Bulletinset for METAREA 10 Edition date (UTC): 2025-12-28 07:20:53 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PERTH ============================ WTAU05 APRF 280650 IDW23100 40:2:2:24:13S120E999:11:00 SECURITE OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at 0650 UTC 28 DECEMBER 2025 GALE WARNING Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 15 nautical miles of latitude thirteen decimal one south (13.1S) longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal five east (119.5E) Recent movement : south at 5 knots Maximum winds : 30 knots Central pressure: 999 hPa The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours.. AREA AFFECTED Within 40 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0600 UTC 29 December. Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant by 1200 UTC 28 December and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant by 1200 UTC 28 December and within 40 nautical miles in SW and NW quadrants by 0000 UTC 29 December with rough seas and moderate swell. Forecast positions At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 35 nautical miles of 14.3 south 119.5 east Central pressure 998 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 south 119.8 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au. Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2025. AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTHERN ============================ FQAU21 AMMC 280715 40:2:1:31:11:01:00 IDY10240 SECURITE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN METAREA 8/10/11 NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST, 125E TO 142E ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 1100 UTC 28 DECEMBER 2025 PART 1 WARNINGS NIL. PART 2 SITUATION AT 280600 UTC TROUGH NEAR 12S095E 10S103E 09S115E TO TROPICAL LOW (08U) 1004HPA NEAR 12S120E. FORECAST TROUGH 10S090E 08S099E 07S110E 12S120E AT 291200UTC. MONSOON TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA NEAR 17S136E 19S140E 17S143E. FORECAST NEAR 20S140E 20S143E 19S144E AT 291200UTC. PART 3 FORECAST SOUTH OF LINE 11S134E 10S137E 13S142E: NORTHWESTERLY QUARTER WINDS 20/30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. LOW SWELL. SOUTH OF LINE 10S119E 10S123E: NORTHWESTERLY QUARTER WINDS, SHIFTING WESTERLY QUARTER WEST OF TROUGH AND TURNING CLOCKWISE WITHIN 60NM OF TROPICAL LOW (08U). WIND SPEEDS 20/30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. LOW TO MODERATE SWELL. REMAINDER: WINDS NOT EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOW SWELL, INCREASING TO MODERATE SOUTH OF LINE 10S090E 07S107E 08S119E. RAIN AREAS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT AREA. HEAVY AT TIMES WITHIN 120NM OF TROPICAL LOW (08U), AND WITHIN 180NM OF MONSOON TROUGH. SQUALLS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LINE 10S137E 13S142E. VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION. PLEASE BE AWARE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE AVERAGES. WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PER CENT STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST, AND STRONGER STILL IN SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM WAVES CAN BE TWICE THE FORECAST HEIGHT. WEATHER MELBOURNE THE NEXT ROUTINE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 19:15 UTC SUNDAY.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST WESTERN ============================ FQAU23 AMMC 280103 IDY10220 SECURITE Updated High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10 12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 27 December 2025 Part 1 Warnings Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. Gale Wind Warning for 08U issued by TCWC, Australia. Melbourne Gale Warning 3. Part 2 Situation at 271800 UTC Tropical Low (08U) 1004hPa near 12S119E. Forecast Tropical Low (08U) 1005hPa near 14S119E at 290000UTC. Forecast trough entering from west near 45S072E 50S076E at 280300UTC, then near 41S078E 50S090E at 290000UTC. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather system. West of line 21S114E 23S104E 29S105E 34S114E: Southeasterly quarter winds 20/33 knots, shifting southerly within 120nm of the Australian coast. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell. Within 180nm of line 20S089E 18S092E: Easterly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Moderate swell. South of line 41S080E 50S094E, outside of warning area: Easterly quarter winds 20/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. South of line 40S080E 49S100E, outside warning area: Northwesterly quarter winds 20/33 knots within 480nm east of trough, shifting westerly quarter west of trough. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell, rising up to heavy west of line 50S098E 42S098E 31S129E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 180nm of trough and low. Heavy at times within 180nm of Tropical Low (08U). Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Sunday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST SOUTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU22 AMMC 280019 IDY10210 SECURITE Updated High Seas Forecast for South Eastern METAREA 10 SOUTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 25S TO 25S170E TO 29S170E TO 45S160E TO 50S160E TO 50S129E TO COAST AT 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 27 December 2025 Part 1 Warnings Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. Melbourne Gale Warning 4. Part 2 Situation at 271800 UTC Low 1004hPa east of area near 40S166E. Forecast low 995hPa near 32S165E at 290000UTC. Trough [1] near 25S168E 28S171E. Forecast near 25S171E 29S172E at 280600UTC, then exiting east of area. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather system. Between line 25S153E 34S152E 43S161E and 165E, outside warning area: Southerly quarter winds, turning clockwise within 420nm of low. Wind speeds 20/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell. South of line 50S142E 49S129E, outside warning area: Westerly quarter winds 20/30 knots, easing below 25 knots after 280600UTC. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell, increasing up to heavy swell west of line 33S129E 39S134E 50S140E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 180nm of trough and within 420nm of low. Heavy at times within 60nm of trough. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Sunday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU20 AMMC 272000 IDY10230 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10 NORTHEASTERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 25S, 142E TO 170E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 27 December 2025 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 271800 UTC Trough 17S148E 18S156E 25S168E. Forecast trough 13S161E 17S167E 25S175E at 290000UTC. Part 3 Forecast South of line 18S146E 14S161E 17S170E: Northwesterly quarter winds east of trough, shifting southeasterly quarter south of trough. Wind speeds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Low to moderate swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low swell. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 240nm of trough and north of 2S. Heavy at times west of line 15S147E 20S150E and east of line 19S165E 25S170E. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Sunday.