Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-09 03:02:11 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 090001 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 55.4 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 40 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/09 AT 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/10 AT 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 85 NM 34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 081802 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 55.9 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/09 AT 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM 48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/09 AT 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM 34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 081700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 08TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 082200 TO 092200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI): ====================================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/08 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 56.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY-SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.4 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75 34 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 55 NW: 0 24H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 53.6 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 40 48 KT NE: 25 SE: 35 SW: 20 NW: 55 30H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.0 E, WIND MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 42H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 51.0 E, WIND MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 54H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 49.3 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 66H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 46.7 E, WIND MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 120 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: SE to E 35 in the west. 2. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period while reaching 50 to 55. (Also see information about the Tropical Depression 10 GEZANI above). 3. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW 35 to 45 in the southern half until towards the end of the period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1026 hPa 40s14e, High 1017 hPa 31s48e Low 945 hPa 63s17w, Low 957 hPa 56s38e 1. Cold Front: 35s14w 40s06w 45s02e 50s08e 55s08e into 63s17w 2. Cold Front: 37s32e 40s40e 45s46e 50s48e into 56s38e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW to W 05 to 10 in the north and east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east towards mid-period. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but N to NE 05 to 15 in the south-west. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at first and towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-east, otherwise NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south, but in the west at first. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south and west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west towards mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east, but NW 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, with S to SE swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the north-west, otherwise SE to E 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the west, but S to SW 10 to 20 in the east until towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in places in the western parts, reaching 3.5 to 4.0m in the south, drifting to the south-east towards the end of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 but 25 in the north and west, reaching 30 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme north towards the end of the period, with SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : NW 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east, but variable 05 to 10 over the central parts. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places over the northern and central parts. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-east towards the end of the period, with SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the east, where it will become cyclonic 35 to 45 towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period while reaching 50 to 55. Also see information about the Tropical Depression 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in the northern and central parts, becoming poor to very poor in the east towards mid-period, drifting over the central parts towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east, where it will reach 4.0 to 6.0m by mid- period, drifting to the central parts towards the end of the period, with E to SE swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 45 in the southern half until towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in snow-showers over the southern half until mid-period. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m reaching 7.0 to 8.0m in the south, drifting to the south-east towards the end of the period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/08 AT 1700UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE EXPECTED AT END OVER SOUTH CRO. - LOCALLY STRONG GALE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/08 AT 1200UTC - THUNDERY LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT 1010 HPA NEAR 31S/64E, MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD. - COLD FRONT AXIS 36S/50E, 47S/57E, 49S/55E, MOVING EASTWARD. - COLD FRONT ARRIVING SOON OVER CRO WITH DEEPENING LOW 957 HPA NEAR 55S/38E, MOVING EASTWARD.. - HIGH 1022 HPA NEAR 33S/88E WITH RIDGE OVER SOUTH-WEST, MOVING EASTWARD. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/08 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/09 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. WIND: SOUTH 2/4 PREVAILING IN THE NORTH, AND TEMPORARILY NORTHWESTERLY 3/4 AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH, BACKING BEHIND SOUTHWESTERLY 3/4 LOCALLY 5 THEN SOUTHERLY 3/4 LOCALLY 5. SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH. NORTH-EASTERLY SWELL 2/3M IN THE NORTHEAST AND ARRIVAL OF SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER. VISI: POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND: NORTHERLY 4/5, LOCALLY 6 IN THE NORTHWEST, SETTLING DURING THE DAY WESTERLY 3/4 IN THE NORTHWEST AND LATER SOUTHERLY 3/4 IN FAR SOUTHWEST. BUT VARIABLE ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 IN THE EAST AT FIRST. SEA: MODERATE BUT ROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2/3M. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS. WIND: NORTH-WESTERLY 5/6 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING BEHIND WESTERLY 6/7 OVER NORTHERN HALF, LOCALLY 5 OVER FAR NORTH AND 7/8 OVER SOUTHERN HALF, LOCALLY REACHING 9 WITH STRONG GUSTS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. SEA: ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH, LOCALLY VERY HIGH IN THE FAR SOUTH-WEST. . ARRIVAL OF SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 3/6M FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS. WIND: NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY 5/6 AHEAD THE FRONT, LOCALLY REACHING 7 IN THE SOUTH, LATER BACKING BEHIND WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY 5/6 IN THE SOUTHWEST, REACHING 7 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AT END. BUT VARIABLE ANTICCLOCWIZE 2/4 OVER THE EAST AT START. SEA: MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN FAR SOUTHWEST AT THE END. SOUTHWEST SWELL 2/4M IN THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START AND ARRIVAL OF A NORTHWEST SWELL 2/4M IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER. VISI : POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.=