TCMAT3
REMNANTS OF LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 44.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 43.4W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
HSFAT1
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024
CCODE/2:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).
FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.PHP
(ALL LOWERCASE).
FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE
THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM).
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ACCEPTING PUBLIC COMMENTS UNTIL
OCTOBER 16 2024 ON A PROPOSAL TO REPLACE FEET WITH METERS WHEN
DESCRIBING SEAS IN A VARIETY OF NATIONAL MARINE CENTER TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS FOR THE HIGH SEAS AREAS ONLY.
TO LEARN MORE PLEASE VISIT (WEB ADDRESS LOWERCASE)
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/PROPOSED-METERS.PHP
FROM OCTOBER 15 TO APRIL 1, DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE FREQUENCY AND VOLUME OF WEATHER HAZARDS, ALONG
WITH CUSTOMER FEEDBACK, HIGH SEAS FORECASTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND HIGHER, AND SEAS OF 12 FEET OR
GREATER, ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY, DENSE FOG, VOLCANIC ASH,
AND ANYTHING TROPICAL (INCLUDING A DEPRESSION). LESSER
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR WARNING CONDITIONS AND TO
PRESERVE CONTINUITY WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 56N49W 960 MB MOVING W 25 KT THEN TURNING MORE SW AFTER 06
HOURS. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65
KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT AND 180
NM N AND NE OF FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO 57N46W TO 52N36W AND
WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
ALSO FROM 40N TO 61N E OF 51W...FROM 56N TO 63N BETWEEN 50W AND
58W...WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE...AND 300 NM E AND SE OF FRONT
FROM 40N37W TO 33N48W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 25
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 59N55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND NEAR 52N60W 984 MB. FROM 37N
TO 50N BETWEEN 50W AND 69W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS MERGED WITH LOW
55N41W DESCRIBED BELOW.
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 57N40W 978 MB. FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N44W 986 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW
OF A LINE FROM 56N51W TO 58N44W TO 61N41W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS
13 TO 27 FT. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 54N57W TO
59N39W AND N OF 58N E OF 42W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 22
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 56N55W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW
55N41W DESCRIBED BELOW.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 31.3N 45.9W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
12 MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 21 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 0 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 105 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE NEAR 36.5N
36.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 38N E
OF 42W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 420 NM W
QUADRANT WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE NEAR 37.7N
25.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM SE QUADRANT...300 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
...STORM WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N64W 989 MB. FROM 37N TO 47N W OF 60W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N45W 977 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND SE OF
FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO 45N46W TO 42N50W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS
12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 52N AND A LINE FROM 38N50W TO
48N35W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 55N41W 973
MB. WITHIN 360 NM N AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT.
SEAS 18 TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM N QUADRANT E OF
GREENLAND...660 NM S...AND 360 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. ALSO N OF 40 N E OF 58W...EXCEPT WITHIN 480 NM
E QUADRANT AND THE WATERS W OF GREENLAND...WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. OTHERWISE WITHIN 480 NM E QUADRANT WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW INLAND 54N58W 972 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 38N TO 53N W OF
51W AND WITHIN 660 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 22
FT...HIGHEST WITHIN NW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N49W 978 MB. FROM 37N TO 51N BETWEEN 50W
AND 68W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW
55N41W DESCRIBED ABOVE.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 33N53W 1005 MB MOVING E 15 KT AND
SECOND CENTER S OF AREA. S OF 35N BETWEEN 51W AND 66W WINDS 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FIRST CENTER DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM
NEAR 33N46W 1011 MB AND SECOND CENTER 31N55W 1006 MB. S OF 34N
BETWEEN 46W AND 59W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N47W 1015 MB WITH FIRST CENTER
DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
...GALE WARNING...
.N OF 63N W OF GREENLAND WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 63N52W 991 MB. N OF 60N W OF GREENLAND
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N49W 999 MB. N OF 60N W OF GREENLAND
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 42N72W 1003 MB. W
OF A LINE FROM 32N72W TO 42N60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 60N TO 62N W OF
59W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 60N TO 62N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.FORECASTER JOSEPH. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 14.
.WARNINGS.
...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 31.3N 45.9W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
12 MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 21 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 0 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 105 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N44W
TO 31N47W TO 30N49W TO 26N48W TO 27N46W TO 29N44W TO 31N44W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
31N44W TO 28N49W TO 31N54W TO 29N54W TO 25N49W TO 25N45W TO
31N44W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL LESLIE NEAR 36.5N
36.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...AND 300 NM SE AND SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 31N37W TO 31N44W TO 29N42W TO 29N39W
TO 31N37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW TO W SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL LESLIE NEAR 37.7N
25.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT...300 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 29N60.5W 1003 MB. WITHIN 31N59W TO 31N62W TO
30N62W TO 30N61W TO 31N59W NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18
FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N57W TO 29N62W TO 31N65W TO 28N68W TO 24N62W
TO 26N59W TO 31N57W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 30N54W TO 28N68W TO 31N67W TO 31N81W TO
21N70W TO 25N59W TO 30N54W...INCLUDING ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 29.5N58.5W 1004 MB. WITHIN
31N55W TO 31N64W TO 27N65W TO 25N59W TO 28N56W TO 31N55W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N66W TO 31N64W TO
31N78W TO 28N80W TO 21N70W TO 24N59W TO 27N66W...INCLUDING
ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN N TO
NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 31N55W 1006 MB. WITHIN 31N57W TO
31N59W TO 30N59W TO 29N59W TO 30N57W TO 31N57W N WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N51W TO 31N60W TO 26N75W
TO 22N72W TO 21N66W TO 23N55W TO 31N51W...INCLUDING ATLANTIC
EXPOSURES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES N OF AREA. WITHIN 30N47W TO 31N52W TO
30N54W TO 28N53W TO 28N50W TO 28N47W TO 30N47W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN W SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC 30 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...E
OF AREA NEAR 17N33W 1012 MB. WITHIN 21N35W TO 20N36W TO 19N37W
TO 18N36W TO 17N35W TO 21N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN E
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...E OF AREA NEAR 16N34.5W 1010 MB. WITHIN 20N35W TO
20N37W TO 19N39W TO 18N39W TO 17N37W TO 19N35W TO 20N35W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.CARIBBEAN 30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N71W TO 15N73W TO 13N76W TO
12N76W TO 11N74W TO 13N71W TO 14N71W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.FORECASTER ERA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
$$