FQAU23 AMMC 220800

IDY10220

SECURITE



High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10

12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E



Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 22 December 2025



Part 1 Warnings

Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.



Gale Warning issued by TCWC Melbourne for Tropical Low 03U.



Part 2 Situation at 220600 UTC

Tropical Low (03U) 998hPa near 12.6S102.0E. Forecast developing into tropical

cyclone by 221800UTC, then tropical cyclone 985hPa near 12.2S099.8E at

231200UTC.



Cold front near 48S110E 50S112E. Forecast cold front exiting area to east near

45S123E 47S129E 50S132E at 222100UTC.



Forecast trough entering area from west near 43S080E 47S087E at 221200UTC, then

near 34S080E 48S094E 50S100E at 231200UTC.



Part 3 Forecast

Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather

system.



Within 180nm of Tropical Low 03U, outside of warning area:

Clockwise winds around tropical low/cyclone. Wind speeds 20/33 knots. Rough to

very rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



East of line 25S105E 35S112E:

Southeasterly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



South of line 36S080E 50S100E 40S129E, outside warning areas:

Westerly quarter winds, shifting northwesterly quarter within 300nm east of

cold front and within 180nm north of trough. Wind speeds 20/33 knots. Rough to

very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.



Remainder:

Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell,

increasing to moderate to heavy east of line 35S112E 45S114E.



Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 180nm of

fronts and within 240nm of lows. Heavy at times within 120nm of tropical

low/cyclone. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.



Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger

than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum

waves can be twice the forecast height.



WEATHER MELBOURNE



The next routine forecast will be issued at 20:00 UTC Monday.