TCMEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 102.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART=
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/REINHART=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 56N152W 978 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 50N TO 59N BETWEEN
149W AND 167W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM
41N TO 63N BETWEEN 146W AND 170W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
5.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 57N145W 990 MB.
FROM 50N TO 56N BETWEEN 141W AND 155W AND FROM 47N TO 52N BETWEEN
128W AND 135W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 55N135W 998 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 50N TO 56N BETWEEN 130W
AND 134W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF A LINE FROM 54N132W TO 50N133W TO 42N145W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 44N178W 1003 MB MOVING E 20 KT. FROM 42N TO 45N BETWEEN
171W AND 178W...AND FROM 38N TO 41N BETWEEN 171W AND 175W WINDS
25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 47N BETWEEN 170W
AND 179W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N164W 1005 MB. FROM 40N TO 46N BETWEEN
158W AND 164W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 38N TO 46N BETWEEN 157W AND 167W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO
5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N146W 1010 MB. FROM 43N TO 47N BETWEEN
143W AND 149W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
41N TO 47N BETWEEN 142W AND 150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N AND NE OF A LINE
FROM 57N156W TO 60N149W TO 59N140W TO 54N134W...AND N OF 57N
BETWEEN 158W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 18.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.2N 102.4W 956 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N99W TO 17N101W TO 17N103W TO
14N104W TO 12N103W TO 12N101W TO 15N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 18N106W TO
13N109W TO 10N107W TO 08N102W TO 10N99W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 15.9N 103.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 11.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 15N106W TO
14N103W TO 14N101W TO 17N101W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 21N109W TO 14N112W TO
10N108W TO 09N102W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 19.0N 105.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N105W TO 21N106W TO 19N107W TO 18N107W TO
18N106W TO 18N104W TO 20N105W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N99W TO 24N111W TO 22N115W TO
12N115W TO 07N111W TO 07N105W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SEAS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 20.0N 108.8W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
16 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 20 NM NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N108W TO 20N108W TO
20N109W TO 19N110W TO 18N109W TO 18N108W TO 19N108W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 IN MIXED SEAS.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON NEAR 20.7N 109.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIMON NEAR 21.8N
111.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 23N110W TO 23N111W TO 23N112W TO 22N112W TO 21N111W TO
21N110W TO 23N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN MIXED SEAS.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIMON NEAR 23.1N
113.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO
14N96W TO 14N94W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14.5N94.5W TO 15N94.5W TO 16N94.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 13N95W TO 14N94W TO 16N94W N
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
16N94W TO 16N96W TO 12N97W TO 11N95W TO 13N93W TO 16N94W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 13N95W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N95W
TO 14N96W TO 12N96W TO 11N95W TO 12N94W TO 15N94W N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 14N91W TO
16N94W TO 16N97W TO 09N100W TO 07N97W TO 12N92W TO 14N91W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 32N114W TO 32N115W TO 30N115W TO 29N113W TO 29N112W TO
32N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N119W TO 22N140W TO 00N140W TO 03.4S92W TO
16N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N96W TO 14N127W TO 21N140W TO 00N140W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S85W TO 11N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02N85W TO 10N104W TO 10N112W TO 02N121W
TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S84W TO 02N85W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N134W TO 30N140W TO 25N140W TO
30N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N127W TO 24N136W TO 30N140W TO
06N139W TO 05N133W TO 09N128W TO 30N127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN W TO NW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16...
.HURRICANE TRUDY...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N
TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 10N97W...FROM 08N102W TO 02N119W.
ITCZ FROM 02N119W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 01N TO 14N E OF 93W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO
11N BETWEEN 97W AND 115W.
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 16 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 17 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW NEAR 05N176W 1007 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 02N164W
TO LOW TO 06N180W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 169W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 05N174W. TROUGH FROM 03N164W TO LOW
TO 07N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST MOVED W OF AREA AND WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM
05N170W 07N180W.
.TROUGH FROM 22N151W 19N152W MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 23N157W 20N158W 17N158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH WEAKENED.
.TROUGH FROM 30N149W 28N152W 27N154W 26N156W MOVING E 10 KTS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N130N149W 29N152W 28N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH WEAKENED AND LIFTED NORTH OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 22N144W 15N152W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH WEAKENED.
.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 12N BETWEEN 150W AND 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 18N BETWEEN 151W
AND 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 12N BETWEEN 145W AND
175W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 25N BETWEEN 151W AND 177W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 12N BETWEEN 141W AND 169W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M N OF 11N.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 01N140W 03N145W 04N151W 02N158W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 120NM OF ITCZ.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 150W AND 161W.
$$
.FORECASTER M BALLARD. HONOLULU HI.=