FQAU23 AMMC 172000

IDY10220

SECURITE



High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10

12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E



Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 17 January 2025



Part 1 Warnings

Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone

Melbourne Gale Warning 4.



Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC

Trough [1] 14S125E to tropical low [1] (11U) 995hPa near 19S120E. Forecast

trough 15S124E 20S118E to 11U 990hPa near 19S116E at 190000UTC.



Cold front [1] 37S125E 50S125E. Forecast cold front 41S129E 50S130E at

180000UTC, and east of area thereafter.



Cold front [2] 44S097E 47S098E to low [2] 979hPa near 49S096E to warm front

47S100E 43S099E. Forecast cold front [2] 43S110E 49S115E to low [2] 976hPa near

50S113E to warm front 50S118E at 181200UTC, then warm front and low [2] south

of area thereafter and just cold front [2] 44S116E 50S124E 50S124E at 190000UTC.



Trough [2] 41S080E 42S089E 42S098E. Forecast trough 35S080E 42S090E 45S099E at

190000UTC.



Part 3 Forecast

Refer to latest warnings.



Within 420nm of 11U, outside warning areas:

Clockwise winds 20/33 knots. Rough seas. Low to moderate swell



East of line 20S106E 28S107E 34S114E: Southeasterly quarter winds 20/30 knots.

Rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



South of line 31S080E 46S129E, outside warning areas:

Westerly quarter winds shifting northerly quarter east of cold front [1] and

within 180nm east of warm front, turning northwesterly quarter within 360nm

east of cold front [2] and east of trough [2], and turning clockwise within

240nm of low [2]. Wind speeds 20/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate

to heavy swell.



Remainder:

Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell,

increasing to moderate to heavy south of line 26S088E 23S097E 29S115E 43S129E.



Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 180nm of

fronts, troughs and low [2], and within 240nm of 11U. Heavy at times within

180nm of 11U and trough [1]. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.



Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger

than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum

waves can be twice the forecast height.



WEATHER MELBOURNE



The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Saturday.