PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 12/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 39.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 190 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
20.9 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
12TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 121000 TO 131000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 41.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
24H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
36H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
72H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
120H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 120
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50 to 60 at times over the
central parts drifting to the south-west by mid-
period (Refer to additional information of the
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI)
2. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 in the north-east and extreme south-west at
first.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1030 hPa 37s00w
Low 990 hPa 19s41e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI)
1. Cold front: 35s20w 37s18w 45s24e 40s16w 42s15w into 41s17w.
2. Cold front: 36s34e 43s41e 51s 47e 55s 50e 60s45e into 58s40e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 10 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the southern half, with S to SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-west spreading to the south-east
by the end of the period, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
south-west drifting to the south-east from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west spreading to the south-east by mid-period,
with SW to W swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the north-east, but SW 10 to 20 in the south
reaching 25 in the south-east from mid-period, otherwise
anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme south-east
towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding in the extreme west by mid-period, with S
to SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, but S to SE 10 to 20 in the extreme
north-east, otherwise SW to S 10 to 20 becoming anticyclonic 05
to 15 from mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
extreme north-west and the south-east, becoming poor to very poor
in showers and thundershowers in the central north from mid-
period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the west until mid-period, otherwise N to NE
10 to 20 reaching 25 in places over the central northern parts.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
south-west from mid-period.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 in the south, but cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50
to 60 at times over the central parts drifting to the south-west
by mid-period (Refer to additional information of the SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI), otherwise N to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places over the
north, but poor to very poor over the central parts drifting
to the south-west by mid-period, otherwise good.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 5.5m in the central east reaching 6.0 to 8.0m at times
drifting to the south-west by mid-period, with NE swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers over the northern
and central parts, otherwise good.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NW 25 to 35 in the north-east at first, otherwise SW 15 to 25
reaching 30 in places, but NW 20 to 30 in the south-west
reaching 35 in the extreme south-west at first spreading to
the north and east by the end of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west
until mid-period, otherwise good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west, with NW
swell in the north-west, otherwise SW to W.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA
ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/12 AT 1500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40%
STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN KER AT FIRST.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/12 AT 1200UTC
- COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN CRO AT FIRST AND EXTENDING TO KER DURING
THE PERIOD.
- HIGH 1026 HPA NEAR 38S/67E, OVER WAM AND MOVING EASTWARD.
- SECOND HIGH 1017 HPA BEHIND THE FRONT BY WESTERN CRO.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/12 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/13
AT 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FEW SHOWERS.
WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 LOCALLY 5 OVER SOUTHERN.
SEA : BECOMING MODERATE.
VISIBILITY : GOOD.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FEW SHOWERS.
WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 INCREASING E 5 OVER NORTHERN.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. SW SWELL 2 TO 3 M ABATING.
VISIBILITY: GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS.
WIND : NW 5/6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACKING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 BEHIND AND
WESTERLY 5/6 OVER SOUTHERN.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH OVER NORTHERN, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN. WESTERLY SWELL 2 TO 3 M.
VISIBILITY: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN..
WIND : WESTERLY 4 TO 6 OVER NORTHERN AND 6 TO 7 LOCALLY 8 WITH GUSTS
OVER SOUTHERN AT FIRST, DECREASING 4 TO 5 LOCALLY 6 EVERYWHERE LATER.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHERN. SW
SWELL 2 TO 4 M.
VISIBILITY : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.