SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
32.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 39.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 14 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
24.7 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
20TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 202200 TO 212200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL DEPPRESSION 7
============================================
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 37.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 110
24H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 120
36H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 185
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: SW to S 35 to 40 in the southern parts drifting to
the south-east by mid-period. (Also see
information about the Tropical Depression 7
above.)
2. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to SW 35 in the north-eastern parts for the
first half of the period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1032 hPa 36s09w,
Low 992 hPa 44s44e, Low 998 hPa 35s49e.
1. Cold Front: 32s36e 35s41e 40s45e into 44s44e.
Tropical Disturbance 7: 1002 hPa 24.7s39.6e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north-east from
mid-period.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the east and south-east for
the first half of the period.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east and south-east, spreading to the central
parts from the second half of the period, with SE Swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south for the first half
of the period.
VIS : Moderate in rain in the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south and west, with SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but SE to E 10 to 20 in the north.
VIS : Moderate in rain in the north and south-east for the first
half of the period.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the north and north-
east.
VIS : Moderate in rain in the southern and western parts for the
first half of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north and north-east, with S to SE swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SW to S 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the eastern parts, but SE to E
10 to 20 in the north-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
eastern parts for the first half of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m except in the west, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the
south-east, with S to SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the north-western parts for
the first half of the period, but N to NW 10 to 20 in the
north-east.
VIS : Good in the west, otherwise moderate to poor in showers
and thundershowers.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m reaching 4.0 to 4.5m in the north-west, with S to
SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : NW to N 15 to 25 in the south-east, otherwise SW to S 15
to 25,reaching 30 to 40 in the southern parts, drifting to
the south-east by mid-period.(Also see information about the
Tropical Depression 7 above.)
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers
in the northern parts but heavy in the south-eastern parts.
SEA STATE: 4.0 to 5.0m in the south-west spreading to the south-
eastern parts from the second half of the period, with S to SW
swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 15, but N to NW 10 to 20 in the south for the
first half of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north
and the south-east for the first half of the period.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to SW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in the north-eastern parts for
the first half of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers in the northern and south-western
parts, drifting to the south-eastern parts from the second
half of the period.
SEA STATE: 4.5 to 5.5m in the north-eastern well as the south-west from
the second half of the period, otherwise to 3.0 to 3.5m, with
W to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA
ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/01/20 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40%
STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- STORM EXPECTED OVER WAM (CF BMS 041/6 AND FOLLOWING)
- STRONG GALE RUNNING OVER KER.
- GALE EXPECTED OVER CRO AND AMS.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/20 AT 1200UTC
- SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUDZAI OVER NORTH OF WAM, EXPECTED ENTERING
SOON OVER NORTHERN WAM, THEN BECOMING POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
- WAVING FRONT AXIS 29S/45E, 34S/49E, 39S/54E, 39S/65E, 42S/80E,
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD.
- LOW 991 NEAR 44S/43E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AXIS 44S/43E,
40S/44E, 36S/42E, 33S/36E, STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD.
- HIGH 1022 NEAR 32S/77E, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/20 AT 1800UTC TO 26/01/21
AT 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. SQUALLY WEATHER LINKED WITH
DUDZAI.
WIND: NORTHERLY 4/5 BUT 6/7 CLOSE TO THE FRONT, BACKING SW 5/6 BEHIND
AT TIMES 7, BUT CLOCKWISE 8/9 IN THE VICINITY OF DUDZAI AT TIMES 10.
SEVERE TO VIOLENT GUSTS.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY MODERATE AT FIRST OVER
NORTH-EASTERN, BUT HIGH TO VERY HIGH WITH DUDZAI, WITH CYCLONIC SWELL
6 TO 9M.
VISI: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AT FIRST. SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
FAR WESTERN AT END.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 AT TIMES 5, INCREASING SOON N 5/6 OVER
WESTERN, LOCALLY 7/8 AT END OVER FAR WESTERN. GUSTS.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH OVER FAR WESTERN
AT END.
VISI: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER.
WIND: VARIABLE 2/4 OVER FAR SOUTHERN, BUT CLOCKWISE 5/6 ELSEWHERE, AT
TIMES 7/8 OVER NORTH-WESTERN. GUSTS.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BY W SWELL 3 TO 5M
ABATING, BECOMING SOON MODERATE TO ROUGH BUT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER
NORTH-WESTERN.
VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED RAIN OVER NORTHERN AT FIRST, THEN SOON FRONTAL RAIN,
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM NORTH-WEST AND DRIFTING GRADUALLY
SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WIND: WESTERLY 4/5 BUT 6/7 AT FIRST OVER SOUTH-EASTERN AT TIMES 8,
BECOMING GRADUALLY CLOCKWISE 4/5 BUT 6/7 OVER NORTHERN. GUSTS.
SEA: VERY ROUGH TO HIGH BY W SWELL 4 TO 6M ABATING, BECOMING SOON
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
VISI: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.