TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 42.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 22.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 22.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 22.3W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.4N 22.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 23.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 23.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 24.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 24.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 24.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 24.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 25.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 22.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 27.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 35N71W 1000 MB DRIFTING N 05 KT.
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 36N73W TO 39N70W WINDS 40
TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF A LINE
FROM 31N78W TO 35N71W TO 40N61W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 7
M...HIGHEST NEAR 36N73W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A
LINE FROM 31N81W TO 31N69W TO 37N55W TO 42N55W TO 44N71W TO
31N81W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N72W 990 MB. WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 38N74W TO 41N70W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
W OF A FRONT FROM 42N66W TO 38N73W TO LOW CENTER...WINDS 30 TO 45
KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE
FROM 31N81W TO 31N66W TO 39N59W TO 44N59W TO 44N71W TO 31N81W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N72W 989 MB. WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE
AND N QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N80W TO 31N64W TO 39N56W
TO 44N56W TO 45N70W TO 31N80W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 57N46W 994 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 57N55W TO 54N48W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 62N62W TO
57N55W TO 54N44W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 58N30W 986 MB. WITHIN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 44N40W TO 42N35W TO 66N35W TO 64N40W TO
44N40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.03 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 59N59W
TO 57N54W AREA OF NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 62N52W
TO 59N48W AREA OF NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 61N51W
TO 56N43W AREA OF NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 44N40W TO 64N40W
TO 64N57W TO 51N53W TO 44N40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 41N55W 1010 MB. FROM 41N TO 42 BETWEEN
53W AND 50W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N53W 1010 MB. FROM 41N TO 42N BETWEEN 53W
AND 51W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO
44N BETWEEN 59W AND 48W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N43W 1006 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A FRONT
FROM LOW CENTER TO 39N37W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 44N BETWEEN 52W AND 35W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.39 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 57N54W 1000 MB. WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 58N59W TO 57N56W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 3
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N45W 997 MB. FROM 53N TO 55N BETWEEN 53W
AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 51N45W TO
54N40W...WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 43N35W TO 65N35W TO 57N48W TO
57N60W TO 49N50W TO 43N35W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 41W AREA OF E WINDS TO 25 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY CENTERED S OF AREA. SEAS TO
3.5 M. ADDITIONAL DETAILS PROVIDED IN TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN
PART II.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 43W WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 44W WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 36N55W TO 33N44W TO 35N35W
TO 42N35W TO 42N55W TO 36N55W AREA OF E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 39N BETWEEN 41W AND 35W WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FROM 41N TO 56N BETWEEN 45W AND 35W...AND FROM 56N TO 66N
BETWEEN 42W AND 35W...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
M...HIGHEST NEAR 63N35W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.NW OF A LINE FROM 61N65W TO 65N57W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY BETWEEN A LINE FROM 64N41W TO 66N36W AND
THE E COAST OF GREENLAND.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM
41N TO 43N BETWEEN 71W AND 59W.
.FORECASTER CONNELLY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI SEP 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 27.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.8N 42.8W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 25
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE...70
NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N41W TO 31N43W
TO 31N46W TO 30N46W TO 29N44W TO 29N42W TO 31N41W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.7N 44.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 15 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N43W TO
30N45W TO 31N47W TO 30N47W TO 29N45W TO 29N44W TO 31N43W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FAY NEAR 29.3N 45.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N44W TO 31N45W TO 31N46W
TO 30N47W TO 29N46W TO 29N45W TO 30N44W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC WITHIN 31N69W TO 31N81W TO 28N81W TO 28N73W TO 31N69W NW
TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N66W TO 30N81W TO 27N80W TO 26N76W
TO 29N68W TO 31N66W...INCLUDING ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N72W TO 31N68W TO 31N70W TO 31N75W
TO 27N76W TO 27N73W TO 29N72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN N SWELL.
.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N69W TO 14N71W TO 13N73W TO
11N74W TO 11N71W TO 11N68W TO 12N69W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
$$