Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-03 21:43:34 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 031800 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 03/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 55.4 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/04 AT 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/04 AT 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 031700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03RD OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 032200 TO 042200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20252026 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 54.7 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65 24H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120 36H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 48H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.0 CI=3.5- GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 in the extreme south-east at first (see information about Tropical storm 9 FYTIA above). SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1026 hPa 37s06w. Low 992 hPa 24s55e (MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to S 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SW 05 to 10 but S to SE 05 to 10 in the south. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Poor in drizzle in the extreme north in the first half of the period, otherwise good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 over the central and south- eastern parts at first and towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north-east, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 10, but NW 15 to 25 in the south-west and spreading eastwards to the south-east by mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west, with NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 around the Cape Peninsula and in places in the west at first but persisting near the Cape Peninsula. It will become anticyclonic 05 to 10 in the south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers over the central parts spreading to the east towards the end of the period. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 in the north-west, otherwise variable 05 to 10 but SE 05 to 15 in the extreme west. It will become W to SW 10 to 15 in the extreme south-east from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers over the northern parts. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the extreme north-east at first, but E to NE 15 in the extreme west reaching 20 to 25 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the extreme north-east at first, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 m in the north-east, with SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east, but W to SW 10 to 15 in the north. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the extreme south-east during the first half of the period, reaching 35 at first, otherwise S to SW 10 to 20 but 05 in the north (Also see information about Tropical storm 9 FYTIA above). VIS : Poor in showers and thundershowers in the extreme south-east at first, otherwise good but moderate in thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5 m in the south-east, with S swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 20 to 30 in the south in the first half of the period, otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5 m in the south, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/03 AT 1500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/03 AT 1200UTC - LOW 997 NEAR 49S/77E, MOVING EASTWARD. COLD FRONT (CF) 27S/57E, 30S/63E, 35S/70E, 40S/75E, 51S/80E. - COLD FRONT (CG) 37S/39E, 40S/47E, 45S/57E, MOVING EASTWARD. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/03 AT 1800UTCTO 26/02/04 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : GOOD BUT POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) RAIN, SQUALLS AND SHOWERS (CF). WIND: NW 4/6 LOCALLY 7 OVER SOUTHERN AT FIRST, BECOMING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 LATER. SEA: MODERATE, LOCALLY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN, SQUALLS AND SHOWERS (CG). WIND: WESTERLY 3/5 LOCALLY 6 OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN, SQUALLS AND SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN AT FIRST (CF). SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOON (CG). WIND: CLOCKWISE 4/6 LOCALLY 7 OVER NORTHEASTERN AT FIRST, DECREASING WESTERLY 3/5 SOON. SEA : ROUGH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN AT FIRST, BECOMING MODERATE OVER WESTERN AT END. VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.