METAREA 7 bulletinset


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTIO24 FMEE 111205

SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VII

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2026

AT 1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 11/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 1008 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 44.5 E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM OVER THE NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2026/02/12 AT 00 UTC:

19.5 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM

34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/02/12 AT 12 UTC:

20.2 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM

34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM

48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:

NIL.=


HIGH SEAS FORECAST
FQZA31 FAPR 111330

WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.

ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE

11TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC.

FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2

BELOW.

NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.

======================

COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE

MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.

AREA 1:

=======

FORECAST VALID FROM 112200 TO 122200 UTC:

WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.

NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.

INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.

WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20252026

1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 44.5 E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 155

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 175

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85

48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 20 NW: 30

72H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 185

34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

96H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 425 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155

48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 535 NW: 315

34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155

48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 30

GALE FORCE WARNINGS:

====================

1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east drifting to the

south-west towards the end of the period. (Refer to

additional information of OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10

GEZANI).

2. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 in the north-east until mid-period.

SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z

=====================

High 1032 hPa 38s05w, High 1026 hPa 36s52e

Low 966 hPa 59s27e

1. Cold front: 34s14e 40s20e 45s24e 50s30e 53s35e 54s40e 57s45e 60s42e

60s35e into 59s27e.

AREA FORECAST:

==============

ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):

WIND : SE to E 10 to 15.

VIS : Good.

ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):

WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east.

VIS : Good.

ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):

WIND : NE 05 to 15 in the south-west until mid-period, otherwise E to SE

05 to 15 reaching 20 in the south-east at first.

VIS : Good.

TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):

WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east towards the end of the period, with S to

SE swell.

TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):

WIND : SE to E 10 to 20 in the extreme north-east, but anticyclonic 05

to 15 in the south-east, otherwise N to NW 10 to 20. It will be

cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-west.

VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the

south-west.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west, with NW to W swell.

CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):

WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the west becoming

SW 10 to 20 in the south from mid-period.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding in the west towards mid-period,

with SW swell.

CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):

WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise SW to S 20 to 30 in the

west becoming S to SE 10 to 20 from mid-period spreading to the

south-east by the end of the period.

VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the

central parts spreading to the south-east from mid-period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, with SW swell.

DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places in the extreme west

and extreme central north at first, becoming S to SE 10 to 20

in the extreme south-west towards mid-period.

VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-

west at times.

SEA STATE: 3.0m over the eastern half at first, with S to SW swell.

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:

WIND : N to NW 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15, but

cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east drifting to the south-west

towards the end of the period. (Refer to additional information

of OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI).

VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the

north, but poor to very poor in the central parts drifting

towards the south-west towards the end of the period.

SEA STATE: 4.0 to 5.0m in the central east drifting to the south-west

towards the end of the period while reaching 6.0 to 7.5m, with NE

swell.

MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND : E to NE 05 to 15, but SE 05 to 15 in the north.

VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers at times.

MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):

WIND : NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the north-east until mid-period, but

SW 20 to 30 in the west spreading to the east by mid-period. It

will become NW 20 to 30 in the south-west towards the end of the

period.

VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers becoming good in

the west by mid-period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west towards

mid-period, with NW swell, but SW in the west towards the end of

the period.

AREA 2:

=======

MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)

26/02/11 AT 0500UTC

AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).

PART 1: WARNING

GALE EXPECTED OVER CRO

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/11 AT 0000UTC

- COLD FRONT CF 43S/55E, 45S/60E, 49S/64E.

- WARM FRONT WG 51S/34E, 56S/30E, 58S/24E.

- HIGH 1025 OVER WAM AND AMS

PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/11 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/12 AT 0600UTC

WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.

WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/5.

SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH BECOMING MODERATE FROM WEST AT END. SW SWELL

2 TO 4 M ABATING AT END.

VIS : GOOD.

AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.

WIND : CLOCKWISE 3/5.

SEA : BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM SOUTHWESTERN BY. SW SWELL 3 TO

5 M.

VIS : GOOD.

CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)

SCATTERED RAIN (CF) OVER EASTERN AT FIRST, RAIN (WG) OVER FAR WESTERN AT END.

WIND : W 4/6 INCREASING NW 7/8 AT END.

SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. SW SWELL 3 TO 5 M.

VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.

KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)

FRONTAL RAIN (CF).

WIND : WESTERLY 4/6.

SEA : VERY ROUGH BECOMING ROUGH AT END. SW SWELL 4 TO 6 M DECREASING 2 TO 4

M AT END.

VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.=