SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 11/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 1008 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 44.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
11TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 112200 TO 122200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20252026
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 44.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0
36H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
48H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 20 NW: 30
72H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 425 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
120H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 535 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 30
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east drifting to the
south-west towards the end of the period. (Refer to
additional information of OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10
GEZANI).
2. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 in the north-east until mid-period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1032 hPa 38s05w, High 1026 hPa 36s52e
Low 966 hPa 59s27e
1. Cold front: 34s14e 40s20e 45s24e 50s30e 53s35e 54s40e 57s45e 60s42e
60s35e into 59s27e.
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : NE 05 to 15 in the south-west until mid-period, otherwise E to SE
05 to 15 reaching 20 in the south-east at first.
VIS : Good.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east towards the end of the period, with S to
SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 10 to 20 in the extreme north-east, but anticyclonic 05
to 15 in the south-east, otherwise N to NW 10 to 20. It will be
cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west, with NW to W swell.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the west becoming
SW 10 to 20 in the south from mid-period.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding in the west towards mid-period,
with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise SW to S 20 to 30 in the
west becoming S to SE 10 to 20 from mid-period spreading to the
south-east by the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
central parts spreading to the south-east from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places in the extreme west
and extreme central north at first, becoming S to SE 10 to 20
in the extreme south-west towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-
west at times.
SEA STATE: 3.0m over the eastern half at first, with S to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : N to NW 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15, but
cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east drifting to the south-west
towards the end of the period. (Refer to additional information
of OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI).
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the
north, but poor to very poor in the central parts drifting
towards the south-west towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 4.0 to 5.0m in the central east drifting to the south-west
towards the end of the period while reaching 6.0 to 7.5m, with NE
swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : E to NE 05 to 15, but SE 05 to 15 in the north.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers at times.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the north-east until mid-period, but
SW 20 to 30 in the west spreading to the east by mid-period. It
will become NW 20 to 30 in the south-west towards the end of the
period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers becoming good in
the west by mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west towards
mid-period, with NW swell, but SW in the west towards the end of
the period.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/11 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
GALE EXPECTED OVER CRO
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/11 AT 0000UTC
- COLD FRONT CF 43S/55E, 45S/60E, 49S/64E.
- WARM FRONT WG 51S/34E, 56S/30E, 58S/24E.
- HIGH 1025 OVER WAM AND AMS
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/11 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/12 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.
WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/5.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH BECOMING MODERATE FROM WEST AT END. SW SWELL
2 TO 4 M ABATING AT END.
VIS : GOOD.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN.
WIND : CLOCKWISE 3/5.
SEA : BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM SOUTHWESTERN BY. SW SWELL 3 TO
5 M.
VIS : GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED RAIN (CF) OVER EASTERN AT FIRST, RAIN (WG) OVER FAR WESTERN AT END.
WIND : W 4/6 INCREASING NW 7/8 AT END.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. SW SWELL 3 TO 5 M.
VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAIN (CF).
WIND : WESTERLY 4/6.
SEA : VERY ROUGH BECOMING ROUGH AT END. SW SWELL 4 TO 6 M DECREASING 2 TO 4
M AT END.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.=