Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-18 07:40:59 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 180613 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 048/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 41.5 E (THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 135 NM 34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/19 AT 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 165 NM 34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 65 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 180022 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 047/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.6 E (THIRTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 270 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 145 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 235 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/18 AT 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 145 NM 34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/19 AT 00 UTC: 38.5 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 145 NM 34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 85 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 171600 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 17TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 16:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 172200 TO 182200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 51/10/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 42.5 E THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 81 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 620 SW: 520 NW: 390 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 24H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 455 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 185 36H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 150 48H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 405 SW: 400 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 175 60H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 43.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 595 SW: 415 NW: 530 34 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 280 72H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 630 SE: 655 SW: 480 NW: 595 34 KT NE: 445 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 325 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 185 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the east (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI Above. 2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the south-central parts at first. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1027 hPa 39s07W, 1026 hPa 39s55e Low 1009 34s24e Low 986 hPa 30.3 S / 42.5 E (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain in the north-west and south-east. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south-west, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : SW to S 15 to 25 in the south-west spreading to the central parts towards the end of the period, but SE to E 10 to in the north-west otherwise variable 05 to 10. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west until mid-period, becoming moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-central from mid-period spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the north-east, but variable 05 to 10 in the south- west and in the north-west towards the end of the period, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south-east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m subsiding in the west from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE to E 20 to 30 in the south-west, but NE to N 15 to 25 in the north-west reaching 30 in the extreme east, otherwise cyclonic 35 to 45 (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI Above). VIS : Good, becoming moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east and in places in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west and north-east, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in places in the north-east but 7.5 to 8.5 in places in the central east spreading to the south from mid-period, with SE swell in the west, otherwise NE to E. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 40 to 50 in the south-central parts at first, but NE to N 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise variable 05 to 10 (Also see formation about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI Above). VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places in the east. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m except in the east, reaching 5.5 to 7.5m in the south- central at first, with E to SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in the central parts at first, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south at first, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, but SW 10 to 20 in the south-west spreading to the south-east from mid-period. It will become SE to E 05 to 15 in the north-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and rain in the south-west drifting to the south-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/17 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING - Gale over KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/17 AT 1200UTC - Severe tropical storm 10 (GEZANI) 986 near 30.3S/42.5E, steadily moving south-south-eastwards, expected moderate tropical storm near 35.8S/41.3E the 18 at 12 UTC. - High 1027 near 39S/58E, steadily moving eastward. - Fresh to strong Westerly airflow over far southern areas. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/17 at 1800UTC to 26/02/18 at 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) Scattered showers over northern. Showers and squalls over far western at end. WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 at times 5, but North-Easterly 4/5 at times 6 with gusts over far western. SEA : moderate to rough. VIS : moderate in precipitation, but very poor over far western at end. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) Scattered showers over northern. WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over southern at times 5, but Easterly 3/4 over northern. SEA : moderate. VIS : moderate in precipitation. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) Scattered showers. WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over northern at times 5, but Westerly 5/6 over southern at times 7 with gusts. SEA : moderate or rough, locally very rough over far southern by SW swell 3 to 5m. VIS : moderate in precipitation. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) Scattered showers. WIND: anticlockwise 3/4 over far northern at times 5. Elsewhere, Westerly 5/6 at times 7, but 8 at first over far south-eastern. Gusts. SEA : rough to very rough, but moderate over far northern and temporarily high over far south-eastern. SW swell, soon increasing 3 to 4m. VIS : moderate in precipitation.