SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/10/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/10/2026 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AGUEDA) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 52.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/10/21 AT 18 UTC:
6.0 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
24H, VALID 2026/10/22 AT 06 UTC:
6.4 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
21st OF OCTOBER 2026 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 211000 TO 221000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. CAPE EAST: W to SW 35 in places in the west.
2. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to SW 35 in the west from mid-period spreading
to the central parts by mid-period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1022 hPa 24s01e.
Low 990 hPa 41s28e.
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 15 but SW 05 in the east.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise NW 10 to 20.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers in the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west from mid-period, with W swell.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 but NW 05 to 10 in the south-west.
VIS : Good.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the west.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain but poor in the west at times.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west reaching 4.5m from mid-period, with W
to NW swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : NW 10 to 20 but SW 20 to 30 in the south-east.
VIS : Good in the north-east, otherwise moderate in showers and
rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south reaching 4.0 to 5.0m in the south-
east, with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the east at first, otherwise N to NW 20
to 30 but W to SW 20 to 30 in the west spreading to the
central parts by mid-period while reaching 35 in places in the
west.
VIS : Good in the east for the first half of the period, otherwise
moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east with S swell, but 3.5 to 4.5m over the
central and western parts reaching 5.0 to 5.5m in places in
the west, with W to SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 over the central parts, otherwise N to NW 10
to 20 but SW 10 to 20 in the extreme south-west.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-
east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west from mid-period, with SW
swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE 10 to 20 but SE 10 to 20 in the extreme north.
VIS : Good.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : N to NW 20 to 30 becoming W to SW 25 to 35 in the west from
mid-period spreading to the central parts by mid-period.
VIS : Good in the east for the first half of the period, otherwise
moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5m in the north-west, with NW swell but
SW swell in the west.
AREA 2:
======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/10/21 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
GALE OVER KER AT FIRST.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/10/21 AT 0000UTC
- LOW 997 HPA NEAR 41S/53E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (CF) AND WARM FRONT (WF), EXPECTED 997 HPA NEAR 47S/58E AT END.- HIGH1026 HPA NEAR 34S/77E, MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/10/21 AT 0600UTC TO 26/10/22 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.
WIND:NORTHWESTERLY 4/5, REACHING 6 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH. DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY 2/4 BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN AT FIRST.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FEW SHOWERS, MORE FREQUENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN AT END.
WIND:NORTHERN HALF: VARIABLE ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4.SOUTHERN HALF: NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 6 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN AT FIRST. SOUTHWEST SWELL 3 TO 5 M FROM WEST TO EAST, ABATING SOON.
VIS: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN.
WIND : EASTERN
HALF: CLOCKWISE 6/7 DECREASING 5/6 FROM THE NORTH.WESTERN HALF: N 5/6, OVER SOUTHERN BUT VARIABLE 2/4 OVER NORTHERN SETTING N 5/6 LOCALLY 7 BY SOUTHWESTERN AT END.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, BECOMING MODERATE TO ROUGH LATER. CLOCKWISE SWELL 2/3 M.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS SOON OVER NORTHERN.
WIND :E 6/7 TEMPORARILY 8 AHEAD THE FRONT BACKING NW 5/6 BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEA: ROUGH TO HIGH FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING MODERATE TO ROUGH AT END.
SOUTHWEST SWELL 4/5 M, ABATING FROM THE WEST.
VIS: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION