PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
24H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
OTHER INFORMATION:
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2:31:08:11:00
PAN PAN
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII(S) MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES ISSUED ON TUESDAY 13 JANUARY 2026 AT 0100 UTC.
PART 1A: TTT WARNING OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
AT 0000 UTC, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 948 HPA WAS CENTRED
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S 78.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST).
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
PART 1B: TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE
STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL 8/1 AND EXTREME
NORTH WEST 8/2.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 0000 UTC ON TUESDAY 13 JANUARY
2026.
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 12S 55E INTO LOW 1010 HPA NEAR 11S 60E,
CONTINUES ALONG 14S 67E INTO ITC DUDZAI NEAR 17.1S 78.0E THEN
CONTINUES ALONG 12S 83E.
RIDGE ALONG 06S 46E, 02S 59E, 02S 84E.
EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 12S 88E INTO WAVE NEAR 08S 94E.
WAVE NEAR 18S 70E.
HIGH 1030 HPA NEAR 38S 64E.
PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID TILL WEDNESDAY 14 JANUARY 2026 AT 0000
UTC.
CENTRAL 8/1: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1B.
REMAINING 8/1: SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25. SEA LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN
EXTREME NORTH EAST, ROUGH ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY
SHOWERS IN NORTH EAST AND CENTRAL NORTH.
EXTREME NORTH WEST 8/2: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1B.
REMAINING 8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20, STRENGTHENING TO 25 IN
NORTH WEST. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN EAST, ROUGH ELSEWHERE.
VISIBILITY POOR IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN EXTREME WEST.
8/3: CLOCKWISE 05-15 IN NORTH WEST. SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY
05-15 IN SOUTH EAST, STRENGTHENING TO 25 IN EXTREME SOUTH EAST. SOUTH
EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST. WESTERLY 05-15 ELSEWHERE.
SEA LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH EAST, ROUGH IN SOUTH EAST AND
EXTREME SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY POOR
IN THUNDERY SHOWERS IN NORTH AND EXTREME SOUTH.
EXTREME SOUTH WEST 8/4: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.
REMAINING 8/4: NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 10-20 IN NORTH WEST.
EASTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY 05-15 IN NORTH EAST. SOUTH EASTERLY TO
NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH WEST AND CENTRAL
SOUTH AND IN THUNDERY SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY
SHOWERS.
8/5: WESTERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. NORTH
EASTERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 05-15 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE BECOMING
LOCALLY ROUGH IN THUNDERY SHOWERS IN SOUTH. VISIBILITY POOR IN
THUNDERY SHOWERS.
8/6: CLOCKWISE 05 IN EXTREME SOUTH EAST. SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY
05-10 IN REMAINING SOUTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY 05-15 ELSEWHERE.
SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN THUNDERY SHOWERS IN SOUTH AND
EAST. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.
8/7: SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY 10 IN EXTREME SOUTH EAST. NORTH
EASTERLY 15-20 IN NORTH WEST. NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY 10-15 ELSEWHERE.
SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN THUNDERY SHOWERS IN SOUTH.
VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.
PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:
ITC DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARDS WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
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