Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-15 16:43:22 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 151227 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 037/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 982 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 40.2 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/16 AT 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 130 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/16 AT 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 125 NM 34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM 48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM 64 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 151600 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 15TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 16:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 152200 TO 162200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/15 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 40.2 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.3 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 200 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 80 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 405 SW: 45 NW: 30 24H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.8 E, WIND MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 215 NW: 125 34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 120 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 25 NW: 25 30H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.1 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45 42H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 42.8 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 54H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 29.6 S / 42.0 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 345 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 66H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 40.8 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 130 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: S to SE 35 in the north-east, but E to NE 35 to 40 in the west, spreading to the north-west towards mid-period. 2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 50 to 60 in the north, but SE to E 35 in the north- west until mid-period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). 3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 50 to 60 in the south, drifting to the south-east towards mid-period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1027 hPa 36s28e Low 957 hPa 55s02e Low 982 hPa 26.5s39.4e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). 1. Cold Front: 35s18w 40s06w 45s01e 50s10e into 55s02e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but variable 05 in the extreme south. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme south towards the end of the period. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but W to NW 05 to 15 in the extreme east and south-east, where it will become variable 05 to 10 towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.0m in the east, where it will subside to 3.0m from mid- period, with S to SE swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : NW 10 to 20 in the east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north-west, but variable 05 to 10 in the extreme north. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north, but in the south-east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west, spreading to the south-east by the end of the period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts until mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east at first, but NW 10 to 20 in the south-west, drifting to the south towards mid-period, while becoming S to SE 10 to 20 in the south- west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south and west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the north-east, but in the east until mid-period, with S to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the central parts, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the north-east, but E to NE 15 to 25 in the western half, reaching 30 to 40 in the west, spreading to the north-west towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers over the north-eastern parts at first. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 5.0 to 6.0m over the central parts, drifting to the northern parts towards mid-period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 50 to 60 in the north, otherwise SE to E 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the north-west until mid-period, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the north-east, reaching 25 to 30 in the extreme south-west from mid-period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good in the south-west, otherwise moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places, but poor to very poor in heavy thundershowers over the northern and central parts. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the western half, but 6.0 to 8.0m in the north with S to SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : N to NE 10 to 20, but cyclonic 50 to 60 in the south, drifting to the south-east towards mid-period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in heavy thundershowers in the south-east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern parts, reaching 6.0 to 8.0m in the extreme south-east, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the extreme south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the south. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the southern parts at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the north-west at first, with SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/15 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/15 AT 1200UTC - LOW 978 HPA NEAR 58S/58E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, MOVING EASTWARD. - HIGH 1031 HPA NEAR 36S/76E, ALMOST STATIONARY. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/15 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/16 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS. WIND : NW 4/5 LOCALLY 6 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING S 4/5 LOCALLY 6 BEHIND. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. W SWELL 2/3 M. VISI : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 , 5 AT TIME. SEA : MODERATE. VISI : GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS LOCALLY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND : NW 5/6 OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN, BACKING SW THEN W 4/6, LOCALLY 7 OVER FAR SOUTHERN. GUSTS. SEA : ROUGH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. WESTERLY SWELL 2/3 M. VISI : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS. WIND : NW 5/6 LOCALLY 7 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING W 4 TO 5 IN SOUTH-WEST. GUSTS. SEA : ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. W SWELL 2/4 M. VISI : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.=