Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2025-05-11 06:10:01 ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 101630 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 10TH OF MAY 2025 AT 16:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 102200 TO 112200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRISTAN: NW 35 to 40 in the south-west, spreading to the east and south-east towards mid-period. 2. CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period. 3. CAPE EAST: N to NW 35 to 45 in the south and south-east, but W to SW 35 to 40 in the west, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, while moderating from the west. It will become NW 35 in the south-west towards the end of the period. 4. DURBAN EAST: S to SW 35 to 40 in the west towards mid-period, moderating from the south-west towards the end of the period. 5. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S 35 in the south-west from mid-period. 6. MARION FORTIES EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the south, otherwise NW 35 to 40, but S to SW 35 in the west and south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, while moderating from the west. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1028 hPa 30s05w, High 1028 hPa 43s63e Low 983 hPa 46s34e 1. Cold front: 33s22e 36s26e 40s30e into 46s34e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 15 to 25. VIS : Good, but moderate in light showers in places in the extreme north-west but in the western half until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in places, with SE swell. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 but SW to W 05 to 15 in the east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, mainly S to SE swell. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the south-west, otherwise E to SE 05 to 15, reaching 20 to 25 in the north, but NE 05 to 15 in the south. VIS : Good, but moderate in light showers in the north-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north and east, with S to SE swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east and north-east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in places, reaching 4.0m in the south until mid- period, with S to SW swell, but with SE swell in the north. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the extreme north-east at first, otherwise NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west, spreading to the east and south-east towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the south and south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north, but 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period, with W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north and north-east, otherwise S to SW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east at first, but W to NW 15 to 25 in the south-west, where it will reach 30 to 40 towards mid-period, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south and east until towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m but 5.0 to 6.0m in the east and south-east until mid-period, with SW to W swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 reaching 35 to 45 in the south and south- east, but W to SW 30 to 40 in the west, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, while moderating to 10 to 20 from the west. It will become NW 25 to 35 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 8.0m in the west, spreading over the central and south-eastern parts towards the end of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the south and north-west, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20, but S to SW 10 to 20 in the extreme south-west, reaching 30 to 40 in the west towards mid-period, moderating to 15 to 25 from the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south and south-west from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, reaching 4.0 to 6.0m in the west towards mid- period, with S to SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 in the south at first, otherwise S 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 35 in the south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the northern parts. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west by the end of the period, with S swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE to E 10 to 20, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places, becoming good from the south by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, spreading to the north towards mid-period, subsiding towards the end of the period, with S to SE swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : Cyclonic 30 to 40 in the south, otherwise NW 30 to 40, but S to SW 25 to 35 in the west and south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, while moderating to 10 to 20 from the west. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but with possible snow-showers in the south. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m, subsiding to 3.0 to 4.0m from the south-west towards mid-period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 25/05/10 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE OVER CRO AND KER AND OVER FAR SOUTH WAM. - LOCALLY STRONG GALE OVER KER AND CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 25/05/10 AT 1200UTC - LOW 983 HPA DEEPENING NEAR 46S/34E WITH COLD FRONT CF ARRIVING OVER CRO, MOVING EAST RAPIDLY. - COLD FRONTS OVER EAST AMS AND EAST KER LEAVING THE AREA SOON. - HIGH 1028 HPA NEAR 34S/64E, EXPECTED 1033 HPA NEAR 35S/79E AT THE END. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 25/05/10 AT 1800UTC TO 25/05/11 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SCATTERED SHOWERS, THEN LATER OVER SOUTH-WEST AREA RAIN AND SHOWERS LOC THUNDERSTORMS (CF). WIND : NORTH HALF: NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 3/4, INCREASING NORTHERLY 5/6 OVER THE WEST DURING THE DAY. SOUTH HALF: NORTH-WESTERLY 3/5, INCREASING WESTERLY 6/7 WITH THE FRONT, REACHING LOCALLY 8 IN THE FAR SOUTH LATER. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SW SWELL 2/4M. VISI : POOR WITH PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE EAST ZONE AT FIRST. WIND : BECOMING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 FROM WEST, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY 5/6 IN SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY, BUT SOUTHERLY 4/5 IN EAST AT FIRST. SEA : ROUGH, VERY ROUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH. SW SWELL 2/4M. VISI : POOR WITH PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN, FRONTAL SHOWERS, THUNDER SQUALLS (CF) WIND : WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 6/7, INCREASING SOON 7/8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 9 LATER OVER EAST AREA NEAR 45 S, BUT WIND BACKING SOUTHEASTERLY 6/7 OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AREA DURING THE DAY. SEA : VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. SW SWELL 4/6M ABATING. THEN LATER, NORTHWEST SWELL 3/6M OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. VISI : VERY POOR. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS OVER THE EAST ZONE AT FIRST, THEN RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.( CF) WIND : WESTERLY 5/6, REACHING 7/8 IN THE SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, INCREASING DURING THE DAY NORTHWESTERLY 6/7 WITH STRONG GUSTS IN THE NORTH AND 7/8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS IN THE SOUTH, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 9 OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER. SEA : VERY ROUGH BECOMING HIGH IN THE SOUTH. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST SWELL 3/5M. VISI : VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.