TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 32.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 33.1N 32.2W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 21
MOVING SSW OR 210 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 37N E OF 36W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 31.3N 34.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS AND 50 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE S OF 38N E OF 44W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAY NEAR 29.9N
38.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. S OF 34N E OF
41W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...STORM WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 45N54W 1010 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 40N51W 1012 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 49N46W 1004 MB
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND SECOND CENTER 44N46W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 360 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS OF FIRST LOW AND WITHIN
240 NM SE QUADRANT OF SECOND LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 51N BETWEEN 39W AND 57W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 51N41W 995
MB AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 300 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA NEAR
56N31W 970 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 50 TO 60 KT.
SEAS 4.5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 M. ALSO FROM 44N TO 58N
E OF 50W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER JUST E OF AREA 64N31W 980 MB
MOVING NE 10 KT. E OF A LINE FROM 66N61W TO 59N55W TO 50N38W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 34N E OF 58W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA AND NEW
COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 62N38W 997 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N
OF A LINE FROM 63N55W TO 58N47W TO 56N35W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 52N E OF 58W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DESCRIBED BY STORM WARNING ABOVE.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 39N73W TO 40N68W AREA OF NE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 38N67W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N OF A
LINE FROM 36N74W TO 38N68W TO 39N62W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR 36N67W
1010 MB. FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 43N W OF 48W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM NW OF
A LINE FROM 61N37W TO 64N35W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 64N E OF 37W...AND FROM 45N TO
51N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 61N TO 64N W OF 57W AND N OF 63
E OF GREENLAND.
.FORECASTER HYDE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 23.
.WARNINGS.
.NONE
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 31.3N 34.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
31N35W TO 31N41W TO 29N40W TO 29N38W TO 28N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAY NEAR 29.9N
38.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 31N37W
TO 31N40W TO 30N41W TO 29N39W TO 29N38W TO 30N37W TO 31N37W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.