TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 128.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 119.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART=
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC THU JUL 16 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 18.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 58N179W 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE AND
360 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N179W 1000 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N164W 996 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE...600 NM
SE...420 NM SW...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 41N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.LOW 56N160W 1011 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 540 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N150W 1010 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 48N TO 54N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A
LINE FROM 46N163W TO 48N153W TO 52N148W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT JUL 18.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.8N 118.3W 995 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 16
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM
NE
QUADRANT AND 110 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210
NM
NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM
NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...
EXCEPT 240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33
KT.
SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN
111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.1N 121.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
130 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE
AND 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 09N TO 24N BETWEEN 112W AND 126W
WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 19.7N 123.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN
130 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND
80
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...AND
240 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 114W
AND
132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.FROM 09.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 86W AND
92W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC THU JUL 16...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 120W AND 122W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W.
.TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 102W...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
95W AND 102W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 12N110W, THEN
RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF ELIDA FROM 13N122W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 95W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N W OF
137W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
102W
AND 108W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 16 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 17 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 18 2026.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 13N164W 1005 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 09N180W 07N173W TO LOW.
LOW AND TROUGH MOVING NW 5 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N167W 1007 MB. TROUGH 08N180W 10N170W
TO LOW. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF N SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 15N172W 1008 MB. TROUGH 10N180W TO LOW.
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF N SEMICIRCLE.
.LOW 07N153W 1008 MB. MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N145W.
LOW AND TROUGH MOVING S SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 05N153W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 07N145W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENING TO TROUGH. TROUGH 03N157W
08N153W.
.LOW 10N141W 1010 MB. MONSOON TROUGH 08N145W TO LOW. LOW AND
TROUGH MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N142W. TROUGH 07N145W TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 30N165W 25N167W MOVING W 5 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N166W 25N169W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 17N TO 11N BETWEEN 166W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 20N TO 15N BETWEEN 169W
AND 163W...AND FROM 24N TO 14N E OF 149W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 15N BETWEEN 174W
AND 167W...AND FROM 22N TO 12N BETWEEN 158W AND 144W.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 165W AND
162W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 180W AND
169W...AND FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 159W AND 145W...AND FROM 03N
TO 12N E OF 145W.
$$
.FORECASTER PECHACEK. HONOLULU HI.=