Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-13 00:58:18 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 130009 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 966 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 38.0 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 36.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 121829 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 12/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 966 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 39.1 E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/13 AT 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 121700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 12TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 121000 TO 131000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 41.0 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 24H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 36H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65 120H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 120 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.0- GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50 to 60 at times over the central parts drifting to the south-west by mid- period (Refer to additional information of the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI) 2. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 in the north-east and extreme south-west at first. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1030 hPa 37s00w Low 990 hPa 19s41e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI) 1. Cold front: 35s20w 37s18w 45s24e 40s16w 42s15w into 41s17w. 2. Cold front: 36s34e 43s41e 51s 47e 55s 50e 60s45e into 58s40e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 05 to 15. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the southern half, with S to SE swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-west spreading to the south-east by the end of the period, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west drifting to the south-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west spreading to the south-east by mid-period, with SW to W swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the north-east, but SW 10 to 20 in the south reaching 25 in the south-east from mid-period, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme south-east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding in the extreme west by mid-period, with S to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, but S to SE 10 to 20 in the extreme north-east, otherwise SW to S 10 to 20 becoming anticyclonic 05 to 15 from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the extreme north-west and the south-east, becoming poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in the central north from mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the west until mid-period, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places over the central northern parts. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme south-west from mid-period. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 in the south, but cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50 to 60 at times over the central parts drifting to the south-west by mid-period (Refer to additional information of the SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI), otherwise N to NE 05 to 15. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places over the north, but poor to very poor over the central parts drifting to the south-west by mid-period, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 5.5m in the central east reaching 6.0 to 8.0m at times drifting to the south-west by mid-period, with NE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers over the northern and central parts, otherwise good. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : NW 25 to 35 in the north-east at first, otherwise SW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in places, but NW 20 to 30 in the south-west reaching 35 in the extreme south-west at first spreading to the north and east by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west until mid-period, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west, with NW swell in the north-west, otherwise SW to W. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/12 AT 1500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN KER AT FIRST. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/12 AT 1200UTC - COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN CRO AT FIRST AND EXTENDING TO KER DURING THE PERIOD. - HIGH 1026 HPA NEAR 38S/67E, OVER WAM AND MOVING EASTWARD. - SECOND HIGH 1017 HPA BEHIND THE FRONT BY WESTERN CRO. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/12 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/13 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 LOCALLY 5 OVER SOUTHERN. SEA : BECOMING MODERATE. VISIBILITY : GOOD. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/4 INCREASING E 5 OVER NORTHERN. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. SW SWELL 2 TO 3 M ABATING. VISIBILITY: GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND : NW 5/6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACKING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 BEHIND AND WESTERLY 5/6 OVER SOUTHERN. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH OVER NORTHERN, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN. WESTERLY SWELL 2 TO 3 M. VISIBILITY: POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN.. WIND : WESTERLY 4 TO 6 OVER NORTHERN AND 6 TO 7 LOCALLY 8 WITH GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AT FIRST, DECREASING 4 TO 5 LOCALLY 6 EVERYWHERE LATER. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHERN. SW SWELL 2 TO 4 M. VISIBILITY : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.