Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-07 15:28:57 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 071204 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1007 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER,IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/08 AT 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H, VALID 2026/02/08 AT 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM OTHER INFORMATION: INTERRUPTION OF THE BULLETINS ON THIS SYSTEM, PENDING FURTHER RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SECURITE SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII(S) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF MAURITIUS (FQIO25 FIMP).= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 071330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 07TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 072200 TO 082200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL DEPPRESSION 10: ============================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2026/02/07 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/08 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 57.1 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.6 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100 36H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.7 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150 48H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.2 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 120 60H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.4 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100 72H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 50.3 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW 35 in the west and south-west, spreading to the east and south-east towards the end of the period, while reaching 40 from the south-west. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1023 hPa 28s05w, High 1025 hPa 41s01e, High 1020 hPa 40s70e Low 981 hPa 52s28e, Low 1001 hPa 44s45e 1. Cold Front: 34s10e 40s20e 45s27e into 52s28e 2. Cold Front: 33s38e 35s43e 40s46e into 44s45e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 20. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the north and east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the south until mid-period. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-east, otherwise NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south at first. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west and south- west, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west until mid-period, with W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west, drifting to the east and south-east towards the end of the period, while becoming anticyclonic 05 to 15 from the south-west. VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south- east, spreading to east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, drifting to the east and south-east from mid- period, with SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 in the south and east until mid-period, SE to E 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places in the east and south-west, spreading over the central parts towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at first, but in the south-west from towards mid-period, with W to SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south and south-east, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north and west. It will become S to SW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards mid-period, where it will also become SE to E 15 to 25 towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south and south-west towards mid-period. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : NW 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at first and towards the end of the period, but variable 05 to 10 over the central parts. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places over the northern and central parts. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-east at first, with SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east towards the end of the period. (Also see information about the Tropical Depression 10 above). VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places, but good in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east by the end of the period, with E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25 but SW 25 to 35 in the west and south-west, spreading to the east and south-east towards the end of the period, while reaching 40 from the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the west and south-west, spreading to the east and south-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the west and south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the east by the end of the period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/02/07 AT 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/02/07 AT 0000UTC - COLD FRONT CF AXIS AT 35S/70E, 37S/80E MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH AMS ZONE. - NEW COLD FRONT CG AXIS 33S/32E, 36S/40E, 43S/42E APPROACHING OVERNIGHT CRO THEN WAM. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/02/07 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/02/08 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH CG OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREA TONIGHT. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5, INCREASING NORTH 5/6 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AREA AHEAD OF CG TONIGHT. SEA : MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH. VIS : POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) RAIN, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CF AND CONVERGENCE LINE ISSUE FROM EX FYTIA OVER THE NORTHWEST AREA. WIND: NORTHWEST 3 TO 5 AHEAD OF CF, RETURNING TO THE EAST 3/4 BEHIND. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH CG OVERNIGHT. WIND: WESTERLY 4 TO 6 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, INCREASING NORTH 5/6 LOCALLY 7 AHEAD OF CF, RETURNING NORTHWEST 4/5. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SOUTHWEST SWELL 2 TO 3 M OVER SOUTHERN AREA. VIS : POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN, MORE FREQUENT OVER SOUTHERN. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2/3 OVER NORTH, INCREASING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 OVER SOUTHERN, EASING WEST 4/5 OVERNIGHT. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH 2 M SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VIS : POOR DURING PRECIPITATION.