TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 50.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 50.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 49.8W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 50.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOE+AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 4 METERS OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH,
AND ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO
PRESERVE CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW JUST E OF AREA 66N32W 980 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ALSO N OF 58N E OF
42W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE
FROM 51N35W TO 59N47W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NE OF AREA. N OF 64N E OF 40W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.W OF A LINE FROM 50N59W TO 47N48W TO 37N67W WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 43N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W AREA OF S
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 44N63W 1006 MB. FROM 38N TO 42N
BETWEEN 63W AND 67W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT, SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 50N51W TO 37N55W TO 34N75W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N4W 998 MB. FROM 43N TO 54N BETWEEN 43W
AND 60W...AND W OF A LINE FROM 36N65W TO48N51W TO 42N54W...AND W
OF A LINE FROM 36N71W TO 31N79W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 60N35W TO 40N43W TO 31N70W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 39N37W 1010 MB MOVING NE 15
KT. WITHIN 360 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N138W 1003 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N36W 1001 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ALSO WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M...HIGHEST SW OF LOW.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 42O NM OF LOW EXCEPT 300 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N34W 1004 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF LOW
EXCEPT 240 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N52W 1000 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N39W 998 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 51N
TO 61N E OF 49W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.N OF 60N W OF 53W AREA OF S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 65N58W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF GREENLAND N OF 63N WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 67N63W 1000 MB. FROM 59N TO 64N W OF 53W
AREA OF W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 48N TO 54N
BETWEEN 48W AND 55W...AND N OF 64N W OF GREENLAND.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN 48W AND
52W,,,AND N OF 63N BETWEEN GREENLAND AND 55W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG E OF A LINE FROM 58N40W TO 55N50W TO
49N55W.
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 8.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 9.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 10.
.WARNINGS.
...ATLC HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 13.3N 50.7W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
08 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 20 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...180
NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N48W TO 17N50W TO 16N53W TO
13N53W TO 13N51W TO 11N48W TO 14N48W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5
TO 5.5 M IN E TO SE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N42W TO
18N47W TO 18N52W TO 13N53W TO 10N49W TO 14N40W TO 17N42W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN E TO SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 15.7N 56.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT... AND 90
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N53W TO
20N55W TO 19N58W TO 17N59W TO 14N55W TO 15N53W TO 17N53W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 5.5 M IN E TO SE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 18N47W TO 21N53W TO 19N57W TO 17N53W TO 17N59W TO 09N54W
TO 18N47W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN E TO SE
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JERRY NEAR 17.3N 59.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. PEAK SEAS TO 8.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JERRY NEAR 18.9N 61.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM
SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N57W TO 22N60W TO 21N62W TO
19N62W TO 17N59W TO 19N57W TO 21N57W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC
EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M IN
SE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N54W TO 26N56W TO 25N62W TO
20N65W TO 13N59W TO 19N53W TO 24N54W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC
EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M
IN SE TO S SWELL.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC WITHIN 27N63W TO 30N75W TO 29N78W TO 26N66W TO 26N63W TO
27N63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 17N35W TO 16N39W TO 16N42W TO
13N43W TO 10N37W TO 13N35W TO 17N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 M IN MIXED N AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 21N35W TO 16N39W TO 16N47W TO 11N47W TO
08N43W TO 13N35W TO 21N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN
MIXED N AND E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N50W TO 13N53W TO 11N53W TO 10N52W TO
10N49W TO 12N47W TO 14N50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN
MIXED N AND E SWELL.
.ATLC 36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N79W TO 31N81.5W TO 30.5N81W TO
31N80.5W TO 31N79.5W TO 31N79W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5
M IN NE AND E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N80.5W TO 31N81.5W TO 30.5N81W TO
31N81W TO 31N80.5W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 M IN NE TO E
SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N75W TO 31N81W TO 28N80W TO 29N77W TO
31N75W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.GULF OF AMERICA 06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 19N95W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 22N95W TO 22N96W TO 20N96W TO 19N96W TO 21N94W TO
22N95W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF VERACRUZ...WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN NE TO E SWELL.
.15 HOUR FORECAST LOW TO MOVE W AND INLAND. CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.GULF OF AMERICA 42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N84W TO 29N85W TO
29N84W TO 28N83W TO 29N83W TO 30N84W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N83W TO 30N84W TO 30N87W TO 29N87W TO
28N85W TO 27N83W TO 29N83W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.