Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-13 20:30:34 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 131802 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 964 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 36.1 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 36.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM 34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM 48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM 34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM 48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 131209 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 36.4 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM 34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM 48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/14 AT 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM 34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM 48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 131700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 13TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 132200 TO 142200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/13 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 36.4 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 48H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 60H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75 72H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 155 120H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=5.0 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 55 to 65 at times in the extreme south-west (Also refer to additional information of the TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). 2. CAPE EAST: SW to W 35 in the west at times. 3. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the north-west reaching 65 to 75 in the extreme north-west, but S to SW 35 in the south-west from mid-period. 4. MARION FORTIES: SW to W 35 to 40 in the north-west from mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1027 hPa 36s21e, High 1026 hPa 35s03e. Low 1017 hPa 40s06w, Low 966 hPa 21s37e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to S 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 10, but SW 05 to 15 in the east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20, but variable 05 in the extreme south. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : SE to S 15 to 25 reaching 30 at times in the south-east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, with S to SE swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : NE 10 in the extreme north-east but variable 05 to 10 over the central and north-western parts until mid-period, otherwise N to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme south-east until mid-period. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SE 20 to 30 in the north-east, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the extreme east, with S to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise SW to W 20 to 30 reaching 35 at times, spreading to the central parts by mid-period and to the east by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but poor to very poor in places at times over the central and eastern parts. It will be clearing from the west by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m over the central parts and the south-east, but 4.0 to 6.0m in the west spreading to the central parts from the mid- period, with SW to W swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the north-west reaching 65 to 75 in the extreme north-west, but S to SW 25 to 35 in the south-west from mid-period, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers in the extreme west spreading to the central parts by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the extreme north-west, as well as extreme west from mid-period, with S to SW swell but N to NE in the extreme north-west. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : N to NE 15 to 25, but cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 55 to 65 at times in the extreme south-west (Also refer to additional information of the TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in the extreme south-west. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m in the south-west reaching 7.0 to 8.0m at times and in places in the extreme south-west, with N to NE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : NW to N 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north-west spreading to the south-east by mid-period. It will become SW to W 15 to 25 in the west from mid-period spreading to the east by the end of the period while reaching 30 to 40 in the north-west. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, becoming over the southern parts towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the north-west west, with SW to W swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/13 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING NIL PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/13 AT 1200UTC - Low 999 near 44S/40E, rather quickly moving eastward. Warm front WF 42S/35E, 45S/28E. Cold front CF 45S/28E, 43S/28E, 40S/20E, 40S/15E. - High 1030 over AMS, stationary. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/13 at 1800UTC to 26/02/14 at 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) Scattered showers. WIND: Northerly 4/5 locally 6 over far south-western. SEA : slight to moderate, locally rough over far south-western. VIS : good. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) WIND: anticlockwise 3/5. SEA : moderate. VIS : good. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) Rain, showers and squalls (WF, CF). WIND: Northerly 4/6 increasing NW 6/7 at end. SEA : moderate to rough. SW swell 3 to 4 m over southern. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) Scattered rain. WIND: Westerly 3/5. SEA : moderate to rough. W swell 2 to 3 m. VIS : poor in precipitation.