SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 02/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
23.2 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
23.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 30 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
2ND OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 022200 TO 032200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35
24H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55
36H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0
48H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
60H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the south-east, moderating from
mid-period (Also see information about Tropical storm
9 FYTIA above).
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1022 hPa 37s10w.
Low 1008 hPa 21s52e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : SE 10 to 15, but SW 05 to 10 in the east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
south-east until mid-period.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise
S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in
the south.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east until mid-period, with a SW swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 15 to 20 in the north-east, otherwise Anticyclonic 05 to
15, but NW 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in the extreme south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west, with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the west and north-east from
mid-period, but variable 05 to 10 in the central parts.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
central parts.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 in the west, otherwise Anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south
and east.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east until mid-period, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the north-east, but E to NE
15 to 25 in the extreme west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
east.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : SE to S 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 in the south, but NW 10 to
15 in the north.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north,
spreading to the east from mid-period.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SW to W 05 to 15, but Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-east,
reaching 35 to 45, moderating from mid-period (Also see
information about Tropical storm 9 FYTIA above).
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north, but poor
to very poor in the south.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-east reaching 5.0m until mid-period,
with cyclonic swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise NW
10 to 20, but SW 10 to 20 in the west towards mid-period,
spreading to the east by the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the central and east
until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east and south, with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
2026/02/02 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- NIL.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/02 AT 0000UTC
- DEEPENING THUNDERY LOW 1006 NEAR 38S/58E, EXPECTED 999 NEAR 46S/60E THE 03/02 AT 06UTC.
- HIGH 1033 NEAR 41S/82E, STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD.
- COLD FRONT AXIS 37S/35E, 43S/41E, 50S/50E, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/02 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/03 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERY SQUALLS OVER EASTERN.
WIND: CLOCKWISE 5/6 OVER EASTERN AT TIMES 7. GUSTS. BECOMING
ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 FROM WEST.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERY SQUALLS OVER WESTERN.
WIND: CLOCKWISE 5/6 OVER WESTERN AT TIMES 7. NORTHERLY 4/5 OVER EASTERN,
AT TIMES 6 AT END. GUSTS.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH AT END OVER FAR SOUTH-
WESTERN.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERY SQUALLS OVER NORTH-EASTERN. FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-WESTERN.
WIND: CLOCKWISE 5/6 OVER NORTH-EASTERN AT TIMES 7 WITH GUSTS. NW 4/5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BACKING S 3/4 BEHIND.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH AT END OVER FAR NORTH-
EASTERN. W SWELL AROUND 3M OVER SOUTHERN.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERY SQUALLS SPREADING FROM NORTH-WEST.
WIND: INCREASING CLOCKWISE 5/6 AT TIMES 7 WITH GUSTS, BUT VARIABLE
3/4 OVER FAR SOUTHERN.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH LATER OVER NORTH-WESTERN.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.