TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 87.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 87.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 87.1W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.4N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.6N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 38.1N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 87.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOE+AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 11.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 58N45W 992 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N AND NW
OF A LINE FROM 59N48W TO 59N44W TO 61N42W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW 58N40W 988 MB. WITHIN
90 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 58N47W TO 58N43W TO 63N39W WINDS 30 TO
45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHNIN 240 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS...FROM 62N TO 65N E OF GREENLAND...WITHIN 300 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 62N37W TO 52N39W TO 47N44W ..AND FROM 39N TO 47N E
OF 49W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 970 MB. WITHIN 90 NM W OF A LINE
FROM 58N42W TO 64N38W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N36W 959 MB. FROM 56N TO 63N BETWEEN 39W
AND 43W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ALSO WITHIN 480 NM
N...660 NM W AND SW AND 420 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 38IN35W TO 31N45W TO
46N60W AND ALSO N OF 53N W OF 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 41N46W 1008 MB MOVING NE 25
KT. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 31N WITHIN 420 NM S OF A LINE FROM 48N35W
TO 42N48W TO 35N57W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED E OF AREA. WITHIN 360 NM S OF A
LINE FROM 44N35W TO 38N45W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M...HIGHEST NEAR 42N35W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED WELL E OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 57N53W 990 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. FROM 52N TO 56N BETWEEN 44W
AND 49W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480
NM SE AND E...360 NM N AND 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M...HIGHEST S OF 56N E OF 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N49W 986 MB. BETWEEN 61W AND A LINE FROM
66N54W TO 55N47W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 58N52W. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 67N54W TO 59N50W TO
51N38W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M...HIGHEST S OF 61N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW
59N36W IN STORM WARNING ABOVE.
...GALE WARNING...
.INLAND LOW 54N66W 1000 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 960 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N57W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT
AND FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M...HIGHEST NEAR 43N56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N52W 1005 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 480 NM
S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M...HIGHEST NEAR 43N54W. ELSEWHERE FROM 37N TO 47N BETWEEN 49W
AND 67W AND WITHIN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE S OF 50N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDIITONS ABSORBED BY LOW 59N36W IN
STORM WARNING ABOVE.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 31N TO 33N W OF 74W AREA OF E TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 36N W OF 71W AREA OF E TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 36N W OF 73W AREA OF E WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 37N75W 1010 MB. FROM 35N TO 38N
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W AREA OF SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 40N W OF 68W AND BETWEEN 79W AND A LINE
FROM 34N74W TO 31N77W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 58N TO 65N E OF 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M IN MIXED
SWELL...HIGHEST NEAR 61N35W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FROM 62N TO 65N W OF 61W.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 51N
BETWEEN 46W AND 54W...AND FROM 57N TO 59N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 60 NM E OF GREENLAND FROM 61N
TO 64N.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 9.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 11.
.WARNINGS.
...GULF OF AMERICA HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR 29.2N 87.0W 959 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 09
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...210
NM SE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N84W TO 30N89W TO 29N93W TO 27N92W TO 23N86W
TO 25N84W TO 30N84W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 27N84W TO 26N91W TO 30N89W TO 28N95W TO 22N94W TO
23N84W TO 27N84W...INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS INLAND WELL N OF AREA
NEAR 33.4N 87.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS...WITHIN 29N84W TO 28.5N85W TO 28N86W TO 26N87W
TO 27N85W TO 28N83W TO 29N84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 2.5 M
IN RESIDUAL MIXED SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N572W TO 29N61W TO 30N65W THEN
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30.5N70W TO 31N77W AND TO 30N81W. WITHIN
31N78W TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO 29N80W TO 30N78W TO 31N78W E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WARM FRONT NEAR 31N W OF 69W. WITHIN 31N78W TO
31N81W TO 30N81W TO 29N80W TO 30N78W TO 31N78W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN NE TO E SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WARM FRONT TO LIFT WELL N OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN 30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 21N72W TO 21N73W TO
20N74W TO 20N73W TO 20N71W TO 21N72W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.CARIBBEAN 06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N69W TO 14N71W TO 12N73W TO
12N71W TO 11N71W TO 12N69W TO 13N69W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N70W TO 13N71W TO 13N74W TO 12N73W
TO 11N70W TO 12N70W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...NE TO
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.