Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-15 10:12:53 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 150630 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 036/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 982 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 39.4 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 105 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/16 AT 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 150830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 15TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 151000 TO 161000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/15 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 39.4 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 100 64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 40.5 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 105 SE: 85 SW: 135 NW: 105 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 60 SW: 85 NW: 60 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 40 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 41.1 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 60 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30 30H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.6 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 270 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95 42H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 42.8 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 100 54H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 43.4 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120 66H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 43.0 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110 78H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 42.1 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SW: 240 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: E to NE 35 in the west towards mid-period, spreading to the north- west towards the end of the period. 2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 55 to 65 in the north, but SE to E 35 to 40 in the north-west. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). 3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 55 to 65 in the south. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1027 hPa 35s28e Low 957 hPa 55s02w Low 982 hPa 26.5s39.4e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). 1. Cold Front: 34s22w 40s10w 45s02w 50s04e into 55s02w AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north- east at first. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but variable 05 in the extreme south. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but W to NW 05 to 15 in the extreme south-east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, with S to SE swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise NW 10 to 20, but S to SE 10 to 20 in the south-west, spreading over the eastern parts towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in a band of showers and rain from the south into west, drifting to the south-east and north-west towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west towards mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the east, but NW 10 to 20 in the south-west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period, while becoming S to SE 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and north-east, with S to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the central parts, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the north-east, but E to NE 15 to 25 in the western half, reaching 30 to 35 in the west towards mid-period, spreading to the north-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers over the north-eastern parts until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 4.0 to 6.0m in the central parts, drifting to the northern parts towards mid-period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 55 to 65 in the north, otherwise SE to E 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 40 in the north-west, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the north-east, reaching 25 to 30 in the extreme south-west towards the end of the period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers over the central parts, but poor to very poor in heavy thundershowers over the north-western parts. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m in the western half, but 6.0 to 8.0m in the north with S to SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : N to NE 10 to 20, but cyclonic 55 to 65 in the south. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in heavy thundershowers in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern parts, reaching 6.0 to 8.0m in the extreme south, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the extreme north-east at first, otherwise W to NW 20 to 30. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the southern half until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 5.5m in the north-west at first, with SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/02/15 AT 0400UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING GALE FORCE 8 OVER SOUTHERN KER AT FIRST. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/02/15 AT 0000UTC - LOW 978 HPA NEAR 58S/58E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, MOVING EASTWARD. - HIGH 1031 HPA NEAR 36S/76E, ALMOST STATIONARY. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/02/15 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/02/16 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS, LOCALLY THUNDERSTORMS BY SOUTHWESTERN AT FIRST. WIND: N 4/5, SETTLING TO NORTH-WESTERLY 4/5 LOCALLY 6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BACKING LATER OVER FAR SOUTH-WEST, SOUTHERLY 4/5 LOCALLY 6. SEA : MODERATE, BUT ROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY SWELL 2/3M IN THE WEST. VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 WITH EASTERLY 5 IN FAR NORTH ZONE AND LATER NW 5/6 IN FAR SOUTHWEST. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS LOCALLY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND: NW 6/7 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BACKING WESTERLY 5/6, THEN W 5/6 LOCALLY 7 BEHIND AT END. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. WESTERLY 2/4 M. VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS. WIND: NW 5 TO 7 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPORARILY 8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS IN THE SOUTH AT FIRST. DECREASING W 4/5 IN THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN THE SOUTH. WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.