Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-01-05 08:46:49 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 050622 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 (GRANT) 1006 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 56.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20-25KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/01/05 AT 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 24H, VALID 2026/01/06 AT 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM OTHER INFORMATION: LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 050611 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 (GRANT) 1006 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 56.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20-25KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/01/05 AT 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 24H, VALID 2026/01/06 AT 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM OTHER INFORMATION: LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 050830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 05TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 051000 TO 061000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER: GRANT =================================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20252026 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 (GRANT) 2.A POSITION 2026/01/05 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 56.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 24H: 2026/01/06 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 52.1 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2026/01/06 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.1 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 48H: 2026/01/07 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.6 E, WIND MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE WEST: SW 35 to 40 in the south-east towards the end of the period. 2. CAPE EAST: SW 35 to 40 in the south-west towards the end of the period. 3. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 to 40 in the west towards mid-period, drifting to the east towards the end of the period. SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1024 hPa 31s08w Low 992 hPa 47s12w, Low 1008 hPa 26s39e, Low 1006 hPa 34s46e 1. Cold Front: 35s19w, 40s13w into 47s12w Zone of Disturbed Weather (GRANT): 1006 hPa 16.2s 56.0e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but variable 05 to 10 in the north and east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise NW to W 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south at first, but in the west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south and south-west, with W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-west, otherwise SW 10 to 20, but 25 in the south-east where it will reach 30 to 40 towards the end of the period, while becoming W to NW 15 to 25 om the extreme east. VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain and showers in the south-east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, spreading over the southern half towards the end of the period while reaching 4.0 to 5.0m in the south, with W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north at first, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south. It will become SW 15 to 25 in the west towards the end of the period, while reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the south towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west, where it will reach 4.0 to 5.0m towards the end of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 over the central parts, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15 reaching 20 in the east. It will become S to SW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east, but in the west at first. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but N to NW 15 to 25 in the north. VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers over the northern parts. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15 but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the extreme west, drifting to the central parts towards mid-period. (Also see information about the Zone of Disturbed Weather (GRANT) above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme west by mid-period, with E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 40 in the west towards mid-period, drifting to the east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west, drifting to the east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the west by mid-period, spreading to the east by the end of the period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/01/05 AT 0400UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/01/05 AT 0000UTC - THUNDERY LOW 1006 NEAR 33S/45E, SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND FILLING A LITTLE. EXPECTED 1005 NEAR 40S/50E THE 06TH AT 00 UTC. - MODERATE OR FRESH WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER CRO AND KER. - HIGH 1027 OVER AMS NEAR 35S/74E, VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARDS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/01/05 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/01/06 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS OR SQUALLS IN WEST, AT TIMES THUNDERY, WIND: - IN FAR WEST : NORTHEAST 5 OR 6, BECOMING SOON CLOCKWISE. GUSTS. - ELSEWHERE : NORTHEAST 3 TO 5, LOCALLY ANTICLOCKWISE 2 OR 3 IN FAR EAST AT FIRST. SEA : MODERATE, LOCALLY ROUGH IN WEST. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : MODERATE IN PRECIPITATIONS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND: NORTHWEST TO NORTH 4 OR 5, AT TIMES 6 AND TO 7 OVER THE FAR SOUTH- WESTERN AT THE END. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH. WIND: WESTERLY 4 TO 5, AT TIMES 6 IN EAST. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.