TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 90.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 90.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 90.6W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.9N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.1N 87.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 87.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.3N 87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.6N 88.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 90.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC THU OCT 08 2026
CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOE+AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 61N37W 985 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 57N41W TO 59N42W TO 63N38W TO
64N35W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8 M. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM N
AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS AND FROM 51N TO 56N E OF 46W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW SEMICIRCLE
AND SE QUADRANT AND E OF A LINE FROM 56N52W TO 48N40W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW E OF AREA NEAR 64N15W 984 MB.
FROM 57N TO 61N E OF 43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
ALSO FROM 45N TO 57N E OF 43W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 35N58W 1012 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW TO
31N70W. FROM 33N TO 37N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AND WITHIN 180 NM NW
OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N55W 1012 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NW AND N
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N48W 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
420 NM E...360 NM S AND 300 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA NEAR 48N28W 997 MB. WITHIN 300
NM SE OF A LINE FROM 42N35W TO 40N43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE S OF 49N W OF 58W AREA OF S
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N57W 995 MB. FROM 47N TO 56N BETWEEN 43W
AND 56W AND WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
3.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 53N49W.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N52W 988 MB. FROM 56N TO 62N BETWEEN 54W
AND 58W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N49W 988 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE
FROM 58N47W TO 58N44W TO 62N40W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5
M. ALSO N OF 55N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 53N W OF 49W...N OF A
LINE FROM 57N49W TO 58N42W TO 63N38W...AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF A
LINE FROM 61N38W TO 48N44W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.36 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 51N62W 1001 MB. WITHIN 720 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N58W 996 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT
AND FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
TO 4 M...HIGHEST NEAR 42N58W. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 68W AND A LINE
FROM 50N60W TO 41N47W TO 37N57W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3
M...HIGHEST S OF 45N.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.N OF 62N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 58N TO 64N BETWEEN 53W AND 69W AREA OF N
TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE
WITH LOW 58N52W.
.LOW 39N46W 1018 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N38W 1016 MB. FROM 38N TO 47N E OF 39W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 35N W OF 71W AREA OF NE TO E WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 51N TO 56N W OF 53W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 60N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY N OF 65N WITHIN 60 NM E
OF GREENLAND.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...GULF OF AMERICA HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR 23.7N 90.2W 975 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 08
MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 24N88W TO 26N90W TO 26N93W TO 24N95W TO 20N93W TO 22N88W
TO 24N88W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF CAMPECHE...WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR 27.1N 87.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N83W TO 29N94W TO 26N96W TO 22N93W TO 21N90W
TO 24N84W TO 30N83W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS INLAND NEAR 32.3N 87.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
OVER FORECAST WATERS SEAS LESS THAN 4 M. WITHIN 30N85W TO 30N86W
TO 29N87W TO 28N86W TO 28N85W TO 30N85W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 29N83W
TO 30N89W TO 28N97W TO 24N95W TO 24N87W TO 29N83W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 30N70W AND
STATIONARY TO 29N81W. WITHIN 31N80W TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO
29N81W TO 29N80W TO 30N79W TO 31N80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WARM FRONT ALONG 31N W OF 72W. WITHIN 31N77W
TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO 30N79W TO 31N77W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M W OF 79W.
.GULF OF AMERICA STATIONARY FRONT 28N83W TO 28N85W TO 27.5N88W.
WITHIN 29N84W TO 30N87W TO 30N89W TO 29N93W TO 27N92W TO 28N87W
TO 29N84W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS TO MERGE WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.