Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-08 15:11:42 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 081206 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 56.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 150 NM FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/09 AT 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM 34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/09 AT 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 100 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM 48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 081330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 08TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 082200 TO 092200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI): ====================================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/08 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 56.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY-SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.4 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75 34 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 55 NW: 0 24H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 53.6 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 40 48 KT NE: 25 SE: 35 SW: 20 NW: 55 30H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.0 E, WIND MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 42H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 51.0 E, WIND MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 54H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 49.3 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 66H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 46.7 E, WIND MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 120 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: SE to E 35 in the west. 2. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period while reaching 50 to 55. (Also see information about the Tropical Depression 10 GEZANI above). 3. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW 35 to 45 in the southern half until towards the end of the period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1026 hPa 40s14e, High 1017 hPa 31s48e Low 945 hPa 63s17w, Low 957 hPa 56s38e 1. Cold Front: 35s14w 40s06w 45s02e 50s08e 55s08e into 63s17w 2. Cold Front: 37s32e 40s40e 45s46e 50s48e into 56s38e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the north and east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east towards mid-period. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but N to NE 05 to 15 in the south-west. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at first and towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-east, otherwise NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south, but in the west at first. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south and west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west towards mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east, but NW 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, with S to SE swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the north-west, otherwise SE to E 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the west, but S to SW 10 to 20 in the east until towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in places in the western parts, reaching 3.5 to 4.0m in the south, drifting to the south-east towards the end of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 but 25 in the north and west, reaching 30 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme north towards the end of the period, with SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : NW 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east, but variable 05 to 10 over the central parts. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places over the northern and central parts. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-east towards the end of the period, with SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east, where it will become cyclonic 35 to 45 towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period while reaching 50 to 55. Also see information about the Tropical Depression 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the northern and central parts, becoming poor to very poor in the east towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east, where it will reach 4.0 to 6.0m by mid- period, drifting to the central parts towards the end of the period, with E to SE swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 45 in the southern half until towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in snow-showers over the southern half until mid-period. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m reaching 7.0 to 8.0m in the south, drifting to the south-east towards the end of the period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/02/08 AT 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE EXECTED AT END OVER CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/02/08 AT 0000UTC - THUNDERY LOW 1009 NEAR 27S/63E, SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITH ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING FRONT AXIS 31S/61E, 35S/74E, 39S/81E. - TWO FRONTAL AREAS CROSSING SOUTH WAM, CRO THEN KER. - HIGH 1023 NEAR 34S/91E WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/02/08 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/02/09 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSQUALLS IN NORTHEAST. FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST. WIND: - IN FAR NORTHEAST: CLOCKWISE 5 OR 6, AT TIMES 7 AT FIRST, DECREASING 4 OR 5 LATER. GUSTS. - ELSEWHERE: NORTHWEST 4 OR 5, AT TIMES 6, BUT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTS. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSQUALLS IN NORTHWEST. FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WIND: - IN FAR NORTHWEST: CLOCKWISE 5 OR 6, AT TIMES 7 AT FIRST. GUSTS. - ELSEWHERE: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4, BUT EAST 4 OR 5 BEHIND THE WAVING FRONT, BECOMING NORTHERLY 3 OR 4 LATER. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS. WIND: NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR 6, AT TIMES 7, INCREASING 7 OR 8 IN SOUTHWEST AT END. SEVERE GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND: WEST DECREASING 3 OR 4, INCREASING SOON NORTHWEST 5 OR 6 FROM WEST, AT TIMES 7. SEVERE GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.