Bulletinset for METAREA 10 Edition date (UTC): 2026-01-05 04:34:21 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PERTH ============================ WTAU05 APRF 050050 IDW23100 40:2:2:24:11S097E999:11:00 SECURITE OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at 0050 UTC 5 JANUARY 2026 STORM FORCE WIND WARNING Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 20 nautical miles of latitude eleven decimal zero south (11.0S) longitude ninety seven decimal four east (97.4E) Recent movement : south southeast at 14 knots Maximum winds : 35 knots Central pressure: 998 hPa The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant. FORECAST Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 06 January. Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in the SE and SW quadrants after 1800 UTC 05 January, with very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant extending to within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant after 1200 UTC 05 January and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant after 1800 UTC 05 January, with rough seas and moderate swell. Forecast positions At 1200 UTC 05 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 13.3 south 97.3 east Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0000 UTC 06 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.9 south 96.3 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au. Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 05 January 2026. AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST SOUTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU22 AMMC 042000 IDY10210 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for South Eastern METAREA 10 SOUTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 25S TO 25S170E TO 29S170E TO 45S160E TO 50S160E TO 50S129E TO COAST AT 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 4 January 2026 Part 1 Warnings Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. Melbourne Gale Warning 2. Part 2 Situation at 041800 UTC Trough [1] 40S150E 44S151E, just south of area. Forecast trough 54S163E 56S160E 56S153E at 050000UTC, then well south east thereafter. Trough [2] 46S136E 50S131E. Forecast trough [2] near 48S147E 50S145E at 050600UTC, then exiting south. Trough [3] near 31S155E 40S151E 45S154E. Forecast trough [3] 34S155E 40S156E 45S160E at 060000UTC. Forecast cold front near 42S122E 47S129E 50S130E at 060000UTC, entering area from west. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. South of line 43S129E 44S137E 50S157E, outside warning areas: Westerly quarter winds shifting northwesterly quarter north of trough [1], and within 180nm east of cold front. WInd speeds 20/33 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell increasing to low to moderate swell south of line 36S129E 43S150E 45S160E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 120nm of troughs and cold front. Heavy at times within 60nm of trough [3]. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Monday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST WESTERN ============================ FQAU23 AMMC 042000 IDY10220 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10 12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 4 January 2026 Part 1 Warnings Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone 11U. Melbourne Gale Warning 2. Melbourne Gale Warning 12. Part 2 Situation at 041800 UTC Tropical low (11U) 1000hPa near 09.5S096.7E. Forecast Tropical low (11U) 993hPa near 14.4S096.7E at 060000UTC. Cold front 40S094E 46S102E 50S104E. Forecast 42S122E 47S129E 50S130E at 060000UTC then east of area. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected. Within 240nm of Tropical low (11U), outside warning areas: Clockwise winds 15/25 knots, increasing to 20/33 knots within 180nm of tropical low (11U). Moderate to rough seas, rising up to very rough within 180nm of tropical low (11U). Low to moderate swell. South of line 40S080E 38S100E 44S129E, outside warning areas: Northwesterly quarter winds 20/33 knots, shifting westerly quarter west of cold front. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. East of line 32S114E 34S114E: Southerly quarter winds 20/33 knots from 050600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Low to moderate swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 180nm of front, north of line 12S108E 19S105E 19S090E. Heavy at times within 60nm of low. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Monday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU20 AMMC 042000 IDY10230 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10 NORTHEASTERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 25S, 142E TO 170E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 4 January 2026 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 041800 UTC Trough 19S146E 16S149E. Forecast trough near 15S146E 17S148E 17S152E 19S155E at 060000UTC. Part 3 Forecast Within 180nm south of trough [1]: Easterly quarter winds 15/25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low swell. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north of line 22S149E 22S156E 09S161E 09S170E, and within 180nm of trough [1]. Heavy at times within 60nm of trough [1]. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Monday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTHERN ============================ FQAU21 AMMC 041915 40:2:1:31:11:01:00 IDY10240 SECURITE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN METAREA 8/10/11 NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST, 125E TO 142E ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 2300 UTC 4 JANUARY 2026 PART 1 WARNINGS OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11U. PART 2 SITUATION AT 041800 UTC REFER TO LATEST WARNINGS FOR DETAILS OF THE AREA AFFECTED. TROPICAL LOW (11U) 1000HPA NEAR 09.5S096.7E. FORECAST TROPICAL LOW (11U) 993HPA NEAR 14.4S096.7E AT 060000UTC. PART 3 FORECAST REFER TO LATEST WARNINGS FOR DETAILS OF THE AREA AFFECTED. WITHIN 240NM OF TROPICAL LOW (11U), OUTSIDE WARNING AREAS: CLOCKWISE WINDS 15/25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 20/33 KNOTS WITHIN 180NM OF TROPICAL LOW (11U). MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, RISING UP TO VERY ROUGH WITHIN 180NM OF TROPICAL LOW (11U). LOW TO MODERATE SWELL. EAST OF LINE 07S133E 14S134E: NORTHWESTERLY QUARTER WINDS 10/20 KNOTS, REACHING UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. LOW SWELL. REMAINDER: WINDS NOT EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOW SWELL, INCREASING UP TO MODERATE WEST OF LINE EQ098E 06S105E 12S109E. RAIN AREAS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WHOLE AREA. HEAVY AT TIMES WITHIN 240NM OF TROPICAL LOW (11U) AND WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION. PLEASE BE AWARE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE AVERAGES. WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PER CENT STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST, AND STRONGER STILL IN SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM WAVES CAN BE TWICE THE FORECAST HEIGHT. WEATHER MELBOURNE THE NEXT ROUTINE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 07:15 UTC MONDAY.=