TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 88.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 70SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 88.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 88.4W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 86.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 38.2N 83.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 88.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0430 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOE+AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH, AND
ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO PRESERVE
CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 11.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 37N55N 1010 MB MOVING NE 40
KT. FROM 34N TO 38N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
38N52W TO 32N64W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N37W 1004 MB. FROM 42N TO 47N E OF 39W
WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 44N35W TO 36N51W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED WELL E OF AREA AND CONDITIONS MERGED
WITH COMPLEX LOW DESCRIBED BELOW.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW E OF AREA NEAR 62N29W 986 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. FROM 56N TO
64N E OF 37W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE AREA E
OF A LINE FROM 47N35W TO 47N43W TO 56N56W TO 60N44W TO 65N41W TO
66N35W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR 58N35W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA. N OF 48N E OF 37W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
...GALE WARNING...
.FROM 44N TO 56N BETWEEN 51W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW NEAR 56N57W 994 MB. FROM 49N TO 55N
BETWEEN 46W AND 53W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N51W 987 MB. WITHIN 420 NM E...120 NM
N...AND 300 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5
M...HIGHEST E OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 62N BETWEEN 37W
AND 59W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 57N39W 984
MB AND SECOND CENTER NEAR 59N50W 987 MB. WITHIN 90 NM W OF A LINE
FROM 59N42W TO 63N40W...AND WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF SECOND
CENTER WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO
66N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF A LINE FROM
58N41W TO 63N39W TO 64N36W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 37N E OF 50W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.FROM 59N TO 63N W OF 52W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH LOW 59N51W DESCRIBED
ABOVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 33N W OF 76W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH COMPLEX LOW DESCRIBED
ABOVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 42N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 36N W OF 72W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 36N TO 38N
BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 49N E OF 39W...FROM 47N
TO 52N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W...AND FROM 59N TO 62N BETWEEN 44W AND
57W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 57N TO 61N BETWEEN 49W AND
53W...AND FROM 56N TO 65N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.
.FORECASTER POCHE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI OCT 9.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT OCT 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 11.
.WARNINGS.
...GULF OF AMERICA HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR 25.4N 88.4W 969 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 09
MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 27N87W TO 29N84W TO 29N92W TO 26N94W TO 23N90W TO 22N86W
TO 27N87W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 27N87W TO 29N84W TO 29N92W TO 24N95W TO 22N91W TO 23N86W
TO 27N87W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ISAIAS NEAR 29.9N 87.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180
NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 29N84W TO 30N85W TO 29N87W TO 29N92W TO
27N92W TO 27N84W TO 29N84W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 30N84W TO 28N95W TO 24N95W TO 24N88W TO
26N83W TO 30N84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS INLAND NEAR 32.2N 87.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS NEAR 34.1N 87.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
30N86W TO 30N89W TO 30N90W TO 29N88W TO 29N86W TO 30N86W WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC WITHIN 18N35W TO 18N37W TO 17N38W TO 14N38W TO 13N36W TO
13N35W TO 18N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 19N35W TO 18N40W TO 14N41W TO 12N40W TO
11N35W TO 19N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NE
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 23N35W TO 22N38W TO 20N40W TO 17N39W TO
14N37W TO 14N35W TO 23N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M IN NE SWELL.
.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 29N81W.
WITHIN
31N79W TO 31N81W TO 29N81W TO 29N79W TO 30N78W TO 31N79W E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 29N81W. WITHIN
31N79W TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO 30N79W TO 31N79W E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WARM FRONT NORTH OF AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.CARIBBEAN 24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N70W TO 14N74W TO 11N75W TO
12N72W TO 11N71W TO 12N69W TO 13N70W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FORECASTER DELGADO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
$$