TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 120SE 210SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 86.5W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.7N 86.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.2N 86.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.6N 82.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 86.5W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 12.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 51N45W 999 MB MOVING NE 20 KT
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND SECOND CENTER NEAR 59N50W 983 MB
MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF SECOND CENTER...AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF A LINE FROM 60N42W TO 59N44W TO 60N47W WINDS 30
TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 52N E OF 62W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 58N37W 969
MB AND SECOND CENTER NEAR 56N48W 986 MB. WITHIN 60 NM W OF A LINE
FROM 59N41W TO 61N41W TO 63N39W...AND WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
OF SECOND CENTER WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE N OF
48N BETWEEN 39W AND 59W...WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF FIRST
CENTER...AND FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 39W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 47N E OF 63W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 61N37W 952
MB. WITHIN 60 NM W OF A LINE FROM 62N39W TO 63N39W TO 65N35W
WINDS 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM S AND
180 NM W QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 180 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 66N54W
TO 63N51W TO 55N38W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE
AREA NE OF A LINE FROM 40N35W TO 42N42W TO 46N53W TO 59N62W TO
67N62W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 46N35W 1004 MB MOVING NE 30
KT. WITHIN 300 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 46N35W TO 41N43W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM S OF A LINE FROM
47N35W TO 43N46W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 52 AND 66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 300 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 45N52W TO
50N64W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 46N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 47N E OF 62W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 40N35W TO 42N42W TO 46N53W E
OF 53W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 31N TO 34N W OF 73W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW NEAR 35N75W 1016 MB. FROM 34N TO 37N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N76W 1006 MB. FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 64W
AND 75W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW 34N52W 1016 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND NEAR 51N66W 1002 MB. FROM 44N TO 50N
BETWEEN 56W AND 67W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 51N
BETWEEN 42W AND 51W...FROM 53N TO 56N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W...AND
FROM 58N TO 63N BETWEEN 37W AND 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM W OF A LINE FROM 64N38W
TO 60N41W...AND FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 57N E OF 44W...FROM 48N TO 52N
BETWEEN 52W AND 59W...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 38N75W TO 40N70W.
.FORECASTER POCHE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 12.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC WITHIN 18N35W TO 16N41W TO 12N41W TO 11N37W TO 13N35W TO
18N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 23N35W TO 20N37W TO 18N39W TO 16N38W TO
15N35W TO 23N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NE
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 19N35W TO 18.5N35.5W TO 17.5N36W TO
16.5N36W TO 16.5N35W TO 19N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN NE TO E SWELL.
.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N50W TO 25N65W. WITHIN
31N48W TO 31N68W TO 27N68W TO 26N62W TO 31N48W NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W TO 26N55W...STATIONARY
FRONT TO 25N65W. WITHIN 31N39W TO 31N51W TO 29N57W TO 27N57W TO
27N51W TO 29N42W TO 31N39W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 3.5
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N39W TO 30N62W TO 27N57W TO 27N51W TO
28N44W TO 31N39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NE
SWELL.
.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN 12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 20N71W TO 21N73W TO
20N76W TO 19N76W TO 19N75W TO 20N71W...INCLUDING BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 13N70W TO 14N76W TO 11N76W TO 11N73W TO 11N72W
TO 12N69W TO 13N70W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.GULF OF AMERICA POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WELL NORTH OF AREA.
WITHIN
30N84W TO 31N88W TO 30N87W TO 29N85W TO 28N84W TO 29N83W TO
30N84W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN
28N82W TO 31N87W TO 27N96W TO 24N95W TO 23N92W TO 26N84W TO
28N82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
$$