Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-10 05:48:21 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO22 FMEE 100007 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 10/02/2026 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.0 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A RADIUS OF 130 NM FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 5 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/10 AT 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM 34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/11 AT 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM 34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM 48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 091600 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 09TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 16:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 092200 TO 102200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI): ====================================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20252026 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/09 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 54.8 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 24H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 48H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 60H: 2026/02/11 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2026/02/12 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 120H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50 to 60 over the central parts drifting to the west by mid-period (Also see information about the moderate tropical storm 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1023 hPa 31s03w, High 1023 hPa 39s36e Low (GEZANI) 992 hPa 18s53s AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20, but anticyclonic 05 to 10 in the extreme south. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the extreme south-east. VIS : Good, but poor in mist in the extreme south-east at first. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the extreme north, but in the south-west towards the end of the period, otherwise NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards mid-period and spreading to the south-east by the mid- period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south and east but clearing from the west from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the southern half, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the north-east, but NW 10 to 20 in the south west spreading to the south-east by mid-period, otherwise variable 05 to 10. VIS : Good, but poor in mist in the extreme north-east until mid-period. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : E to NE 10 to 20 in the north-west, otherwise anticyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west drifting to the central north by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the eastern half reaching 4.0m in the south-east, with SW to S swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : E to NE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the extreme central north. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m, with S swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 in the extreme south-east, otherwise variable 05 to 10. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places over the northern and central parts. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N to NE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, but cyclonic 35 to 45 reaching 50 to 60 over the central parts drifting to the west by mid-period (Also see information about the moderate tropical storm 10 GEZANI above). Otherwise, E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good in the extreme north but moderate in the south, otherwise poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the northern half, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the central east, drifting to the west by mid-period, with E to SE. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 20 to 30, moderating to 10 to 20 from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west drifting to the south-east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 4.0 to 6.0m reaching 7.0 to 8.0m in the south-east at first, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/09 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - STRONG GALE FORCE 9 OVER SOUTHERN CRO AREA. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/09 AT 1200UTC - LOW 950 HPA NEAR 56S/53E WITH COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AND AXIS 40S/64E, 47S/69E, 56S/69E, 61S/64E MOVING EASTWARD 15/20KT. - HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 39S/37E MOVING EASTWARD. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/09 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/10 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND: SOUTHWESTERLY 3/4 BECOMING ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 4 BY WESTERN AREA. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH BECOMING VERY ROUGH BY SOUTHERN AREA. SW SWELL 3 TO 4M. VISI: GOOD. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER EASTERN AREA THEN SCATTERED AREA. WIND: NW 3/4, LOCALLY 5 AHEAD CF BACKING S 3/4 LOCALLY 5 BEHIND CF. SEA : MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH BY SOUTH-WESTERN AREA AT END. SW SWELL 2 TO 3 METERS. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS. WIND: WESTERLY 6/7 OVER NORTHERN AREA REACHING 8 LOCALLY 9 WITH STRONG GUSTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA. SEA : BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. SW SWELL 5 TO 7 METERS. VISI: POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER EASTERN AREA THEN SCATTERED AREA. WIND: NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY 5/6 AHEAD THE FRONT BACKING WESTERLY 5/6 BEHIND REACHING 7 IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREA. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH BY WESTERN AREA. ARRIVAL OF A SW SWELL 4 TO 6 M BY WESTERN AREA AT END. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.