Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2025-10-23 23:58:02 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 231837 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/10/2025 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/10/2025 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CHENGE) 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 57.8 E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2025/10/24 AT 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM 24H, VALID 2025/10/24 AT 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 231807 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/10/2025 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/10/2025 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CHENGE) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 58.5 E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2025/10/24 AT 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 65 NM 34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM 24H, VALID 2025/10/24 AT 12 UTC: 8.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 231730 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 23RD OF OCTOBER 2025 AT 17:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 232200 TO 242200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/4/20252026 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CHENGE) 2.A POSITION 2025/10/23 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 59.0 E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2025/10/23 18 UTC: 9.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0 24H: 2025/10/24 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100 36H: 2025/10/24 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120 48H: 2025/10/25 06 UTC: 8.0 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 325 NW: 140 60H: 2025/10/25 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 0 72H: 2025/10/26 06 UTC: 7.2 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 0 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: N to NW 30 to 35 in the south-east at first. 2. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 25 to 35 reaching 40 in the east and south towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1039 hPa 36s27w High 1024 hPa 33s49e. Low 984 51s29e Low 998 hPa 10s58e 1. Cold Front: 35s15e 39s22e 45s29e 47s33e into 51s29e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SE 10 to 15 but SW 10 in the east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 15 to 25. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the southern half, with S to SE swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south in the first half of the period. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SW 15 to 25 in the south at first otherwise S to SE 10 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south drifting to the north-east by end of period. SEA STATE: 3.0m reaching 4.0m in the extreme south from mid-period, with S to SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west. VIS : Good but moderate in showers and rain in the north, spreading over the southern half from mid period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m except in the north-east but reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west from the second half of the period, with SW to S swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : W to SW 10 to 20 in the west reaching 25 to 30 at first, otherwise N to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the south-east at first moderating to 10 by the end of the period. It will become NE 10 to 20 in the north-west by the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west from the second half of the period. SEA STATE: 3.5m in the south, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west in the first half of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 but S to SW 15 to 25 in the extreme south- west in the first half of the period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east at first, with SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SW 10 to 20 becoming variable 05 to 10 from the second half of the period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at first, with SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE to E 15 to 25 but NE 10 to 15 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the north, with SE swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 25 to 35 reaching 40 in the east and south Towards mid-period, becoming SW 10 to 20 in the west by mid period spreading to the east by end of period. VIS : Good, but poor in rain and showers in the first half of the period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m reaching 5.5 to 6.5m in the east from mid-period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 25/10/23 AT 1700UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE FORCE 8 OVER WAM, AMS, AND KER. - LOCALLY STRONG GALE FORCE 9 OVER KER AT THE END. - STORM OVER CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 25/10/23 AT 1200UTC - HIGH 1024 HPA NEAR 32S/50E EXPECTED TO BE 1025 HPA 31S/60E WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST. - COLD FRONT (CF) AXIS 30S/64E, 41S/79E, LEAVING THE AREA SOON VIA THE EAST - LOW 984 HPA DEEPENING NEAR 50S/31E WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ( CG) EXPECTED 966 HPA NEAR 50S/63E AT THE END. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 25/10/23 AT 1800UTC TO 25/10/24 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AT END (CG). WIND : NORTHERN HALF: ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4. SOUTHERN HALF: WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4/5, INCREASING SOON WEST TO NORTHWEST 5/6, THEN 6/7, LATER REACHING 8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. SOUTHWEST SWELL 3/5M ABATING THEN ARRIVAL OF A WEST SWELL 3/4M OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREA. VISI : POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CF ZONE. WIND : SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5/6, LOCALLY 7 IN FAR SOUTHEAST, BECOMING ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 OVER THE NORTH-EAST HALF DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING TO NORTH-WEST 6/7 OVER THE SOUTH-WEST HALF, REACHING 8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS IN THE FAR SOUTH-WEST AT THE END. BUT NORTHWEST 4/5 AHEAD CF FRONT OVER NORTHEAST AT FIRST. SEA : STRONG TO VERY STRONG. SOUTHWEST SWELL 3/5M. VIS : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS, THEN RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH CG, SHOWERS OR SQUALLS BEHIND (SNOW IN THE SOUTH). WIND : WESTERLY 5/6, INCREASING SOON AHEAD OF CG NORTHWEST 6/7 THEN 7/8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS, LOCALLY REACHING 9, BACKING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 8/9 LOCALLY 10 BEHIND. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. SOUTHWEST SWELL 3/5M ABATING, THEN LATER NORTHWEST SWELL 3/5M. VISI : VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS OR SQUALLS (SNOW IN THE SOUTH) THEN RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS AT END (CG). WIND : SOUTHWEST 6/7 LOCALLY 8, SETTLING LATER WITH CG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 6/7, THEN 7/8 LOCALLY 9 AT END OVER WESTERN HALF. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY HIGH OVER THE EAST AT THE START AND OVER THE WEST AT THE END. WEST SWELL 3/5M ABATING. VISI : POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.=