Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-14 20:52:16 ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 141805 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/02/2026 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 963 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 37.4 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER,. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 105 NM 34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM 64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 100 NM 34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM 48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ============================ WTIO24 FMEE 141218 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/02/2026 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 960 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 36.6 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 230 NM 34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 120 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM 64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM 24H, VALID 2026/02/15 AT 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 175 NM 34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM 48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.= ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 141700 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 14TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 142200 TO 152200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/14 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 36.6 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 38.5 E, WIND MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 255 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 50 SW: 115 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 25 NW: 20 24H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.7 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 185 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 50 SW: 85 NW: 90 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30 30H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.5 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 305 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 42H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.1 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35 54H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.3 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35 66H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.0 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 380 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRADES: S to SE 35 in the south-east at first. 2. CAPE WEST: S to SE 35 in the east. 3. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the north-west until towards the end of the period, where and when it will become S to SE 35 to 40. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). 4. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the extreme south-west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1021 hPa 28s20w, High 1027 hPa 38s10e Low 990 hPa 53s48e Low 960 hPa 25.7s36.6e (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI). 1. Cold Front: 31s34e 35s39e 40s43e 45s45e into 53s48e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north- east at times. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15, but variable 05 in the extreme south. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 35 in the south-east at first, but W to NW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and south-east, with S to SE swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east until mid-period, otherwise NW 10 to 20. It will become SW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading over the central parts towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west, spreading to the south-east and central parts towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west, spreading to the south from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 35 in the east, but NW 15 to 25 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and north-east, with S to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SW 15 to 25 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the north, but anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the west. It will become E to NE 15 to 25 in the north-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in showers and thundershowers over the eastern parts. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 4.0 to 6.0m in the central parts, drifting to the north-eastern parts towards the end of the period, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 60 to 80 in the north-west until towards the end of the period, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20 but S to SE 20 to 30 in the west, reaching 35 to 40 in the north-west towards the end of the period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers but poor to very poor in heavy thundershowers over the north-western parts. SEA STATE: 6.0 to 8.0m in the north-west, but 4.0 to 5.0m in the west, with S to SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : N to NE 15 to 25, but cyclonic 60 to 80 in the extreme south- west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period. (Also see Information about Tropical Cyclone 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, but very poor in heavy thundershowers in the south-west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern parts, reaching 6.0 to 8.0m in the south-west, drifting to the south towards the end of the period, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : SW 20 to 30, but W to NW 20 to 30 in the west, spreading to the east towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the north-east at first, but in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the north-west at first, with SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/14 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING LOCALLY, GALE FORCE 8 OVER SOUTH CRO AT FIRST. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/14 AT 1200UTC - LOW 990 HPA NEAR 51S/47E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD - HIGH 030 HPA NEAR 37S/76E, VIRTUALLY STATIONARY. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/14 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/15 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS, LOCALLY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND: NORTHERLY 4/5, SETTLING TO NORTH-WESTERLY 4/5 LOCALLY 6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BACKING OVER FAR SOUTH-WEST, SOUTHERLY 4/5 LOCALLY 6. SEA : MODERATE, BUT ROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY SWELL 2/3M IN THE WEST. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR DURING PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 WITH EASTERLY 5 IN FAR NORTH ZONE AND LATER NORTHWESTERLY 5 IN FAR SOUTHWEST SEA : MODERATE. VISI: GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS LOCALLY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND: NORTH-WEST 6/7 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, REACHING 8 LOCALLY AT THE START, BACKING WESTERLY 6/7, THEN SOUTH-WEST 4/5 BEHIND. THEN INCREASING WEST TO NORTH-WEST 5/6 OVER THE SOUTH-WEST AT THE END. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. NORTH-WESTERLY SWELL 3/5M WITH THE FRONT. VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. WIND: NORTH-WESTERLY 3/5 AT FIRST, INCREASING SOON FROM WEST WITH THE FRONT NORTH-WESTERLY 4 TO 7 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VIOLENT GUSTS IN THE SOUTH. DECREASING WEST 4/5 IN THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN THE SOUTH. WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M ABATING THEN NORTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M IN THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END. VISI: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.