PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 36.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
130 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
26.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 230 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
25.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 35.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
140 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
26.1 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
14TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 142200 TO 152200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI:
================================================
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 36.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 38.5 E, WIND MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 255 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 50 SW: 115 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 25 NW: 20
24H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.7 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 50 SW: 85 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
30H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.5 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35
42H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.1 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35
54H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.3 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35
66H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.0 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 380 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. TRADES: S to SE 35 in the south-east at first.
2. CAPE WEST: S to SE 35 in the east.
3. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the north-west until towards the end
of the period, where and when it will become S to SE 35
to 40. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10
GEZANI above).
4. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the extreme south-west,
drifting to the south towards the end of the
period. (Also see Information about Tropical
Cyclone 10 GEZANI above).
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1021 hPa 28s20w, High 1027 hPa 38s10e
Low 990 hPa 53s48e
Low 960 hPa 25.7s36.6e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI).
1. Cold Front: 31s34e 35s39e 40s43e 45s45e into 53s48e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north-
east at times.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but variable 05 in the extreme south.
VIS : Good.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 35 in the south-east at first,
but W to NW 05 to 15 in the extreme east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and south-east, with S to SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east until mid-period,
otherwise NW 10 to 20. It will become SW 10 to 20 in the
south-west towards mid-period, spreading over the central
parts towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west,
spreading to the south-east and central parts towards the end
of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west, spreading to the south from
mid-period, with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts, otherwise S to
SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the east, but NW 15 to 25 in
the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west at
times.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and north-east, with S to SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SW 15 to 25 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 15
to 25 reaching 30 in the north, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in
the west. It will become E to NE 15 to 25 in the north-west
from mid-period.
VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers over
the eastern parts.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 4.0 to 6.0m in the central parts, drifting to
the north-eastern parts towards the end of the period, with SW
swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the north-west until towards the end of
the period, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20 but S to SE 20 to 30 in
the west, reaching 35 to 40 in the north-west towards the end
of the period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10
GEZANI above).
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers but poor to
very poor in heavy thundershowers over the north-western
parts.
SEA STATE: 6.0 to 8.0m in the north-west, but 4.0 to 5.0m in the west,
with S to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : N to NE 15 to 25, but cyclonic 60 to 80 in the extreme south-
west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period.
(Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI
above).
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor
in heavy thundershowers in the south-west, drifting to the
south towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern parts, reaching 6.0 to 8.0m in the
south-west, drifting to the south towards the end of the
period, with S to SW swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : SW 20 to 30, but W to NW 20 to 30 in the west, spreading to
the east towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the north-east at
first, but in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading to
the south-east towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the north-west at first,
with SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
2026/02/14 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
NIL
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/02/14 AT 0000UTC
- LOW 992 NEAR 46S/38E MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD QUICKLY. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED OVER WESTERN CRO AND SOUTH-WESTERN WAM DURING THE NIGHT.
- HIGH 1030 OVER AMS, STATIONARY.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/02/14 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/02/15 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AT END.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 SETTING-UP NORTHERLY 5 TO 6 BY SOUTH-WESTERN,
INCREASING 7 DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING SOUTH-WEST 4
TO 5 AT END.
SEA : MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH BY SOUTH-WESTERN. WEST SWELL 3 M OVER FAR
SOUTH-WESTERN AT END.
VIS : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 SETTING-UP EAST 5 OVER FAR NORTHERN.
SEA : MODERATE.
VIS : GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AT END.
WIND: NORTHERLY 4 TO 6 INCREASING NORTH-WEST 6 TO 7 SOON AHEAD THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS, BACKING SOUTH-WEST 5 TO 6 BY SOUTH-WESTERN CRO AT END.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. NW SWELL 4 TO 5 M
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIND: NORTH-WEST 3 TO 5 INCREASING 6 TO 7 BY SOUTH-WESTERN LATER.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH BY SOUTH-WESTERN AT END.
WEST SWELL 2 TO 3 M DECREASING.
VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.