TCMEP1
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC MON AUG 31 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.0W
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 135.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=
TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON AUG 31 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 144.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 144.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 143.7W
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.2N 147.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.0N 153.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.4N 155.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 158.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 110NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 160.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 144.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS
HSFEPI
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC MON AUG 31 2026
CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 02.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 58N138W 1007 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM NW OF A LINE
FROM 56N151W TO 58N147W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1000 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE
FROM 59N154W TO 57N147W...INCLUDING THE SHELIKOF STRAIT...WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N143W 998 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A LINE
FROM 59N154W TO 57N147W...INCLUDING THE SHELIKOF STRAIT...WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N144W 993 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE AND N OF A
LINE FROM 59N153W TO 57N150W TO 57N143W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
3.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 55N134W 995 MB.
WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 840 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.IN THE BERING SEA N OF 61N W OF ALASKA WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW W OF THE AREA 47N171E 997 MB AND
INTENSIFYING. FROM 48N TO 52N W OF 171W AND IN THE BERING SEA N
OF 52N BETWEEN 170W AND 177E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF THE AREA 53N171E 984 MB. FROM 34N TO
52N W OF 175W AND IN THE BERING SEA FROM 52N TO 56N W OF 175W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 37N TO 44N E OF 128W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.LOW 57N162W 1022 MB MOVING SE 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 180 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 300 NM N OF A LINE FROM
48N149W TO 50N168W AREA OF W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 155W AND 133W AREA OF W
TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR
53N140W.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 58N W OF
162W AND N OF 65N W OF ALASKA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 59N W OF 159W AND WITHIN
90 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 53N151W TO 49N147W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47BN TO 59N W OF 165W.
.FORECASTER FUTTERMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 1.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 2.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.1N 123.8W 954 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 31
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...300 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 11.0 M. WITHIN 21N119W TO 22N124W TO 21N126W TO 17N128W
TO 14N122W TO 19N118W TO 21N119W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO
7.0 M. WITHIN 24N113W TO 30N119W TO 25N131W TO 17N132W TO
12N123W TO 18N113W TO 24N113W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.4N 126.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER 300 N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M. WITHIN
20N124W TO 23N126W TO 23N129W TO 19N131W TO 15N129W TO 14N124W TO
20N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 22N119W TO
29N125W TO 29N131W TO 20N138W TO 13N133W TO 11N122W TO 22N119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.4N 130.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER 270 N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9 M. WITHIN
22N127W TO 25N132W TO 20N135W TO 17N134W TO 16N131W TO 17N128W TO
22N127W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 21N122W TO
27N128W TO 24N140W TO 15N140W TO 12N132W TO 14N124W TO 21N122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.WITHIN 15N104W TO 16N106W TO 15N108W TO 13N108W TO 12N107W TO
12N104W TO 15N104W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN W SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N104W TO 18N109W TO 16N111W TO
13N108W TO 10N110W TO 10N104W TO 16N104W S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 18N104W TO 20N110W TO 18N113W TO
11N112W TO 12N105W TO 18N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES... S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S119W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO
03.4S117W TO 03S117W TO 01S119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0350 UTC MON AUG 31...
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 08N90W TO
11N106W TO 12N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG N OF
03N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 31 2026.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01 2026.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 02 2026.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.2N 143.3W 999 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
31 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM
E SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.2N 146.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM WITH SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL NEAR 13.4N 148.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 34 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM WITH SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LOWELL NEAR 13.7N 150.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 34
KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M 210 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 330 NM N
SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.TROUGH 30N176W 29N177W 26N178W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.24 HOUR NEW FORECAST TROUGH 27N143W 25N144W 22N145W 19N144W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.SEAS 2.5 M OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
.MONSOON TROUGH 11N147W 07N152W 10N158W 12N162W 12N166W 08N173W
10N180W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH
BETWEEN
158W AND 170W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 07N TO 02N E OF 155W.
$$
.FORECASTER M BALLARD. HONOLULU HI.=