FQAU23 AMMC 052118

IDY10220

SECURITE



Updated High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10

12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E



Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 5 February 2026



Part 1 Warnings

Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.



Gale Warning issued d by TCWC Melbourne for Tropical Low (21U).



Part 2 Situation at 051800 UTC

Trough 42S102E to low [1] 1006hPa near 48S114E , forecast 39S117E to low

1014hPa near 45S128E 070000UTC.



Warm front forecast to enter area from the west near 42S082E 43S087E at

060600UTC, then 46S096E 47S102E at 070000UTC.



Cold front forecast to enter area from the west 38S079E to low [2] 1015hPa near

42S082E at 060600UTC, then 40S089E to low [2] 1005hPa near 46S096E at 070000UTC.



Tropical Low (21U) 1000hPa entering region from east near 18S121E at 061200UTC,

then Tropical low (21U) 997hPa near 19S119E at 070000UTC.



Part 3 Forecast

Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather

system.



East of line 21S100E 29S101E 35S114E:

Southeasterly quarter winds. Wind speeds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Low to

moderate swell.



Within 120nm east of cold front:

Northwesterly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Low to

moderate swell.



Within 120nm of Tropical Low (21U), outside warning area:

Clockwise quarter winds 20/33 knots developing from 061200UTC. Rough seas. Low

swell.



Remainder:

Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.



Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly within 240nm of

fronts/trough, north of line 15S090E 14S094E, and east of line 12S117E 20S117E.

Heavy at times within 60nm of fronts and south of line 15S119E 15S124E.

Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.



Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger

than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum

waves can be twice the forecast height.



WEATHER MELBOURNE



The next routine forecast will be issued at 08:00 UTC Friday.