TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 39.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0430 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 26.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.SEE TAFB PORTION BELOW FOR EXPANDED INFORMATION ON FAY.
.TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.8N 40.0W 1010 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 24
MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. FROM 31N
TO 33N BETWEEN 42W AND 36W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 4
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.9N 42.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 40W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 29.7N 44.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. FROM 31N TO 32N
BETWEEN 46W AND 43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 34N71W 1009 MB MOVING N 05 KT AND
SECOND CENTER 36N66W 1010 MB MOVING N 05 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF EACH CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N81W TO 44N73W
TO 38N45W TO 35N67W TO 31N81W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 36N70W 1004 MB AND
SECOND CENTER 38N64W. WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF EACH CENTER
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED
BY A LINE FROM 31N81W TO 44N74W TO 40N35W TO 35N35W TO MAIN
CENTER TO 31N81W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NW
OF CENTERS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 39N68W 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N80W TO 46N73W TO 45N51W TO
31N65W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
...GALE WARNING...
.E OF A LINE FROM 45N50W TO 57N50W TO 67N43W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR 52N35W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E OF A LINE FROM 45N50W TO 55N50W TO 67N36W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 59N52W 1001 MB MOVING SE 20 KT AND
SECOND CENTER 62N58W 1002 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. W OF A LINE FROM
50N50W TO 62N50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 60N51W 997 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S OF
A LINE FROM 66N63W TO LOW CENTER TO 54N45W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA NEAR 57N32W 988 MB. WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 43N35W TO 43N44W TO 64N58W TO 60N35W
TO 43N35W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.DENSE FOG VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 59N TO 53N W OF
60W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER BYRD. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 26.
.WARNINGS.
...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.8N 40.0W 1010 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 24
MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 31N38W TO 31N41W TO 29N41W TO 29N39W TO 30N38W TO 31N38W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.9N 42.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS TO 4 M WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N40W TO 31N43W TO 30N43W TO 30N41W TO 31N40W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 29.7N 44.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 31N42W TO
31N46W TO 30N46W TO 29N44W TO 30N42W TO 31N42W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N79.5W TO 31N81.5W TO 30.5N81.5W
TO 30N81W TO 30.5N80W TO 31N79.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N78W TO 31N81W TO 30N82W TO 29N81W TO
29N80W TO 31N78W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
WITHIN 31N69W TO 31N78W TO 28N80W TO 27N76W TO 29N74W
TO 28N72W TO 31N69W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN N
TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N67W TO 31N70W TO 30N70W TO 29N69W TO
30N68W TO 31N67W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
WITHIN 29N68W TO 31N70W TO 31N81W TO 26N80W TO 26N73W TO
29N68W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 13N71W TO 13N72W TO 12N74W TO 11N72W TO 11N70W
TO 13N71W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N69W TO 13N72W TO 13N74W TO 12N74W TO
11N73W TO 12N70W TO 13N69W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.FORECASTER ERA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
$$