Bulletinset for METAREA 7 Edition date (UTC): 2026-02-18 22:21:53 ============================ HIGH SEAS FORECAST ============================ FQZA31 FAPR 181630 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 18TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 16:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 182200 TO 192200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 55/10/20252026 1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.6 S / 41.6 E (THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 435 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150 24H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 535 SW: 175 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 140 NW: 165 36H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 44.6 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 665 SE: 555 SW: 325 NW: 470 34 KT NE: 390 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 270 48H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 47.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 785 SE: 720 SW: 335 NW: 555 34 KT NE: 465 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 335 48 KT NE: 165 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100 60H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 50.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 870 SE: 610 SW: 415 NW: 630 34 KT NE: 510 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 380 48 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 140 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRISTAN: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the central east towards the end of the period. 2. CAPE WEST: S to SE 35 in the south-west in the second half of the period. 3. CAPE EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the south-east. 4. MARION FORTIES EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the north-east towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1023 hPa 42s07e Low 1012 hPa 43s09w, Low 1008 hPa 35s23e Low 990 hPa 35.6s 41.6e (POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI). 1. Cold front: 35s17w 40s08w into 43s09w. AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW 05 to 10 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 10. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : SW to S 10 to 20 in the south until mid-period, otherwise SE to S 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south from mid-period becoming good in the south-east. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : NW 05 to 15 in the south-west otherwise S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : N to NE 05 to 15 in the east at first, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25, becoming cyclonic 20 to 30 in the central east from mid-period reaching 35 to 45 towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the eastern parts. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west spreading over the eastern parts from mid-period while reaching 4.5m, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-west at first becoming N to NE 10 to 20 towards mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 35 in the south-west in the second half of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west towards mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east, with SW swell. 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west towards the end of the period, with SE swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise SW 10 to 20, but cyclonic 30 to 40 in the south-east. (Also see information about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good, but moderate in the showers and rain in the west and poor to very poor in thundershowers in the east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme west, with SW swell. 4.0 to 6.0m in the east reaching 7.0m in the first half of the period moderating to 3.0m in the north-east from mid-period, with cyclonic swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 in the east and extreme-west, otherwise NW to W 10 to 20 becoming SW to S 05 to 15 in the central parts from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10 until mid-period, otherwise SE to S 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north-east at times. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain at times. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north, becoming cyclonic 30 to 40 in the north-east towards mid-period. (Also see information about POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the northern half, but poor to very poor in the north-east from mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south until mid-period, with SW swell. 4.5 to 5.5m in the north-east, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the north-east towards mid-period, with NE swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/18 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE TO STRONG GALE OVER SOUTHEAST KER. -GALE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTH-WEST WAM AND NORTH-WEST CRO AT END. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/18 AT 1200UTC - POST-TROPICAL LOW 10 (GENAZI) 990 HPA NEAR 35.6E/41.6E, ASSOCIATED SQUALLY WEATHER. MOVING SOUTHWARD 12KT. EXPECT NEAR 41S/46E AT 12:00 UTC THE 19/02. - HIGH1025 HPA NEAR 38S/65E, WITH RIDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST, EXPECTED 1025 HPA NEAR 36S/73E AT THE END. - COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF KER. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/18 AT 1800UTC TO 26/02/19 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE FAR WEST AT THE END. WIND : NORTH HALF, EASTERLY TO NORTH-EASTERLY 3/4, INCREASING SOON NORTHERLY 4/5 OVER THE WEST. SOUTH HALF, SETTLING NORTHERLY 5/6 WITH GUSTS IN THE WEST AND NORTHERLY 3/4 IN THE EAST, REACHING 7/8 WITH GUSTS IN THE FAR SOUTH-WEST AT END ON THE EDGE OF THE DEPRESSION. SEA : MODERATE, BUT ROUGH TO VERY STRONG IN THE SOUTH-WEST. VISI : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4.. SEA : MODERATE LOCALLY ROUGH OVER SOUTH-EAST. SOUTH-WEST SELL 2/3M. VISI : GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND : VARIABLE ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4, AT TIME 5, BUT WESTERLY 6/7 IN THE SOUTH-EAST. INCREASING DURING THE DAY NORTHERLY 5/6 IN THE NORTH-WEST, BECOMING CLOCKWISE 7/8 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS AT THE END IN THE NORTH-WEST WITH THE POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SEA : MODERATE TO VERY ROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AT THE END IN THE NORTH-WEST WITH THE DEPRESSION. SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2/4M. VISI : VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. WIND : WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY 5/6 IN THE NORTH AND 6/7 IN THE SOUTH, REACHING 8 LOCALLY 9 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS IN THE SOUTH-EAST, BECOMING LATER VARIABLE 2/4 OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN HALF. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, BUT BECOMING HIGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST. SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2M TO 5M FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VISI : MODERATE IN PRECIPITATION.=