PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 31/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 44.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
19.0 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
30TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 16:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 302200 TO 312200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS
THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 42.9 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY-TWO DECIMALS NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30
24H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0
36H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
60H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35
72H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MARION FORTIES EAST: N to NW 35 in the south-west, drifting to the
central south towards mid-period.
2. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 40 north-west of Madagascar during
the first half of the period.(Also see information
about the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1020 hPa 30s13w
High 1024 hPa 44s44e
Low 1012 hPa 40s19w, Low 964 hPa 57s12e
Low 996 hPa 15s43e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA)
1. Cold Front: 35s08e 40s16e 45s19e 50s20e into 57s12e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 15, but SW to S 10 to 15 in the west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
east at times.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the southern parts, otherwise SE 10 to
15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, with S to SW swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise S
to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places in the south-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0m, with a SW swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 but NW 15 to 25 in the south-west,
spreading to the south-east towards mid period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m but 4.0 to 4.5m in the east and south-east at first,
with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the south-west, and SE 10 to 20 in the north-east,
otherwise, anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m except in the north-east, reaching 4.0 to 4.5m in the
south and spreading to the south-east from mid-period, with SW
swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NE in the north and north-west, otherwise, E to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Moderate in showers thundershowers in places at times.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the eastern parts, with SE swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE 05 to 15 in the south-west, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the east and
south-western parts.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the south and central, but cyclonic 20 to 30
in the north, reaching 35 to 40 north-west of Madagascar during
the first half of the period. (Also see information about the
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).
VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in
the north.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the north-east, subsiding to 3.0 to 3.5m by mid-
period, with NW to W swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S 05 to 10, but NW 10 to 15 in the extreme north-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
north and western parts.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : E to NE 10 to 15 in the north-est, otherwise N to NW 15 to 25,
reaching 30 to 35 in the south-west, drifting to the central
south towards mid-period and to the south-east during the second
half of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south-west,
spreading to the central parts and south-east by mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, with NW to W swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/01/30 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
- Nil.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/30 AT 1200UTC
- Thundery low 1007 near 28S/56E, very slowly moving southwards, expected
later over far north of WAM. Associated squally line.
- Cold front axis 36S/43E, 37S/52E, 40S/61E, 45S/68E, 51S/77E, between a
ridge 1020/1025 over AMS and an high 1027 over west of CRO, all moving
slowly eastwards.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/30 at 1800UTC to 26/01/31 at
1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Showers and thundersqualls with severe gusts.
WIND:
- In northeast: Northeast 5 or 6, becoming Clockwise later from north.
Gusts.
- In Southwest: Southeast 5 or 6.
SEA : moderate or rough.
VIS : poor or very poor in precipitation.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Rain or showers.
WIND: Northerly 3 to 5, very soon veering Southeast 5 or 6 in far southwest.
SEA : moderate.
VIS : poor or very poor in precipitation.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
Frontal rain or showers in northeast at first.
WIND: Anticlockwise 3 to 5, locally 6 in far north and in far south, and
also Southwest 6 or 7 only at first in far southeast with gusts.
SEA : moderate or rough, but rough or very rough in far southeast.
VIS : poor or very poor in precipitation.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
Frontal rain or showers.
WIND: Northwest 5 or 6, locally 7 in south, veering West or Southwest behind
the front, becoming Anticlockwise 3 to 5 in west at end. Gusts.
SEA : moderate in north, but rough or very rough in south.
VIS : poor or very poor in precipitation.