SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 045/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 42.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 210
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
33.0 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
35.8 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 100 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
17TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 16:00 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 172200 TO 182200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
INFORMATION ABOUT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI:
================================================
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 51/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 42.5 E
THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 81 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 620 SW: 520 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0
24H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 185
36H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 150
48H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 175
60H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 43.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 595 SW: 415 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 280
72H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 655 SW: 480 NW: 595
34 KT NE: 445 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 325
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 185
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. CAPE EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east (Also see formation about SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI Above.
2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the south-central parts at first. (Also see
Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1027 hPa 39s07W, 1026 hPa 39s55e
Low 1009 34s24e
Low 986 hPa 30.3 S / 42.5 E (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI).
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain in the north-west and south-east.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SW to S 15 to 25 in the south-west spreading to the central parts
towards the end of the period, but SE to E 10 to in the north-west
otherwise variable 05 to 10.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
north-west until mid-period, becoming moderate to poor in showers and
thundershowers in the south-central from mid-period spreading to the
south-east towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west from mid-period, with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the north-east, but variable 05 to 10 in the south-
west and in the north-west towards the end of the period, otherwise S
to SE 15 to 25.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-east
until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m subsiding in the west from mid-period, with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SE to E 20 to 30 in the south-west, but NE to N 15 to 25 in the
north-west reaching 30 in the extreme east, otherwise cyclonic 35 to
45 (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI
Above).
VIS : Good, becoming moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
east and in places in the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west and north-east, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in
places in the north-east but 7.5 to 8.5 in places in the central
east spreading to the south from mid-period, with SE swell in the
west, otherwise NE to E.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the south-central parts at first, but NE to N 15
to 25 in the east, otherwise variable 05 to
10 (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI
Above).
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places in
the east.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m except in the east, reaching 5.5 to 7.5m in the south-
central at first, with E to SE swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : Variable 05 to 10.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in the central parts at first,
otherwise good.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south at first, with S to SW swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
north.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, but SW 10
to 20 in the south-west spreading to the south-east from mid-period.
It will become SE to E 05 to 15 in the north-west from mid-period.
VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and rain in the south-west
drifting to the south-east from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, with W to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/17 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
- Gale over KER.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/17 AT 1200UTC
- Severe tropical storm 10 (GEZANI) 986 near 30.3S/42.5E, steadily moving south-south-eastwards, expected moderate tropical storm near 35.8S/41.3E the 18 at 12 UTC.
- High 1027 near 39S/58E, steadily moving eastward.
- Fresh to strong Westerly airflow over far southern areas.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/17 at 1800UTC to 26/02/18 at 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Scattered showers over northern. Showers and squalls over far western at end.
WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 at times 5, but North-Easterly 4/5 at times 6 with gusts
over far western.
SEA : moderate to rough.
VIS : moderate in precipitation, but very poor over far western at end.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Scattered showers over northern.
WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over southern at times 5, but Easterly 3/4 over
northern.
SEA : moderate.
VIS : moderate in precipitation.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
Scattered showers.
WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over northern at times 5, but Westerly 5/6 over southern
at times 7 with gusts.
SEA : moderate or rough, locally very rough over far southern by SW swell 3 to
5m.
VIS : moderate in precipitation.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
Scattered showers.
WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over far northern at times 5. Elsewhere, Westerly 5/6 at
times 7, but 8 at first over far south-eastern. Gusts.
SEA : rough to very rough, but moderate over far northern and temporarily high
over far south-eastern. SW swell, soon increasing 3 to 4m.
VIS : moderate in precipitation.