PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 10/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 10/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 130 NM FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 5 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
10TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 101000 TO 111000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI):
======================================================
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
24H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0
36H: 2026/02/11 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2026/02/12 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
60H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35
72H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30
120H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 55 to 65 in the west until
mid-period (Also see information about the tropical
cyclone 10 GEZANI above).
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1023 hPa 29s10w, High 1024 hPa 36s48e
Low (GEZANI) 968 hPa 18s51s
Cold front: 38s13w, 45s00e, 51s08e into 56s05e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 10 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20, but NE 05 to 15 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in intermittent light rain towards the end of
the period.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-west spreading to the central
south by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme south-east
at first but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the extreme south-west towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the southern half, with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the north-east, otherwise NW 10 to 20
becoming SW 20 to 30 in the south-west towards mid-period and
spreading to the north-west and central south from mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the southern half
towards mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west from mid-period spreading to the
south-east by the end of the period, with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : E to NE 05 to 15 in the north-west at first, otherwise
anticyclonic 05 to 15, becoming N 10 to 20 over the northern,
southern and central parts from mid-period while also becoming NW
10 to 20 in the extreme south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
north-west and central north until mid-period and again over the
western half towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the eastern half reaching 4.0m in the south-
east, with SW to S swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places in the extreme west as
well as in the extreme central north.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
north-east from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m, with S swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : W 05 to 10 over the northern and central parts, otherwise S to SE
10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places over
the northern and central parts.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : N to NE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, but cyclonic 35 to 45
reaching 55 to 65 in the west until mid-period where it will
become NE to E 20 to 30(Also see information about the tropical
cyclone 10 GEZANI above), otherwise E to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good in the extreme north until mid-period, otherwise moderate to
poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in the extreme
central west.
SEA STATE: 4.0 to 5.0m in the central west reaching 6.0m at times, subsiding
to 3.0 to 3.5m from mid-period, with E to NE swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, but 10 in the extreme north spreading to the
north-east towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west drifting
to the south-east until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5m in the south-east at first and
subsiding in the north-west towards the end of the period, with
W to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/10 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CRO AND FAR SOUTHERN KER.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/10 AT 0000UTC
- COLD FRONT (CF) AXIS 29S/70E, 32S/72E, 38S/73E, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
- COLD FRONT (CG) AXIS 36S/62E, 42S/70E, 50S/77E, 54S/80E, STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD.
- BUILDING HIGH 1023 NEAR 36S/46E, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/10 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/11 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 BUT VARIABLE 2/3 OVER NORTH-EASTERN AND W 4/5 OVER FAR SOUTHERN.
SEA: BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM SOUTH BY SW SWELL 3 TO 5M.
VIS: MODERATE IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER EASTERN LOCALLY THUNDERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
WIND: CLOCKWISE 4/5, AT TIMES 6/7 WITH GUSTS AT FIRST OVER EASTERN, BECOMING GRADUALLY VARIABLE 2/4 FROM WEST.
SEA: MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTH-WESTERLY SW SWELL 3 TO 5M.
VIS: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MORE FREQUENT OVER SOUTHERN.
WIND: WESTERLY 5/6 AT TIMES 7, LOCALLY 8 AT FIRST OVER FAR SOUTHERN.
GUSTS. DECREASING 4/5 AT END OVER FAR WESTERN.
SEA: VERY ROUGH TO HIGH BY LONG SW SWELL 5 TO 7M, LOCALLY VERY HIGH AT FIRST OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN. BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM WEST AT END WITH SW SWELL ABATING 3 TO 5M
VIS: MODERATE OR POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER NORTH-EASTERN LOCALLY THUNDERY. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND.
WIND: NORTHERLY 4/5 AT TIMES 6, BACKING SW BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASING W 5/6 FROM WEST AT TIMES 7, LOCALLY 8 AT FIRST OVER FAR SOUTHERN. GUSTS.
SEA: BECOMING GRADUALLY VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM SOUTH-WEST BY LONG SW SWELL 5 TO 7M.
VIS: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.=