WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
19TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 191000 TO 201000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 55/10/20252026
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.6 S / 41.6 E
(THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
24H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 535 SW: 175 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 140 NW: 165
36H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 555 SW: 325 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 270
48H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 785 SE: 720 SW: 335 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 465 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 335
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
60H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 50.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 870 SE: 610 SW: 415 NW: 630
34 KT NE: 510 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 380
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 140
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. TRISTAN: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east.
2. CAPE WEST: S to SE 35 in the south-west where it will become 40 towards end
of period.
3. CAPE EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the south-east until mid-period (Also see
information about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above).
4. MARION FORTIES EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the north-east until mid-period
(Also see information about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
GEZANI above).
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1026 hPa 43s18e
Low 1008 hPa 37s06w, Low 990 hPa 39.45s 44.44e (see information
about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above)
1. Cold front: 33s07w 35s05w 37s04w 38s05w into 37s06w.
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 10.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : NW to W 10 to 20 in the south-east where it will become SW 10 to 20
from mid-period, otherwise SE to S 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south-east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east from mid-period, where it will reach
4.5m by end of period.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : NW 05 to 15 in the south-west where it will reach 25 from mid-period,
Otherwise, S to SE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain in the south-west where it will become
poor in thundershowers from mid-period.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to S 15 to 25, becoming cyclonic 20 to 30 in the central east
reaching 35 to 45, but NW 15 to 25 in the extreme west, reaching 30
in the south-west by end of period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the eastern parts and in
the south-west by end of period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the central parts spreading over the eastern parts
from mid-period while reaching 4.5 to 6.0m, with S to SE swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 35
in the south-west where it will become 40 towards end of period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the west towards
mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m with S to SE swell reaching 3.5 to 5.0m in the south-west from
mid-period, with SE swell but NE in the north-west.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise SW 10 to 20, but cyclonic 30
to 40 in the south-east until mid-period, becoming NW 05 to 15 in the
central-south by end of period (Also see information about POST-
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above).
VIS : Good, but moderate in the showers and rain in the west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the west, with S swell. 4.0 to 6.0m in the
east moderating to 3.0m in the east from mid-period, with cyclonic
swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 in the east and west, otherwise SW to W 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : SE to S 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain at times.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north, but cyclonic 30 to 40 in
the north-east becoming S 10 to 20 in the east from mid-period and NW
10 to 20 in the south-west by end of period. (Also see information
about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above).
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the northern half, but
poor to very poor in the north-east until mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, with SW swell, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the north-east,
reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the extreme north-east until mid-period, with
NE swell.
AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/19 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40%
STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- GALE TO LOCALLY SEVERE GALE CONTINUING OR EXPECTED OVER WAM, CRO ET KER.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/19 AT 0000UTC
- POST-TROPICAL LOW 10 (GEZANI) 990 HPA NEAR 38S/43E, SQUALLY
WEATHER. MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD, DEEPENING LATER. EXPECTED 983
NEAR 44S/52E AT 00 UTC THE 20/02.
- COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF KER.
- HIGH1025 HPA NEAR 37S/67E, WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/19 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/20 AT
0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS, MORE FREQUENT OVER WEST OF AREA.
WIND: MAINLY NOTHERLY, 3 TO 5 IN NORTH, INCREASING SOON 6 TO 7 ON FAR
SOUTH, TEMPORARILY 8 IN FAR SOUTHWEST. SEVERE GUSTS.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING SOON ROUGTH TO VERY ROUGH AND
CROSSED OVER SOUTHWEST AREA.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4, LOCALLY 5 AT FIRST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST.
SEA: MODERATE IN SW SWELL, LOCALLY ROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST.
VIS: GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
HEAVY RAIN AND SHOWERS.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4, BUT SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 AT THE BEGINNING
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST, INCREASING SOON CLOCKWISE 7 TO 8 FROM NORTHWEST,
AT TIMES 9 DUE TO EX-GEZANI. SEVERE GUSTS.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH IN SW SWELL, LOCALLY VERY STRONG OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST. BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH ANS CROSSED FROM NORTHWEST.
VIS: VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
WIND: SOUTH-WESTERLY DECREASING 3 TO 5 FROM THE NORTH, BUT 7 TO 8
WITH GUSTS DECREASING 5 TO 6 OVER SOUTHEAST AREA. BACKING NORTHERLY 5
TO 6 FROM WEST AT THE END.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY HIGH AT SOUTHEAST. SW SWELL
INCREASING 3M TO 5M FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
VIS: MODERATE TO POOR IN PRECIPITATION.