***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 01/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (FYTIA) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
21.6 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 31/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 47.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
19.8 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/01 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
31ST OF JANUARY 2026 AT 16:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 312200 TO 012200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 140
24H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
36H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 45
48H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
72H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95
120H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): Cyclonic 35 to 40 over the
central and south of Madagascar from the second half of the period.
Also see information about the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1021 hPa 37s10e
High 1031 hPa 45s59e
Low 998 hPa 17s46e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA)
1. Cold Front: 33s20w 36s12w 39s06w into 43s48w
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 2.5m in the west, with S to SW swell.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND :Variable 05 to 10.
VIS :Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 10 to 15 in the north otherwise variable 05 to 10.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south.
SEA STATE: 2.5m, with S to SW swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise S
to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 2.5m in the south-west spreading to the north and east from
the second half of the period, with a SW swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the north and north-east at first, otherwise SW to
S 15 to 20 in the south-west, spreading to the south and east
towards mid period. It will become anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the
west by the of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
north-east drifting to the extreme north-east by the end of the
period.
SEA STATE: 2.5 with SW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the south-west, and SE 10 to 20 in the north-east,
otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers in the extreme south-
west drifting to the west by the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, becoming 2.5m from the west in the second
half of period with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 in the east and south-west, otherwise variable
05 to 10kt becoming NE 05 to 15 in the west by end of the period.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers over the central.
SEA STATE: 3.5 in the extreme south-west at first spreading to the west
towards mid-period, with SE swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 but variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and
north-east.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the
south-western parts in the first half of the period.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the south and central, but NW
20 to 25 in the north, reaching 30 north-east of Madagascar
at first.
VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in
the north.
SEA STATE: 2.5m in the north-east with NWly swell and south-east in
south with a SEy swell at first.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the
north-west spreading south-wards towards mid-period
reaching 35 to 40 in the second half of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
west spreading to the central from the second half of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.5m over the central, spreading to the south from the
second half of the period, with NELy swell in the north and
SEly swell in the south.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NE 10 to 15 in the north-east, but anticyclonic 10 to 15 in the
extreme south-west, drifting to the west by end of period.
otherwise N to NW 15 to 25.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south-west,
drifting to the west and southern parts in the second half of the
period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, spreading to the west towards mid-period
reaching 3.5 to 4.0 in the extreme south-west with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/01/31 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
Nil.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/31 AT 1200UTC
Thundery low 1007 near 28S/54E, very slowly moving Southward over
WAM area. Associated squally line.
High 1031 hPa near 45S/60E moving slowly Eastward.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/31 at 1800UTC to 26/02/01
at 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Showers and thunder squalls with severe gusts near deepening low.
WIND: Becoming Clockwise 5 to 6 by Northern area but E 5 to 6
locally 7 over Southern and Eastern area.
SEA: Moderate to rough. NE swell 2 to 3 meters over North-Eastern
area at end.
VIS: Poor or very poor under precipitation.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Frontal rain or showers over western later, elsewhere scattered
showers.
WIND: NE 3 to 4 over Eastern area, and 4 to 5 over Western
area but 6 over far Western at end.
SEA: Moderate.
VIS: Poor under precipitation.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
Scattered over Northern later
WIND: Anticlockwise 3 to 4 but E 5 to 6 over Northern area and
NW over 5 to 6 over far Southern area.
SEA: Moderate to rough locally very rough in far South-Eastern
area at beginning. W to SW 2 to 3 meters.
VIS: Poor under precipitation.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
Scattered showers.
WIND: Becoming anticlockwise 4 to 5 locally 6 over North-Western
area and 6 to 7 sur South-Eastern area.
SEA: Moderate over far Northern area, but rough to very rough
in South. SW swell 2 to 4 meters.
VIS: Good.