PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 36.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
25.4 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 37.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
24.7 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
13TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2
BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE
MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 131000 TO 141000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 37.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
24H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
36H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
60H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
72H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 130
120H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 140
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 55 to 65 at times in the
south-west (Refer to additional information of the
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI).
2. CAPE EAST: SW to W 35 to 40 in the extreme south-west spreading
to the extreme central south towards the end of the
period.
3. DURBAN EAST: N to NE 40 to 50 in the extreme north-west from mid-
period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1026 hPa 36s23e, High 1025 hPa 35s01e.
Low 1015 hPa 40s06w, Low 1009 hPa 31s33e, Low 966 hPa 21s37e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI).
AREA FORECAST:
==============
ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):
WIND : SE to S 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):
WIND : S to SE 05 to 10, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east.
VIS : Good.
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):
WIND : E to SE 10 to 20.
VIS : Good.
TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):
WIND : SE to S 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m reaching 4.0m in the south-east, with S to SE swell.
TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):
WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 over the eastern half, otherwise SW to S 10 to
20 spreading to the south-east by mid-period. It will become NW
10 to 20 in the south-west towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the
extreme south-east until mid-period.
CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):
WIND : SW to S 15 to 25 over the eastern half reaching 30 in the
south-east until mid-period, becoming S to SE 15 to 25 from mid-
period, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15 spreading to the south-
east by the end of the period.
VIS : Good.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east, with S to SW
swell.
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : SW to W 20 to 30 in the west reaching 35 to 40 in the extreme
south-west spreading to the extreme central south towards the end
of the period, otherwise N to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the
extreme south-east by the end of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but poor to
very poor in places at times over the eastern parts. It will be
clearing from the west from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west spreading to the east by mid-period,
reaching 4.0 to 6.0m in the west towards mid-period, with SW to W
swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in places in the central north
but 40 to 50 in the extreme north-west from mid-period, becoming
SW 25 to 35 in the extreme south-west towards the end of the
period.
VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in the
extreme south-west from mid-period spreading to the extreme
north-west towards the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the extreme
north-west from mid-period, with SW swell but N to NE in the
extreme north-west.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : N to NE 15 to 25, but cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 55 to 65 at
times in the south-west (Refer to additional information of the
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI).
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in
the extreme south-west.
SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m in the south-west reaching 7.0 to 8.0m at times
and in places in the extreme south-west, with N to NE swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15.
VIS : Good.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NW to N 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north-west spreading
to the south-east by mid-period. It will become SW to W 15 to 25
in the west towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good at first, otherwise moderate to poor in showers and
thundershowers.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the southern half and extreme
west, with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
26/02/13 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
NIL
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/13 AT 0000UTC
- COLD FRONT OVER CRO AND KER AXE 41S/50E, 50S/75E, MOVING EASTWARDS.
- HIGH 1028 HPA NEAR 37S/75E, ALMOST STATIONARY.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/13 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/14 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTH, FRONTAL RAIN OVER FAR SOUTH-WEST.
WIND:
NORTHERN HALF: NORTHERLY TO NORTH-EAST 3/4, LOCALLY 5.
SOUTHERN HALF: NORTHERLY 3/4, INCREASING LATER TO 5/6 WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AREA.
SEA: MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH-WEST AT THE END.
VIS: GOOD.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN QUARTER.
WIND:
NORTHERN HALF, EASTERLY 4/5.
SOUTHERN HALF, ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4.
SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING MODERATE. SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2/3M ABATING.
VIS: GOOD.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
RAIN OR FRONTAL SHOWERS.
WIND:
NORTHERN HALF: NORTH-WESTERLY 5/6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING VARIABLE 2/4 BEHIND, INCREASING LATER NORTH-WESTERLY 5/6, LOCALLY 7 IN THE NORTH-WEST.
SOUTHERN HALF: WESTERLY 4 TO 7 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SETTLING NORTHERLY 4/5 LATER.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M.
VIS: POOR DURING PRECIPITATION.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS.
WIND:
WESTERLY 5/6, LOCALLY 4, DECREASING LATER 4/5 LOCALLY 3.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY MODERATE. WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M.
VIS: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.=