SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
19TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 17:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 192200 TO 202200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. DURBAN EAST: SW to S 35 in the north-western and central parts for the
first half of the period.
2. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: SW to S 35 in the south-west from mid-period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1028 hPa 36s05w, High 1020 hPa 38s75e
Low 964 hPa 51s51e.
1. Cold Front: 32s42e 38s52e 45s61e into 51s51e.
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20.
VIS : Good but moderate in rain in places for the first half of the
period.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the east.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, with SE Swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 in places in the south for the
first half of the period.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, with SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but SE 10 to 20 in the north.
VIS : Good.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the north-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the central and
western parts for the first half of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east and north-east, with S to SW swell but
SE swell in the north.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the south-east reaching 30 at first,
otherwise W to SW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in places, becoming S
to SE 10 to 20 in the west and north-east from the second half
of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north-
east as well as the south, spreading to the eastern parts by
the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding from the west from the second half of
the period, with S to SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SW to S 20 to 30 in the west, but 35 in the north-western and
central parts for the first half of the period, otherwise N to
NW 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the south-western, central, southern and north-western parts.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west reaching 4.5m in the north-west and
central parts, with S to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : NW to N 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east, but
SW to S 20 to 30 in the south-west reaching 35 from mid-
period moderating towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the southern and north-eastern parts.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-east, with S to SW swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north
but south-east.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to SW 20 to 30 moderating to 10 to 20 in the west
from the second half of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers in the central and northern parts,
spreading to the east towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 4.5 to 5.5m in the east for the first half of the period,
otherwise to 3.0 to 3.5m, with W to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK
(AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/01/19 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE FORCE 8 OVER AMS AND KER.
- STRONG GALE FORCE 9, LOCALLY STORM FORCE 10 EXPECTED OVER CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/19 AT 0000UTC
- HIGH 1026 HPA NEAR 40S/71E MOVING EASTWARD.
- LOW 989 HPA NEAR 50S/35E ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT (CG) AXIS AT 48S/47E, 36S/44E, 28S/363E AND A WARM FRONT (WG) AXIS AT 48S/47E, 49S/55E, 41S/60E, THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/19 AT 0600UTC TO 26/01/20 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
RAIN, SQUALLS, AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CG.
WIND:NORTHERLY 4/5 OVER NORTHERN AREA BUT 5/6 LOCALLY 7 AT FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN AREA BECOMING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/3 BY SOUTH-WESTERN AREA
LATER.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIND:ANTICLOCKWISE 3/5 THEN NW 5/6 OVER SOUTHERN SOON.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH OVER THE EASTERN AREA.
SOUTHERLY SWELL 3 TO 4M.
VIS: GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
RAIN, SQUALLS, AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER WG, THEN UNDER CG THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WIND: NW 7/8 AHEAD OF CG AND BACKING WESTERLY 8/9 LOCALLY 10 OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREA. STRONG GUSTS. WESTERLY DECREASING 3/4 OVER WESTERN
AREA AT END.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SOON. ARRIVAL OF
WESTERLY SWELL 4/6 M.
VIS: VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CG.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 OVER NORTH-EASTERN AT FIRST BUT ELSEWHERE NW
6/7 LOCALLY 8 AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AND BACKING W 8/9
LOCALLY 10 OVER SOUTHERN WITH STRONG GUSTS LATER.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH OVER SOUTHERN AREA
SOON. W SWELL 3/5 M ARRIVING FROM THE W AT END.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.=