TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 15SE 30SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.1W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.4N 161.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.3N 163.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.1N 165.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.4N 170.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.0N 173.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 13.4N 180.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 14.7N 175.3E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 159.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON NOV 09 2026
CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 11.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 52N143W 956 MB MOVING N 20 KT AND TURNING NW. WITHIN 240 NM
SW AND 180 NM SE QUADRANTS...AND 480 NM E...360 NM NE AND 300 NM
N QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
44N TO 59N BETWEEN 128W AND 152W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8.5
M...HIGHEST S OF LOW AND E QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N151W 964 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 55N
BETWEEN 140W AND 153W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 48N163W 972 MB MOVING E 25 KT.
WITHIN 720 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS...AND W OF 175W FROM 36N TO 46N
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST W OF 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 48N151W 976 MB.
WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5
M...HIGHEST SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N BETWEEN 135W
AND 173W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 56N140W 972 MB AND
SECOND LOW 53N136W 973 MB. FRONT FRONT FROM FIRST LOW TO SECOND
LOW TO 44N138W. WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF FIRST LOW AND 240 NM
E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 8 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW NEAR 48N150W 978 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S
AND 480 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N140W 972 MB. E OF A LINE FROM 54N134W TO
50N130W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420
NM S ...600 NM SE AND 300 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
4.5 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 58N147W 979 MB.
WITHIN 360 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N178E 974 MB. FROM 39N TO 47N W OF 170W
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 53N W OF
168W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 51N
BETWEEN 155W AND 170W...AND FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN 142W AND
152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 55N W OF 167W.
.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY N OF 63N W OF ALASKA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 62N W OF 169W.
.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 9.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED NOV 11.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 30N120W TO 22N130W TO 30N140W TO 09N140W TO 07N114W TO
17N110W TO 30N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN NW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 24N114W TO 30N116W TO 30N140W TO
09N140W TO 15N122W TO 24N114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N132W TO 26N140W TO 08N140W TO
14N125W TO 11N114W TO 18N111W TO 30N132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW SWELL.
.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 15.5N94.5W TO 16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO
14.5N95.5W TO 13.5N95.5W TO 14N95W TO 15.5N94.5W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
15N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N95W TO 16N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.WITHIN 10N125W TO 08N132W TO 00N134W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S104W
TO 10N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED NW AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 05N111W TO 12N115W TO 04N120W TO
00N127W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S100W TO 05N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 06N113W TO 04N118W TO 07N130W TO
00N127W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S94W TO 06N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
.LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N90W 1010 MB. WITHIN 12N89W TO 12N90W TO
12N91W TO 11N91W TO 10N91W TO 11N89W TO 12N89W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW TO WEAKEN TO TROUGH ALONG 90.5W.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT NW OF AREA. WITHIN 30N138W TO
30N140W TO 29.5N140W TO 30N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN FRESH NW SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC MON NOV 9...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N74.5W TO 09.5N86W TO 05N92W. ITCZ
STRETCHES
FROM 05N92W TO 04.5N108W TO 12N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02S TO 00N E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 121W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09.5N TO 17N
AND BETWEEN 116W AND 132W...FROM 00N TO 10N W OF 135W...AND
S OF 02.5N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W.
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 10 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 11 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.4N 159.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
09 MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 135 NM NE
QUADRANT...15 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED
IN SEAS SECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN
154W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.3N 163.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M
ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PENA NEAR 11.1N 168.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO
5.5 M. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE DESCRIBED IN SEAS SECTION.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 30N141W 28N145W 25N155W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N145W 26N150W 21N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N142W 22N151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N164W 28N172W 27N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N144W 26N153W 25N160W THENCE TROUGH
25N173W
26N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 27N142W 22N149W.
.NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 150W AND 167W.
.24 HR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
160W AND 170W...AND FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 25N W OF
154W...
AND N WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 141W AND 157W.
.SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 162W...AND FROM 11N TO 30N
E OF
162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 156W...
AND N OF 12N E OF 156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 4 TO 6 M NW OF A LINE 30N144W 24N168W.
SEAS 2.5
TO 4.5 M ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 160W...AND FROM 10N TO 21N E OF
160W...
AND FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160W...UNLESS OTHERWISE
DESCRIBED
IN TROPICAL STORM WARNING ABOVE.
.OTHERWISE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 06N140W 07N146W 09N150W...AND FROM 08N160W 07N172W
04N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 260 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH
E OF 150W...AND WITHIN 260 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 167W.
.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 06N BETWEEN 150W AND 165W.
$$
.FORECASTER VAUGHAN. HONOLULU HI.=