TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 34.1W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 34.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
CCODE/2:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 24.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 46N49W 1008 MB RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NE 30 KT AND SECOND CENTER 42N49W 1008
MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 40N TO 48N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 56N BETWEEN 35W
AND 54W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COMBINED LOW 51N39W 989
MB. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW 53N35W 980 MB. WITHIN
240 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
M. ALSO WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50
KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 55N E OF 51W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA NEAR
61N23W 958 MB. WITHIN 420 NM W QUADRANT AND FROM 47N TO 55N E OF
55W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR 51N35W.
ELSEWHERE E OF A LINE FROM 37N41W TO 55N52W TO 66N58W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 62N39W 996 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
FROM 55N TO 61N E OF 49W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5
M...HIGHEST NEAR 59N42W. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 62N E OF 56W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 62N39W 1000
MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE...300 NM SE...AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING ABOVE.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 38N65W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY
THEN DRIFTING N AND DISSIPATING. WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW NEAR 33N71W 1013 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM
AND 480 NM NW AND BETWEEN 360 NM AND 600 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 35N69W 1002 MB.
FROM 35N TO 42N W OF 56W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NE AND 360 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 36N67W 1008
MB. WITHIN 360 NM N AND NW OF A FRONT FROM 34N71W TO 39N61W TO
37N54W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO
44N W OF 49W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.30 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW NEAR 60N55W 1000 MB. FROM 60 TO 62N W
OF 58W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 31.1N 34.6W 1010 MB AT 1500 UTC
SEP 22 MOVING SW OR 230 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 37N E OF 46W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY NEAR 29.9N 37.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. S OF 35N E OF 41W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY NEAR 29.4N 41.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM N OF 65N E OF 36W
AND FROM 42N TO 50N BETWEEN 41W AND 52W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 62N E OF GREENLAND.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 65N E OF 38W AND FROM 60N TO
63N W OF 59W.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 24.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 31.1N 34.6W 1010 MB AT 1500 UTC
SEP 22 MOVING SW OR 230 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN WITHIN 31N35W TO
31N43W TO 29N38W TO 29N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAY NEAR 30.5N
35.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAY NEAR 29.9N
37.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 31N36W
TO 31N41W TO 30N40W TO 29N39W TO 29N37W TO 30N36W TO 31N36W WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAY NEAR 29.4N
41.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 30N40W
TO 31N41W TO 31N43W TO 28N44W TO 28N42W TO 28N40W TO 30N40W WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N79W TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO
29N81W TO 29N79W TO 31N79W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.