Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-02 21:06:14 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 021815 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 02/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 53.4 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/03 AT 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/03 AT 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM 34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 021700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 2ND OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 022200 TO 032200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 53.0 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 24H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55 36H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0 48H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100 60H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 72H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL. GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the south-east, moderating from mid-period (Also see information about Tropical storm 9 FYTIA above). SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 37s10w. Low 1008 hPa 21s52e (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 FYTIA). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SE 10 to 15, but SW 05 to 10 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme south-east until mid-period. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west and north-east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east until mid-period, with a SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 15 to 20 in the north-east, otherwise Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but NW 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in the extreme south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the west and north-east from mid- period, but variable 05 to 10 in the central parts. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the central parts. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20 in the west, otherwise Anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south and east. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east until mid-period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the north-east, but E to NE 15 to 25 in the extreme west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : SE to S 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 in the south, but NW 10 to 15 in the north. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north, spreading to the east from mid-period. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SW to W 05 to 15, but Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-east, reaching 35 to 45, moderating from mid-period (Also see information about Tropical storm 9 FYTIA above). VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north, but poor to very poor in the south. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-east reaching 5.0m until mid-period, with cyclonic swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise NW 10 to 20, but SW 10 to 20 in the west towards mid-period, spreading to the east by the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the central and east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east and south, with SW to W swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/02 AT 1700UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1 : WARNING - Nil. PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/02 AT 1200UTC - Stormy low 1004 hPa near 40S/61E deepening, associated with a cold front (CF) axis on 41S/65E, 35S/62E, 30S/57E and a warm front (WF) axis on 39S/58E, 45S/67E, 43S/76E, the whole system moving south-eastward at 15/20 kt. - Cold front (CG) axis on 48S/52E, 42S/43E, 36S/34E moving eastward at 15/20 kt. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/02 at 1800UTC to 26/02/03 at 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) Rain, squalls and locally stormy frontal showers over the eastern area under CF, then under CG over the far south-western area at the end of the period. WIND : clockwise 5/6 over the eastern area at the beginning of the period, becoming anticlockwise 3/4. SEA : moderate, locally rough over the southern area. Arrival of a SW swell of around 2 m. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) Rain, squalls and locally stormy frontal showers under CF. WIND : northerly 4 to 6, locally 7 from east to west, settling up westerly 5/6 at the end of the period over the western area. Gusts. SEA : moderate, locally rough over the southern area. N to NW swell 2/3 m over the western area. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) Rain, squalls and frontal showers under CF over the eastern area at the beginning of the period, then under CG. WIND : clockwise 5/6, locally 7 over the north-eastern area at the beginning of the period, then veering westerly 3/4, locally 5. SEA : moderate to rough. SW swell 2/3 m. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations.