TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 153.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 30SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 153.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 152.8W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.5N 154.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 11.4N 156.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.4N 157.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.3N 159.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.3N 161.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.5N 163.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 11.6N 168.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 13.0N 174.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 153.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT NOV 07 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 48N140W 972 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. FROM 44N TO 46N BETWEEN 144W
AND 146W WINDS 55 TO 70 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8.5 M. ALSO FROM 37N TO
51N BETWEEN 132W AND 148W WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 9
M...HIGHEST NEAR 42N144W. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 52N BETWEEN 128W
AND 152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR
39N148W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 54N131W 982 MB.
FROM 47N TO 50N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7
TO 10 M. ALSO FROM 45N TO 54N BETWEEN 124W AND 138W WINDS 25 TO
40
KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 10 M...HIGHEST NEAR 47N131W. ELSEWHERE FROM 44N
TO 56N BETWEEN 124W AND 139W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 9
M...HIGHEST NEAR 45N131W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW
53N144W DESCRIBED BELOW.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 46N173W 992 MB MOVING E 35 KT. FROM 36N TO 45N BETWEEN 166W
AND 180W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N
TO 48N BETWEEN 165W AND 180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
M...HIGHEST NEAR 45N180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N150W 977 MB. FROM 35N TO 48N BETWEEN
143W AND 163W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM
34N TO 48N BETWEEN 141W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO
6.5
M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N146W 968 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 53N143W 955 MB.
FROM 48N TO 59N BETWEEN 131W AND 150W WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 5
TO 10.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 50N142W. ALSO FROM 45N TO 59N BETWEEN
129W AND 151W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 8.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 48N143W. ALSO FROM 41N TO 59N BETWEEN 128W AND 151W WINDS
20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N180W 988 MB. FROM 35N TO 48N W OF 170W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N176W 982 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE
FROM 45N178W TO 45N176W TO 45N174W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO
5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N163W 970 MB. ALSO FROM 38N TO 46N
BETWEEN 175W AND 180W...AND FROM 43N TO 46N BETWEEN 160W AND 165W
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8 M. ALSO FROM 37N TO 46N BETWEEN
149W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
35N TO 47N BETWEEN 150W AND 180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO
6 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 50N W OF
172W...AND FROM 44N TO 47N BETWEEN 146W AND 134W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 52N TO 55N BETWEEN 150W AND
145W...AND FROM 47N TO 50N BETWEEN 160W AND 168W.
.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT NOV 7.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN NOV 8.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 9.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 31N115W TO 30N115W TO 30N114W TO
30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO 14N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N95W TO 15N95W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N87W TO 12N88W TO 12N90W TO 11N89W TO
11N88W TO 11N87W TO 12N87W...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N88W TO 13N89W TO 12N90W TO 10N89W TO
11N88W TO 11N87W TO 13N88W... NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N89W TO 13N90W TO 12N92W TO 11N92W TO
11N90W TO 12N89W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.WITHIN 23N117W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 07N140W TO 13N126W TO
23N117W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY... WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N116W TO 30N140W TO 07N140W TO
13N119W TO 20N112W TO 30N116W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE... WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N120W TO 30N140W TO 11N140W TO
21N123W TO 30N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.WITHIN 01S100W TO 02N110W TO 01N123W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S97W
TO 01S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MERGING NW
AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01N108W TO 02N122W TO
00N128W TO 02S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S101W TO 01N108W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03N108W TO 06N119W TO 01N129W TO
00N120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S104W TO 03N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1200 UTC SAT NOV 7...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 09N91W TO 06N98W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N99W TO 11N117W, THEN 09N122W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 12N
AND E OF 95W, FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 115W, AND FROM
03N TO 13N AND W OF 126W.
.FORECASTER ADAMS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 08 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 153.3W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV 07
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N
BETWEEN 149W AND 160W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE
AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 6 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE
DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION. MODERATE TSTMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
149W TO 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 156.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...20 NM SE QUADRANT...15 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 35 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 19N BETWEEN 150W AND 162W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300
NM
N SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. SEAS 2.5
TO
4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.3N 159.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT OR GREATER
FROM
11N TO 20N BETWEEN 150W AND 165W. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 320 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M
ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FRONT 30N148W 26N160W MOVING ESE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH 30N144W 25N158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N142W 26N150W.
.LOW NEAR 04N158W 1007 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO TROUGH 09N162W 4N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 08N163W 06N166W.
.LOW NEAR 05N152W 1007 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.
.TROUGH 19N157W 16N163W 12N166W MOVING WSW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 26N W OF 160W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 23N W OF 162W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 14N TO 21N W OF 170W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 09N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M N OF 10N BETWEEN 140W AND
180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 162W...AND
N OF 11 N FROM 140W TO 162W.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.ITCZ 07N140W 09N146W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
S OF ITCZ.
.MONSOON TROUGH 03N147W TO SECOND LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO FIRST
LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE TO 06N170W TO 05N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TSTMS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 163W AND 175W...AND FROM EQUATOR
TO MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 146W AND 163W.
$$
.FORECASTER VAUGHAN. HONOLULU HI.=