TCMEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.7W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.9N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 117.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 120.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 06.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 07.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 08.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL W OF AREA. FROM 51N TO 56N W OF 173E
AREA OF S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WELL W OF AREA AND NEW LOW...FORMER
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN...JUST SW OF AREA 50N167E 965 MB. FROM 50N TO
62N W OF 176W AREA OF S TO SE WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
M...HIGHEST NEAR 57N179E. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 43N180W TO
50N173W TO 64N173W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.27 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA 52N170E 962 MB. WITHIN 300
NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER W OF AREA NEAR
60N171E 945 MB. FROM 53N TO 56N BETWEEN 171E AND 174E...AND FROM
61N TO 64N BETWEEN 175W AND 172W...WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO
8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45
KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 M...HIGHEST NEAR 60N179E. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM E OF
A FRONT FROM 50N170W TO 59N168W TO 64N175W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 63N172W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
SE OF FRONT CONTINUING SW FROM 50N170W TO 39N177E...AND FROM 63N
TO 67N BETWEEN 169W AND 161W...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 59N149W 1000 MB DRIFTING NE 05 KT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
A LINE FROM 50N180W TO 50N130W TO 60N137W TO 60N144W TO
50N180W...AND IN THE BERING SEA WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
52N174W TO 55N163W...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.LOW 43N150W 1012 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A
LINE FROM 30N180W TO 30N163W TO 50N130W TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N136W 1014 MB. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
A LINE FROM 35N152W TO 33N143W TO 50N128W TO 54N134W TO 45N152W
TO 35N152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 39N TO 43N E OF 128W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO A LINE FROM 42N133W TO 46N124W
BETWEEN 133W AND 124W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
3.5 M.
.FROM 60N TO 65N BETWEEN 169W AND 165W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 39N155W 1007 MB. FROM 31N TO 47N
BETWEEN 180W AND 152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 33N162W 1005 MB. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
A LINE FROM 30N179W TO 30N152W TO 44N143W TO 47N149W TO 42N167W
TO 30N179W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 49N140W 1015 MB. WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 46N146W TO 51N138W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
3 M.
.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 55N TO 57N W OF 175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER CONNELLY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 6.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 7.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 8.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.5N 120.1W 979 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 06
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS
85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN
23N117W TO 24N120W TO 21N123W TO 19N123W TO 17N118W TO 20N117W
TO 23N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 25N116W TO 27N126W TO 19N126W TO 15N120W TO 16N116W
TO 19N114W TO 25N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 21.2N 122.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM IN SE AND NW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM IN SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N119W TO 25N122W
TO 24N124W TO 20N123W TO 18N121W TO 19N120W TO 23N119W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N118W TO
28N127W TO 23N132W TO 20N130W TO 15N121W TO 17N118W TO 24N118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.3N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NW QUADRANT...150 NM IN NE
AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N122W TO 25N124W TO 24N128W TO 22N128W TO
20N125W TO 21N122W TO 24N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 28N124W TO 28N129W TO 25N132W TO
19N129W TO 18N124W TO 20N121W TO 28N124W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 00N103W TO 01N114W TO 00N121W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S104W TO
00N103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N103W 1004 MB. WITHIN 16N99W TO 18N104W TO 15N106W TO 11N105W
TO 10N102W TO 11N99W TO 16N99W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC TUE OCT 6...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 09N78W TO A
1007 MB LOW NEAR 13N99W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESTARTS NEAR
13N115W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N-17N BETWEEN 97W-105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 103W-110W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECITON IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN
85W-94W.
.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 06 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 07 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 08 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 13N162W 1011 MB AND TROUGH FROM 16N162W TO LOW TO 10N162W.
MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 20N162W TO 10N167W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 15N165W TO 10N168W.
.TROUGH 30N157W TO 26N157W MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 22N147W TO 20N146W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 30N164W TO 26N166W MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N162W TO 23N170W TO 22N178W. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M NW OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N158W TO 20N170W TO 14N180W. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M NW OF FRONT AND N OF 26N BETWEEN
FRONT AND 150W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 11N140W TO 06N160W TO 05N170W TO 07N180W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 172W AND 165W.. AND
FROM MONSOON TROUGH TO 10N W OF 172W.
$$
.FORECASTER SHIGESATO. HONOLULU HI.=