METAREA 7 bulletinset


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTIO24 FMEE 010037 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

SECURITE

NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2026

AT 0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 01/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (FYTIA) 1001 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 48.5 E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP

TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE

SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 12 UTC:

20.3 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM

34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/02/02 AT 00 UTC:

21.6 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM

34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM

48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:

NIL=


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTIO24 FMEE 010031

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2026

AT 1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 31/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 998 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 47.4 E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90

NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP

TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 06 UTC:

19.8 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 105 NM

34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 18 UTC:

21.1 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 115 NM

34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:

NIL=


HIGH SEAS FORECAST
FQZA31 FAPR 311630

WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.

ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE

31ST OF JANUARY 2026 AT 16:30 UTC.

FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2

BELOW.

NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.

======================

COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE

MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.

AREA 1:

=======

FORECAST VALID FROM 312200 TO 012200 UTC:

WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.

NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.

INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.

WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20252026

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.6 E

(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 165

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 75

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 140

24H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 185

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

96H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95

120H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 155

34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

GALE FORCE WARNINGS:

====================

1. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): Cyclonic 35 to 40 over the

central and south of Madagascar from the second half of the period.

Also see information about the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).

SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z

=====================

High 1021 hPa 37s10e

High 1031 hPa 45s59e

Low 998 hPa 17s46e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA)

1. Cold Front: 33s20w 36s12w 39s06w into 43s48w

AREA FORECAST:

==============

ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):

WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 2.5m in the west, with S to SW swell.

ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):

WIND :Variable 05 to 10.

VIS :Good.

ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):

WIND : SE 10 to 15 in the north otherwise variable 05 to 10.

VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south.

SEA STATE: 2.5m, with S to SW swell.

TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):

WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise S

to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 2.5m in the south-west spreading to the north and east from

the second half of the period, with a SW swell.

TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):

WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the north and north-east at first, otherwise SW to

S 15 to 20 in the south-west, spreading to the south and east

towards mid period. It will become anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the

west by the of the period.

VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the

north-east drifting to the extreme north-east by the end of the

period.

SEA STATE: 2.5 with SW swell.

CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):

WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the south-west, and SE 10 to 20 in the north-east,

otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.

VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers in the extreme south-

west drifting to the west by the end of the period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, becoming 2.5m from the west in the second

half of period with SW swell.

CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):

WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 in the east and south-west, otherwise variable

05 to 10kt becoming NE 05 to 15 in the west by end of the period.

VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers over the central.

SEA STATE: 3.5 in the extreme south-west at first spreading to the west

towards mid-period, with SE swell.

DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 but variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and

north-east.

VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the

south-western parts in the first half of the period.

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:

WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the south and central, but NW

20 to 25 in the north, reaching 30 north-east of Madagascar

at first.

VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in

the north.

SEA STATE: 2.5m in the north-east with NWly swell and south-east in

south with a SEy swell at first.

MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the

north-west spreading south-wards towards mid-period

reaching 35 to 40 in the second half of the period.

VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the

west spreading to the central from the second half of the period.

SEA STATE: 3.5m over the central, spreading to the south from the

second half of the period, with NELy swell in the north and

SEly swell in the south.

MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):

WIND : NE 10 to 15 in the north-east, but anticyclonic 10 to 15 in the

extreme south-west, drifting to the west by end of period.

otherwise N to NW 15 to 25.

VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south-west,

drifting to the west and southern parts in the second half of the

period.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, spreading to the west towards mid-period

reaching 3.5 to 4.0 in the extreme south-west with SW to W swell.

AREA 2:

=======

MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)

26/01/31 AT 1600UTC

AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).

PART 1: WARNING

Nil.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/31 AT 1200UTC

Thundery low 1007 near 28S/54E, very slowly moving Southward over

WAM area. Associated squally line.

High 1031 hPa near 45S/60E moving slowly Eastward.

PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/31 at 1800UTC to 26/02/01

at 1800UTC

WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)

Showers and thunder squalls with severe gusts near deepening low.

WIND: Becoming Clockwise 5 to 6 by Northern area but E 5 to 6

locally 7 over Southern and Eastern area.

SEA: Moderate to rough. NE swell 2 to 3 meters over North-Eastern

area at end.

VIS: Poor or very poor under precipitation.

AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)

Frontal rain or showers over western later, elsewhere scattered

showers.

WIND: NE 3 to 4 over Eastern area, and 4 to 5 over Western

area but 6 over far Western at end.

SEA: Moderate.

VIS: Poor under precipitation.

CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)

Scattered over Northern later

WIND: Anticlockwise 3 to 4 but E 5 to 6 over Northern area and

NW over 5 to 6 over far Southern area.

SEA: Moderate to rough locally very rough in far South-Eastern

area at beginning. W to SW 2 to 3 meters.

VIS: Poor under precipitation.

KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)

Scattered showers.

WIND: Becoming anticlockwise 4 to 5 locally 6 over North-Western

area and 6 to 7 sur South-Eastern area.

SEA: Moderate over far Northern area, but rough to very rough

in South. SW swell 2 to 4 meters.

VIS: Good.