TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....195NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.2W
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.7N 119.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 115.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC MON OCT 05 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 07.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 55N164W 980 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 660 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM
NW...660 NM NE...900 NM SE AND 1140 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 991 MB. WITHIN 720 NM NW...720 NM
SE AND 1560 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6
M...EXCEPT TO 3 M IN NW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N148W 1002 MB WITHIN 660 NM NW...720 NM
SE AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED S OF AREA. S OF 32N W
OF 172W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO CENTERED SW OF
AREA. S OF 36N W OF 174W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOLO
MOVED W AND SW OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 52N W OF 150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 5.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 6.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 7.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 114.8W 967 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 05
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 22N112W TO 23N115W TO 20N119W TO 18N116W TO 17N114W TO
19N112W TO 22N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 23N108W TO 26N117W TO 21N121W TO 18N120W
TO 12N113W TO 15N108W TO 23N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.4N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N115W
TO 24N117W TO 22N120W TO 19N121W TO 17N120W TO 19N115W TO 23N115W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
24N112W TO 26N121W TO 21N124W TO 15N120W TO 14N113W TO 17N110W TO
24N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 120.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9.0
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N118W TO 24N122W TO 18N124W TO 17N121W TO
18N118W TO 23N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N115W TO 26N124W TO 20N127W TO 15N125W
TO 14N116W TO 19N114W TO 24N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC MON OCT 5...
.HURRICANE RACHEL...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 22N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N85W TO 14N99W...FROM 14N121W TO BEYOND
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 05N BETWEEN 83W
AND 99W...FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 120W.
$$
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 05 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 06 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 07 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TYPHOON NOLO JUST W OF AREA NEAR 24.8N 179.3E 959 MB AT 0000 UTC
OCT 05 MOVING W OR 300 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105
KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...110 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 175W WITH SEAS TO 8 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 170W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 21N
TO 26N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON NOLO FAR W OF AREA. WINDS OVER FORECAST
AREA EASED TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M OVER FORECAST AREA N
OF 22N W OF 178W. SEAS OVER FORECAST AREA EASED TO 2.5 M OR LESS.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 04N152W 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. SEE TSTMS WITH MONSOON
TROUGH
BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 17N1541W 11N155W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 16N160W TO 10N160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH ABSORBED BY MONSOON TROUGH.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 15N TO 10N BETWEEN
157W AND 153W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS LOWERED TO 2.5
M OR LESS.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 10N140W 06N145W TO LOW AT 04N152W TO 08N165W TO
08N170W TO 11N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 04N BETWEEN 170W
AND 160W.
$$
.FORECASTER SHIGESATO. HONOLULU HI.=