Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-01-29 19:33:54 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 291804 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 29/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 42.1 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/01/30 AT 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM 48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM 24H, VALID 2026/01/30 AT 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM 48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM 64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 291225 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 29/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 42.0 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/01/30 AT 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 55 NM 34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM 24H, VALID 2026/01/30 AT 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 291630 CCA WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 29TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 16:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 292200 TO 302200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20252026 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9 2.A POSITION 2026/01/29 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 41.9 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/01/29 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100 24H: 2026/01/30 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 36H: 2026/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2026/01/31 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 150 72H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW to W 35 in the south-east at first. 2. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the north. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1020 hPa 30s28w High 1020 hPa 41s30e Low 972 hPa 53s01w Low 984 hPa 56s51e Low 1004 hPa 14s42e 1. Cold Front: 36s11w 41s03w 46s03e 51s06e 56s03e into 53s01w 2. Cold Front: 37s42e 42s43e 49s53e 54s54e 59s53e into 56s51e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW to S 05 to 10, but S to SE 05 to 15 in the west at first. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in places in the south-east towards the end of the period, but variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : SW to W 15 to 25 in the south-east at first, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15. It will become NW 15 to 25 in the south-west from mid- period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in places in the north-east and in showers and thundershowers in the south-west from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the extreme south subsiding from the south-west from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the north-east, otherwise NW to W 10 to 20 but SW 15 to 25 in the south-west drifting to the south-east from mid- period. It will become anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places in the central and south-eastern parts. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 5.0m in the south-west, with W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east at first, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20. It will become NW 10 to 20 in the extreme south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places in the east and in the south-west towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the central and eastern parts, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west becoming NE 05 to 15 from mid- period, otherwise SE to E 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the central and eastern parts. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west, with S to SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Cyclonic 25 to 35 in the north reaching 40 by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 in the south-east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the north reaching 4.5 to 5.5m from mid-period, with NW to W swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10, becoming NW 05 to 15 in the extreme north-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the extreme north. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise SW to W 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the south-east at first. It will become NW 15 to 25 in the south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the south-east at first, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/01/29 AT 1630UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING - Nil. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/01/29 AT 1200UTC - Frontal area over CRO and West KER later. - High 1030 near 42S/80E, slowly moving eastwards. - New high 1026 later by West of CRO. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/01/29 at 1800UTC to 26/01/30 at 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) Showers and squalls over far Northern later. WIND: Variable 3 to 4 setting-up East to South-East 4 to 5, locally 6 over Western at end. SEA :Moderate. VISI: Poor in precipitation. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) Few showers, becoming more frequents at end in far southwest. WIND: Anticlockwise 3 to 5. SEA : Moderate. VISI: Poor in precipitation. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) Frontal rain or showers. WIND: Northwest 5 or 6, at times 7 with severe gusts, backing West soon behind the front. Anticlockwise 3 to 4 by Western later. SEA : Moderate or rough, becoming rough or very rough in south later. West swell 4 m over Southern. VISI: Poor in precipitation. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) Frontal rain or showers. WIND: North-West 5 to 6, locally 7 over Southern ahead the front, backing West 5 to 6 by South-Western behind the front in the morning. SEA : Moderate or rough, becoming rough or very rough in southwest at end. VISI: Poor in precipitation.