 15 KT AFTER 18 HOURS. WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
47N161W TO 45N168W TO 39N176W TO 33N180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N171W 1010 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 120
NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N165W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 50N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N OF 57N BETWEEN
167W AND 178W...FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 154W AND 165W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 47N164W TO 43N172W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 59N BETWEEN 145W AND
159W...AND N OF 56N BETWEEN 158W AND 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM
47N163W TO 48N156W TO 51N138W TO 50N153W...AND FROM 58N TO 63N
BETWEEN 165W AND 172W.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 18.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF HERNAN...NEAR 16N136W 1007 MB. WITHIN
22N131W TO 23N135W TO 22N140W TO 15N140W TO 17N134W TO 22N131W
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST REMNANTS OF HERNAN MOVED W OF AREA. OVER
FORECAST WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N90W TO 09N90W TO 08N88W TO 11N86W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 28N114W TO 29N114W TO 30N116W TO 27N116W TO 26N114W TO
28N114W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 01S106W TO 00N108W TO 01N116W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S93W TO 01S106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N116W TO 00N124W TO 03.4S120W TO
02S111W TO 03.4S94W TO 02N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S92W TO 02N108W TO 02N122W TO 00N130W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S91W TO 01S92W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 123W. WITHIN 13N117W TO
14N123W TO 11N123W TO 10N122W TO 09N119W TO 11N117W TO 13N117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 128W. WITHIN 14N123W TO
14N125W TO 14N128W TO 13N129W TO 11N126W TO 12N122W TO 14N123W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16...
.LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF HERNAN...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N75W TO 10N84W TO 07N105W.
ITCZ FROM 06N108W TO 04N119W TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 77W
AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND
119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 128W...AND FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W
AND 135W. SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND
140W.
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 16 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 17 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 18 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE LALA NEAR 18.7N 156.0W 985 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 16
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT AND
210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 165W AND 148W.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LALA NEAR 19.6N 157.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LALA NEAR 20.2N 160.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 5 M. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 15N TO 25N
BETWEEN 169W AND 155W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LALA NEAR 20.2N 165.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 5 M. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 175W AND 160W.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
SEE THE LATEST BULLETIN ISSUED BY NHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA22
PHFO.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 17N140W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 10N141W.
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 17N143W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 10N143W.
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.
.LOW 05N173W 1008 MB MOVING W 5 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENING TO TROUGH 11N169W 05N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 10N175W 05N180W
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 14N TO 24N E OF 145W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 16N TO 21N E OF 144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 143W
AND 147W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 04N180W 10N165W 10N155W 13N150W. SCATTERED
MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.ITCZ 05N150W 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
ITCZ.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 180W AND
155W...AND N OF 28N W OF 178W.
$$
.FORECASTER PECHACEK. HONOLULU HI.=