SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/10/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/10/2026 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AGUEDA) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 52.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/10/21 AT 06 UTC:
5.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/10/21 AT 18 UTC:
6.1 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
20th OF OCTOBER 2026 AT 17:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 202200 TO 212200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1.CAPE EAST: W to NW 35 in the west for the first half of the period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1026 hPa 34s72e High 1022 hPa 25s01w.
Low 1004 hPa 41s48e Low 1000 hPa 39s30w Low 1000 hPa 39s13e.
1. Cold Front: 30s42e 34s44e 36s46e into 41s48e.
2. Cold Front: 21s31w 28s21w 35s16w into 39s30w.
3. Cold Front: 33s06e 35s11e into 39s13e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 but variable 05 to 10 in the east.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 in the north and north-east, but NW to W 10
to 20 in the south-west, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-
west.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the south.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east until mid-period, with S to SW swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the west and north-west
from mid-period but variable 05 to 15 in central east and
south-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west and north-west from mid-period, with
W to SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 10 in the north-east and west, but NW 20
to 30 in the south-east at first, otherwise W to SW 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
south-east, and in the west towards mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m except in the northern parts, reaching 4.5 to 5.5
in the south-eastern parts at first, with W to SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : Cyclonic 15 to 25 in the eastern parts at first, otherwise W
to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the west for the first
half of the period but SW 15 to 25 in the south-west,
spreading to the west by mid-period and the central parts
towards the end of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the central
and western parts.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the western parts, with W
to SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : N to NE 15 to 25 in the north-east and south-west, otherwise W
to NW 10 to 20 but variable 05 to 15 in the central and south
becoming SW 10 to 20 in the south-west from mid-period.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in
the central and eastern parts.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the central and western parts for the first
half of the period, with W to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 but S to SE 10 to 20 in the south-west at
first.
VIS : Good.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20 in the north otherwise N to NE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, moderate showers and rain in places in the north.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the north-eastern parts for the first half
of the period, otherwise NW to W 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the
north-west and south-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in rain and showers in places in
the west and south.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0 in the north-west from mid-
period, with E to SE swell in the north-eastern parts,
otherwise W to NW swell.
AREA 2:
======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/10/20 AT 1700UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
Gale over CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/10/20 AT 1200UTC
- Low 997 HPA near 41S/49E, with associated cold front (CF) and warm front (WF), expected 1002 HPA near 43S/58E at end.- High1026 HPA near 35S/72E with a ridge extending south-westward, moving eastward.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/10/20 at 1800UTC to 26/10/21 at 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Frontal rain, showers and squalls over southwest half.
WIND: North-westerly 4/5, reaching 6 ahead of the cold front, with gusts
in the south. Backing South-westerly 2/4 behind the front in the
southwest.
SEA : moderate to rough from north to south.
VIS : poor to very poor in precipitation.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Few showerse.
WIND: Northern half: variable anticlockwise 2/4, settling Northerly to
northwest 3/4 at end. Southern half: settling North-westerly 4 to 6
from north to south, but at first variable anticlockwise 2/4 with
southwest 4/5 in the east and North 4/5 in the west.
SEA : Rough to very rough from west to east, becoming moderate later in
the northwest. Southwest swell 3 to 5 m from west to east, abating.
VIS : Poor in precipitation.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
Frontal rain, showers and squalls over northern.
WIND: Northern half: clockwise 6/7, reaching 8 in south of the low,
becoming variable 2/4 in west later.Southern half: Easterly 5/6,
locally 7 in the north, and Northwesterly 3/4 in the south, then
settling during the day Northerly to Northeasterly 4/6.
SEA : Rough to very rough, becoming moderate to rough in the south.
Southwest swell 2/4m abating, then clockwise swell 2/4 m in north.
VIS : Poor to very poor in precipitation.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
Frontal rain, showers and squalls soon over northern.
WIND: Northern half: Southwest 5/6, locally 7 in the east and variable
2/4 in the west, soon settling from west Westerly to Northwest 6/7
with strong gusts in the north and Easterly 6/7 in the
south. Southern half: variable anticlockwise 2/4, increasing East
to Northeast 5/6 in the northwest during the day. But at first
southwest 6/7 in the east.
SEA: rough to high from west to east, becoming rough at the end.
Southwest swell 4/6 m, abating from the west.
VIS : poor to very poor in precipitation.