TCMEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUN 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 02.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.INLAND LOW 41N123W 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. FROM 39N TO 44N E
OF 128W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO
50N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 41N123W 1008 MB. FROM 38N TO 44N E
OF 127W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO
46N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 39N122W 1008 MB. FROM 34N TO 43N
BETWEEN 123W AND 129W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
LOW JUST W OF THE AREA 61N178W MOVING E 15 KT. BETWEEN 240 NM AND
420 NM NE AND 180 NM AND 540 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N168W 994 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S OF A
LINE S OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FROM 55N157W TO 47N171W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A LINE
FROM 60N179W TO 58N173W...WITHIN 300 NM SE AND S OF A LINE S OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FROM 57N156W TO 54N163W AND WITHIN 420 NM
SE AND S OF THE LINE S OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FROM 54N163W TO
51N177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M...EXCEPT LESS THAN 2.5 M
N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 54N154W 1000 MB.
BETWEEN 60 NM AND 300 NM NE AND E SEMICIRCLES...120 NM AND 540 NM
SE AND 180 NM AND 900 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 36N154W 1019 MB NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SECOND LOW 34N166W 1024 MB MOVING SW AT 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM NW
OF A LINE FROM 39N150W TO 35N156W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE
FROM 34N164W TO 31N172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW DISSIPATED AND SECOND LOW 30N173W
1021 MB. WITHIN 120 N OF A LINE FROM 32N167W TO 32N175W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOWS DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 54N172E 1006 MB MOVING NE 10 KT AND
SECOND LOW 41N164E 1016 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 300 NM N AND
NE OF A LINE FROM 47N180W TO 52N165W AND WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A
FRONT FROM 51N177E TO THE SECOND LOW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST BOTH LOWS DISSIPATED. N OF 47N W OF 172E AREA
OF SW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR 53N165E 1000 MB. WITHIN
660 NM E...840 NM SE AND 240 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS OF NEW LOW
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 55N
BETWEEN 167W AND 163E AND FROM 55N TO 64N BETWEEN 164W AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW OF A LINE FROM
56N155W TO 48N166W TO 42N179E TO 38N166E AND N OF 47N W OF 171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM N OF A LINE FROM
43N161W TO 40N169E...WITHIN 180 NM E OF A LINE FROM 58N179W TO
52N178W AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 52N178W TO 44N164E.
.FORECASTER FUTTERMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON JUN 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUL 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED JUL 02.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 16.2N 103.6W 996 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN
30 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.0N 105.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.9N 106.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120
NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M. FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 115W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 19.5N 109.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
150 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 102W AND 113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. FROM
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.S OF 02S BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC MON JUN 30...
.T.S. FLOSSIE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SE AND
60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 11N95W, THEN
CONTINUES W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 12N114W TO 07N136W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 87W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUN 30 2025.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 01 2025.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 02 2025.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROUGH 30N156W 24N160W MOVING W SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N157W 25N161W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N158W 26N164W.
.TROUGH 30N169W 29N172W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N173W 27N174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N175W 27N176W.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
.ITCZ 07N140W 06N155W 06N175E 04N166E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ.
.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS IN AREA BOUNDED BY 26N171E 16N169E
22N162E 26N171E.
$$
.FORECASTER WROE. HONOLULU HI.=