SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 01/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 50.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
21.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
22.4 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
1ST OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 012200 TO 022200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0
24H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35
48H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35
72H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35
120H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): Cyclonic 35 to 40
south-east of Madagascar from second half of the period.
Also see information about the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA).
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1024 hPa 37s21w
Low 1001 hPa 19s49e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA)
1. Cold Front: 33s05w 37s00w 42s13e into 47s17e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to E 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND :Variable 05 to 10.
VIS :Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south in the first
half of the period.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise
S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east.
VIS : Good becoming moderate in showers in the south towards the mid-
period until end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east, with a SW swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 reaching 15 to 25 in the north-east at
first but in the extreme south-west by the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in the east at first but in the
extreme south-west by the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 in the extreme south-west by the end of the period, with SW
swell
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : S 10 to 20 in the south-west and north-east,
otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers in the west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 in the east in the first half of the period, with SW swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 15 in the west and north-west, otherwise
anticyclonic 05 to 15kt.
VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers over the
central and south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.5 in the west spreading to the east by end of the period, with
SE swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 10 to 20 but N to NE 05 to 15 over the extreme west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south at first, but
over the extreme north-east by the end of the period.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : S to SE 10 to 15 in the south, but NW 10 to 15 in the north,
otherwise W 05 to 10.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
the north.
SEA STATE: 2.0m in the north-east with a NWly swell, but south-east in
the south with a SEy swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Cyclonic 15 to 25 drifting south-eastwards to the south-east, by
end of the period reaching 35 to 40 from second half of period.
VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers over
the central parts drifting to south-east in the second half of
the period including the northern parts towards end of period.
SEA STATE: 3.5m over the central, spreading to the south-east from the
second half of the period reaching 4.5m, with cyclonic swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NW 10 to 15 in the south-west otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15.
VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south-west,
drifting to the north-east towards end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5 in the south-west spreading the north-east by
towards mid-period with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA
ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/01 AT 1400UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40%
STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
- NIL.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/01 AT 1200UTC
- THUNDERY LOW 1008 NEAR 35S/58E, EXPECTED 1002 HPA NEAR 42S/63E AT
END.
- HIGH 1033 HPA NEAR 46S/75E EXTENDING BY A RIDGE OVER CRO AND MOVING
EASTWARD.
- COLD FRONT BY SOUTH-WESTERN CRO LATER AND MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/01 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/02
AT 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERY SQUALLS WITH GUSTS OVER EASTERNIN VICINITY OF
THE LOW.
WIND: CLOCKWISE 5 TO 7 SETTING-UP SOUTHERLY 3 TO 4 BY WESTERN SOON.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH. CYCLONIC SWELL 2 TO 3 M.
VISI: POOR OR VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS BY WESTERN AT FIRST.
WIND: E TO NE 3 TO 5 SETTING-UP NORTH-EASTERLY 6 TO 7 BY WESTERN
SOON.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH.
VISI: POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 BECOMING CLOCKWISE 5 TO 6 BY NORTHERN SOON
AND NW 4 TO 5 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY WESTERN.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH. W TO SW SWELL 2 TO 3 M BY WESTERN..
VISI: POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS BY NORTH-WESTERN MOVING SOUTHWZRD.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 4 TO 5 BECOMING CLOCKWISE 5 TO 7 BY
NORTH-WESTERN.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL 2 TO 3 M.
VISI: POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.