FQAU23 AMMC 212007

IDY10220

SECURITE



Updated High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10

12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E



Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 21 February 2025



Part 1 Warnings

Melbourne Gale Warning 1.

Melbourne Gale Warning 3.



Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC

Tropical low (21U) 1006hPa near 15.2S114.2E. Forecast tropical low (21U)

1004hPa near 16.0S108.4E at 230000UTC with a moderate chance of development

into a tropical cyclone increasing to high near the end of the forecast period.

Refer to latest warning and forecast

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/ for more information.



Trough [1] 39S121E 43S122E to low 985hPa near 46S122E to 50S124E. Forecast just

low 982hPa near 46S127E at 220900UTC, then weakening thereafter.



Cold front 43S085E 50S096E. Forecast 48S107E 50S111E at 221200UTC, then south

of the area thereafter.



Trough [2] 32S077E to low 1011hPa near 38S079E to 42S083E. Forecast just trough

30S084E 42S094E 47S110E at 230000UTC.



Part 3 Forecast

Refer to latest warnings.



South of line 34S080E 35S090E 45S110E 38S114E 33S129E, outside warning areas:

Northwesterly quarter winds, shifting southwesterly quarter west of cold front

and trough [2], and turning clockwise within 540nm of low. Wind speeds 20/33

knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.



Within 60nm of tropical low (21U) extending to within 180nm at 230000UTC,

outside warning area:

Clockwise winds 20/33 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



Within 300nm east of line 15S103E 33S115E:

Southerly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



Remainder:

Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell,

increasing to moderate to heavy east of line 33S112E 43S106E.



Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 240nm of

fronts, trough and within 420nm of lows. Heavy at times within 90nm of tropical

low in western semicircle. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.



Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger

than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum

waves can be twice the forecast height.



WEATHER MELBOURNE



The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Saturday.