WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
05TH OF MAY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 052200 TO 062200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. TRADES: S to SE 35 in the north-east.
2. CAPE WEST: S to SE 35 to 40 in the south-east until mid-period.
3. CAPE EAST: W to SW 35 to 40 in the extreme west and south-east at first,
but SE to E 40 to 50 in the west and north-west, spreading to
the south by the end of the period.
4. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 35 in the south-west.
5. MARION FORTIES EAST: S to SW 35 to 45 in the south-east, drifting to the
east towards the end of the period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1028 hPa 34s14w, High 1033 hPa 46s19e, High 1019 hPa 30s62e
Low 972 hPa 64s01w, Low 1006 hPa 30s33e, Low 967 hPa 55s54e
1. Cold Front: 35s13e 40s01e 45s05e 50s06e into 64s01w
2. Cold Front: 34s38e 40s49e 43s65e 45s68e 50s66e into 55s54e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 15 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east until mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme
north-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west with S to SW swell, but with SE swell in
the south-east.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the east, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30
in the south.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, spreading over the central parts
towards mid-period, with S to SE swell.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20,
reaching 25 in the north until towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
extreme south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north-east with S to SE swell, but 3.5 to 4.5m
in the south-west with S to SW swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-east until towards the end of the
period, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the
north-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m reaching 4.0m in the north and south-east, with S to
SE swell, but with SW swell in the south-east until mid-period.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but NW 10 to 20 in the east, reaching 25
to 30 in the south-west towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
north-east, but in the south-west towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern and western halves, reaching 4.5 to
5.0m in the south-west, with W to SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the southern and western parts,
otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the south-east
until mid-period, but NW 10 to 20 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the eastern
and south-western parts.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the central and eastern halves, reaching 5.0 to
6.0m in the south-east, with S to SE swell, becoming 3.0 to 3.5m
in the western half towards the end of the period, with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the north-east, but W to SW 30 to 40 in the
extreme west, but in the south-east at first, otherwise SE to E
20 to 30 reaching 40 to 50 in the west and north-west, spreading
to the south by the end of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, becoming good in
the east and south-east towards mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m but 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west, reaching 6.0 to
7.0m in the north-west towards mid-period, with SE to E swell,
but with SW swell in the east.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Cyclonic 25 to 35 in the south-west, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20
reaching 25 in the north.
VIS : Good, but poor in showers and thundershowers in the west and
south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the west, reaching 3.5 to 4.0m in the south-west towards
mid-period, with SE to E swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise variable 05 to 10, but NE to
N 15 to 25 in the south-west, spreading to the west towards the
end of the period.
VIS : Good.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north-west, but NE to E 05 to
15 in the south, reaching 20 to 25 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in places in the northern and
central parts.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : S to SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 45 in the south-east, drifting to
the east towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in snow showers over the eastern
parts, but in the south-western parts towards the end of the
period.
SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m reaching 7.0 to 9.0m in the south-east towards mid-
period, with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
2026/05/05 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE IN PROGRESS OVER CRO AND KER.
- GALE EXPECTED OVER WAM AND AMS.
- SEVERE GALE EXPECTED OVER CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/05/05 AT 0000UTC
- LOW 975 DEEPENING NEAR 59S/50E MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CF OVER CRO ORIENTED ALONG 45S/50E, 50S/54E, EXPECTED LATER
OVER WAM AND KER, ORIENTED ALONG 36S/49E,50S/79E ON THE 06/05 AT 00 UTC.
- LOW 985 IS DEEPENING NEAR 53S/72E WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CG OVER AMS
AND KER, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS.
- HIGH 1019 NEAR 32S/55E MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARDS.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/05/05 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/05/06 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS SOON OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA DUE TO CF.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 OVER NORTHERN AREA BUT NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 OVER
SOUTHERN AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT CF, SOON 6 TO 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 WITH GUSTS BEHIND.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH OVER NORTHERN AREA, BUT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AREA. SW SWELL 3 METERS OVER EASTERN AREA ABATING, BUT W
SWELL 2 TO 4 METERS OVER SOUTHERN AREA LATER.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND LOCALLY THUNDERY SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH CG THEN FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTH-WESTERN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CF AT END.
WIND: NORTH-WEST 4 TO 6 WITH GUSTS OVER EASTERN AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT CG
BACKING SOUTH-WEST 4 TO 6 WITH GUSTS OVER WESTERN AREA BEHIND. THEN
ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 LATER OVER NORTH-WESTERN AREA BUT NORTH-WEST 6 TO
8 WITH STRONG GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CF.
SEA : ROUGH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA. SW SWELL 2 TO 3
METERS.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS DUE TO CF.
WIND: NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 LOCALLY 8 AHEAD OF THE FRONT CF BUT SOUTH-WEST 4
TO 7 BEHIND, INCREASING 6 TO 9 OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA AT END. SEVERE
GUSTS.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA
LATER. CROSSED SEA, S SWELL 2 TO 3 M OVER EASTERN AREA AT FIRST BUT
WESTERLY SWELL 2 TO 5 METERS LATER.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS DUE TO CG OVER EASTERN AREA, THEN FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RAIN BY WESTERN AREA DUE TO CF SOON.
WIND: WESTERLY 6 TO 7 LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS BUT INCREASING SOON NORTH-
WEST 6 TO 8 AHEAD OF THE FRONT CF BACKING SOUTH-WEST 4 TO 6 BEHIND
LATER.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY HIGH. CROSSED SEA, SW SWELL 3 TO 5 M.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.