TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 37.6W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 38.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC THU AUG 27 2026
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 28.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 29.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 57N41W 1002 MB NEARLY STATIONARY THEN MOVING SE 20 KT AFTER
18 HOURS. FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE...AND 180
NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N40W 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST W OF LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA. FROM 46N TO 54N E OF 41W AREA
OF NW WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 59N56W 1005 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N AND
NW...240 NM NE AND 180 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 63N59W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.LOW JUST E OF AREA 51N34W 1006 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO
50N E OF 42W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.
.36 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 43N69W 1013 MB. FROM 39N TO 43N
BETWEEN 62W AND 65W AREA OF S TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N60W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE
FROM 44N58W TO 42N60W TO 40N65W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N62W 1006 MB. FROM 60N TO 63N W OF 60W
AREA OF E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 41N TO 45N
BETWEEN 65W AND 69W...WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM
42N48W TO 47N43W TO 52N50W TO 45N58W TO 43N52W TO 42N48W...FROM
49N TO 54N E OF 39W...AND FROM 60N TO 63N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 45N W OF 60W...FROM 43N
TO 53N BETWEEN 45W AND 59W...AND W OF A LINE FROM 55N58W TO
64N62W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 46N BETWEEN 54W AND
61W...FROM 43N TO 52N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W...W OF A LINE FROM
52N50W TO 61N60W...AND N OF 65N W OF 57W.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 27.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 28.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 29.
.WARNINGS.
...ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 13.6N 38.7W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG
27 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 21 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 50 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 17N36W TO 18N38W TO 17N40W TO 15N40W TO 13N38W TO 14N36W
TO 17N36W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 20N35W TO 21N39W TO 19N41W TO 16N41W TO 13N37W TO 13N35W
TO 20N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 14.4N 46.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 75
MN NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 45 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N44W TO
18N42W TO 19N45W TO 18N48W TO 15N47W TO 14N43W TO 17N44W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 19N38W TO
21N44W TO 20N48W TO 16N49W TO 12N42W TO 16N38W TO 19N38W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 15.9N 55.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
20N53W TO 20N55W TO 19N56W TO 16N55W TO 17N54W TO 17N51W TO
20N53W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 19N46W TO 22N49W TO 22N53W TO 20N57W TO 17N57W TO 12N51W
TO 19N46W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...
.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N72W TO 17N76W TO 14N82W TO 11N81W TO 10N78W
TO 11N70W TO 16N72W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N74W TO 12N75W TO 12N76W TO 11N75W TO
11N74W TO 12N74W NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N69W TO 16N76W TO 15N81W TO 10N80W TO 10N71W
TO 13N69W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N71W TO 15N79W TO 13N82W TO 10N81W TO
10N76W TO 11N70W TO 14N71W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N74W TO 13N77W TO 13N78W TO 11N78W TO
10N76W TO 12N72W TO 14N74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.