Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-17 12:41:36 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 171201 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 045/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 986 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 42.5 E (THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 340 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 210 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 160 NM 34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM 48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 180 NM 34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 100 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 170604 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 044/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 986 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 44.0 E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 28 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/17 AT 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 135 NM 34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 75 NM 48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM 34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 170830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 17TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 171000 TO 181000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/10/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 44.0 E TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 28 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 70 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 445 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 510 SW: 480 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35 24H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 110 36H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 120 48H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.3 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 150 60H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 405 SW: 435 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205 72H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 45.0 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 555 SE: 640 SW: 425 NW: 435 34 KT NE: 350 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 280 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: SE to E 35 in the north-east, becoming cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east from mid-period. 2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the central and south-central parts until mid-period. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1027 hPa 38s10W, 1027 hPa 38s53e Low 1010 35s23e, Low 999 hPa 29.5 S / 44.0 E (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain in the north. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the north until mid-period ,otherwise anti- cyclonic 05 to 15, it will become SW to S 10 to 20 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-east, becoming moderate in showers and rain in places in the south-west towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east until towards the end of the period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the north-east, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25. It will become variable 05 to 10 in the south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the central parts, drifting to the south-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south and western parts, with SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE to E 20 to 30 in the east and south-west reaching 35 in the north- east, but NE to N 20 to 30 in the north-west. It will become cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east from mid-period Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above. VIS : Good, becoming moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-east spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west and north-east, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in places in the north-east from mid-period, with SE swell in the west, otherwise, NE to E. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the central and south-central parts until mid- period, but NE to N 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise variable 05 to 10 (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the central and south-central parts from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m except in the east and south-west, reaching 5.5 to 7.5m in the central and south-central until towards the end of the period, with E to SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10, but SE to S 10 to 15 in the south-west at first. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the central parts at times, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m except in the north, moderating from mid-period, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20, moderating towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the south-west drifting to the south-east from mid-period. It will become SW 10 to 20 in the south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and rain in the south-west drifting to the south-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/02/17 AT 0600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE EXPECTED OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/17 AT 0000UTC - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 987 NEAR 26.6S/44.5E, MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, EXPECTED SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEAR 32.7S/41.5E THE 18 AT 00 UTC. - COLD FRONT AXIS 33S/57E, 38S/68E, 43S/80E, LOSING ACTIVITY, BETWEEN TWO HIGH AROUND 1025 OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OF WAM AND FAR EAST OF AMS. - MODERATE OR FRESH WESTERLY FLOW, AT TIMES STRONG, IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/17 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/18 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. WIND: EASTERLY 3 TO 5, AT TIMES 6 OVER FAR NORTHWEST, BUT ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 IN FAR SOUTH. SEA: MODERATE OR ROUGH. VISI: POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4, BUT SOUTHERLY 3 TO 5 IN SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. SEA: MODERATE IN SW SWELL. VIS: POOR IN PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIND: IN FAR NORTH : ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO ,.ELSEWHERE : WESTERLY 4 OR 5, AT TIMES 6, TEMPORARILY 7 IN FAR SOUTH. GUSTS. SEA: MODERATE OR ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SW SWELL INCREASING SOON 3 OR 4 M IN SOUTH. VIS: POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND: WEST OR NORTHWEST 6 OR 7 WIT GUSTS, BACKING SOON SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING LOCALLY 6 IN FAR SOUTHEAST, BUT SOUTHERLY 3 TO 5 IN FAR NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEA: MODERATE OR ROUGH, BUT ROUGH OR VERY IN SOUTH, BECOMING LOCALLY HIGH AT END IN FAR SOUTHEAST. W SWELL INCREASING 3 OR 4 M SOON IN SOUTH. VIS: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.