SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/11/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/11/2024 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 57.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM
THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/11/21 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT,
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
24H, VALID 2024/11/22 AT 06 UTC:
22.5 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT,
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
21ST OF NOVEMBER 2024 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 211000 TO 221000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/3/20242025
1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI)
2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 57.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY-SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 55.5 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 54.2 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0
36H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 53.5 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0
48H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.6 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 0
60H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. TRISTAN: NW 35 in the south-east until mid-period but S to SW 35 in
the south, becoming Cyclonic 35 in the north-west towards end
of period.
2. CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 in the south-west, drifting to the south-east by
end of period.
3. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 in the south-east by mid-period. (Also
see TC BHEKI information above).
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1022 hPa 32s07e, High 1025 hPa 31s77e
Low 997 hPa 42s03w
1. Cold Front: 30s20w 35s10w into 42s03w
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 but SW to W 05 to 10 in the east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the south and west, otherwise S to SE 05
to 15, reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-west but NE 05
to 10 in the north-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west, with SW to S swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east, but variable
05 to 10 in the extreme south-west.
VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
extreme north-east by mid-period.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the south-east until mid-
period but S to SW 15 to 25 in the western half, reaching 30
to 35 in the south, and SE 10 to 20 in the extreme west,
spreading to the western half towards end of period, while
becoming Cyclonic 25 to 35 in the north-west.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers, except in the north-
east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the southern half, with W
to SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the north-east, reaching 25 in the extreme
east, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 35 in the
south-west, drifting to the south-east by end of period. It
will become S to SW 05 to 15 in the east and north-east by
mid-period, reaching 20 to 25 in the south-west, spreading to
the south by end of period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-
west, drifting to the south-east by end of period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the southern half, reaching 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-
west, drifting to the south-east by end of period, with W to
SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SE to S 10 to 20 in the west, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20,
reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west towards end of period but
NE to E 10 to 20 in the north, and variable 05 to 10 in the
east.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the central parts but in the north-west until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south and north-west, reaching 3.5m in the south-
west, with SW to S swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE to E 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north but in the
south-west at first. It will become variable 05 to 10 in the
extreme south-west by mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the north-east but in the west until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north with S swell, becoming 3.5 to 4.5m in
the north-east towards mid-period, with long period NE swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the central parts, otherwise SE to S 05
to 15 reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east, with S to SE swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west, otherwise SE to S 10 to
20, reaching 25 in the south-east, where it will become
Cyclonic 30 to 35 by mid-period. (Also see TC BHEKI
information above).
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east, rising to 4.5 to 5.5m in the
second half of the period, with a long period NE to E swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at
first, but in the west towards mid-period, spreading to the
east towards end of period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north
and south.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east at first,
with W to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
24/11/21 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE FORCE 8 OVER KER.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/11/21 AT 0000UTC
- HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 31S/77E, EXTENDING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS ON 31S/77E, 33S/63E, 36S/36E. SLOW-MOVING.
- SLIGHTLY ACTIVE UNDULATING FRONT NEAR 35S OVER WAM AND AMS.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/11/21 AT 0600UTC TO 24/11/22 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FEW SHOWERS.
WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4.
SEA : MODERATE LOCALLY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SLIGHT SW SWELL.
VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FEW SHOWERS.
WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 SETTING-UP W 5 OVER SOUTHERN AREA.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL, 2 TO 3 M FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
RARE SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING, SHOWERS AT THE END OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA.
WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 6, LOCALLY 7 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA,
DECREASING WESTERLY 4 TO 6 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W SWELL, 3 TO 4 M.
VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS
WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 7, LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W OR WSW SWELL, 3 TO 4 M.
VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.