Bulletinset for METAREA 10 Edition date (UTC): 2025-04-17 09:50:05 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PERTH ============================ WTAU05 APRF 170713 IDW23100 40:2:2:24:15S119E400:11:00 SECURITE OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at 0713 UTC 17 APRIL 2025 HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol was centred within 15 nautical miles of latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S) longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal four east (119.4E) Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots Maximum winds : 85 knots Central pressure: 961 hPa AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Maximum winds to 85 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 18 April. Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre very high to phenomenal seas. Winds above 48 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre with high seas and heavy swell. Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and moderate swell. Forecast positions At 1800 UTC 17 April: Within 35 nautical miles of 15.8 south 120.6 east Central pressure 979 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. At 0600 UTC 18 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.3 south 122.4 east Central pressure 990 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au. Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 17 April 2025. AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST SOUTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU22 AMMC 170900 IDY10210 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for South Eastern METAREA 10 SOUTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 25S TO 25S170E TO 29S170E TO 45S160E TO 50S160E TO 50S129E TO COAST AT 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 17 April 2025 Part 1 Warnings Melbourne Gale Warning 2. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Low [1] 976hPa near 35S166E, forecast low 982hPa near 39S165E at 181200UTC. Trough [1] 37S141E to low [2] 1011hPa near 41S142E to 47S148E 50S157E, forecast 38S147E 42S147E to low [2] 1004hPa near 46S145E at 181200UTC. Trough [2] west of the area, forecast near 31S127E 38S129E at 180000UTC, and near 31S130E 45S138E 50S138E at 181200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Within 720nm of low [1], outside warning area: Clockwise winds 20/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. West of line 44S131E 50S138E: Northwesterly quarter winds 25/33 knots east of trough [2]. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 120nm of troughs, and within 480nm of low [1], heavy at times within 120nm of low [1] in southern semicircle. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Thursday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST WESTERN ============================ FQAU23 AMMC 170900 IDY10220 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10 12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 17 April 2025 Part 1 Warnings Hurricane Force wind warning issued by TCWC Melbourne for Tropical Cyclone "Errol". Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone "Errol" 961hPa near 15.2S119.4E, forecast Tropical Cyclone "Errol" 976hPa 16.5S123.1E at 181200UTC. Trough near 33S121E 40S123E 50S123E, forecast near 31S127E 38S129E at 180000UTC, moving east of the area thereafter. Cold front [1] near 44S097E 47S099E 50S099E, forecast near 47S113E 49S120E 50S121E at 181200UTC. Cold front [2] west of the area, forecast near 47S078E 50S083E at 180600UTC, and near 44S080E 50S090E at 181200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings. Within 240nm of Severe Tropical Cyclone "Errol", outside warning area: Clockwise winds 25/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Low to moderate swell. East of line 23S110E 28S106E 35S115E: Southeasterly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Moderate swell. South of line 41S080E 46S105E 44S116E 47S129E: Northwesterly quarter winds east of trough/fronts, shifting southwesterly quarter winds west of trough/fronts. Wind speeds 25/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell, increasing to moderate to heavy swell south of line 39S106E 35S114E 47S129E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 240nm of fronts and trough, and within 240nm of Tropical Cyclone "Errol". Heavy at times within 120nm of Tropical Cyclone "Errol". Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Thursday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTH-EASTERN ============================ FQAU20 AMMC 170900 IDY10230 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10 NORTHEASTERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 25S, 142E TO 170E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 17 April 2025 Part 1 Warnings Nil Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Trough near 07S142E 10S156E 17S170E, forecast near 09S142E 10S159E 16S170E at 181200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Whole area: Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low swell, increasing to low to moderate swell south of line 21S152E 17S156E 15S162E 22S167E 20S170E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly, north of line 14S144E 14S163E 20S170E. Heavy at times within 90nm of trough. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Thursday. ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST NORTHERN ============================ FQAU21 AMMC 170815 40:2:1:31:11:01:00 IDY10240 SECURITE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN METAREA 8/10/11 NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST, 125E TO 142E ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 1100 UTC 17 APRIL 2025 PART 1 WARNINGS NIL. PART 2 SITUATION AT 0600 UTC TROUGH NEAR 06S090E 05S100E 12S118E, FORECAST NEAR 04S090E 04S096E 07S107E 12S120E AT 181200UTC. LOW 1002HPA NEAR 10S137E, FORECAST LOW 1004HPA NEAR 12S140E AT 181200UTC. PART 3 FORECAST WITHIN 300NM OF LOW: CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. LOW SWELL. SOUTH OF LINE 07S117E 06S121E 12S123E: NORTHWESTERLY QUARTER WINDS 15/25 KNOTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. LOW TO MODERATE SWELL. REMAINDER: WINDS NOT EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOW SWELL, INCREASING TO LOW TO MODERATE SWELL SOUTH OF LINE 05S090E 04S096E 10S119E. RAIN AREAS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA, HEAVY AT TIMES WITHIN 180NM OF LOW. VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION. PLEASE BE AWARE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE AVERAGES. WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PER CENT STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST, AND STRONGER STILL IN SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM WAVES CAN BE TWICE THE FORECAST HEIGHT. WEATHER MELBOURNE THE NEXT ROUTINE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 20:15 UTC THURSDAY.=