FQZA30 FAPR 121300 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR COASTAL WATERS UP TO 50 NAUTICAL MILES SEAWARD. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 12TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:00 UTC. FORECAST VALID FROM 122200 TO 132200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METRES. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 2M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. THESE ESTIMATES OF WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ENHANCING EFFECTS OF THE AGULHAS CURRENT OFF THE SOUTH AFRICAN EAST COAST. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 39.9 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 70 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65 120H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.5- ALERTS: ======= WARNINGS: --------- 1. CYCLONIC WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS REACHING 55 TO 65 AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH- WEST BY THE MID-PERIOD. (REFER TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 'GEZANI'). 2. VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4.0 TO 6.0M IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LAMBERT'S BAY AND CAPE POINT AT FIRST AND BETWEEN BETTY'S BAY AND CAPE AGULHAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 3. HIGH SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 6.0 TO 8.0M IS EXPECTED IN PLACES IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 4. A GALE FORCE SE WIND OF 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN FISCHERSBRUNN AND ORANGE RIVER FROM MID-PERIOD. 5. MODERATE TO POOR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IS EXPECTED TIMES BETWEEN GQEBERHA AND CAPE ST LUCIA, AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BUT POOR TO VERY POOR IN THE SOUTH-WEST BY MID-PERIOD. 6. MODERATE VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN CAPE AGULHAS AND GQEBERHA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WATCH: ------ NIL. SEVERE WEATHER ADVISORIES: -------------------------- NIL. ABNORMAL WAVE CONDITIONS: ------------------------- NIL. AREA FORECAST: -------------- CUNENE RIVER TO WALVIS BAY: WIND : W TO SW 05 TO 15. VIS : GOOD. SEA STATE: 2.0 TO 3.0M, WITH S SWELL. WALVIS BAY TO ORANGE RIVER: WIND : VARIABLE 05 NORTH OF FISCHERSBRUNN UNTIL MID-PERIOD, OTHERWISE S TO SE 15 TO 25 REACHING 30 TO 35 SOUTH OF FISCHERSBRUNN FROM MID-PERIOD. VIS : GOOD. SEA STATE: 2.0 TO 3.0M BETWEEN HOLSATIA AND LUDERITZ AT TIMES FROM MID-PERIOD, WITH S SWELL. ORANGE RIVER TO CAPE AGULHAS: WIND : S TO SE 10 TO 20 REACHING 25 IN PLACES, BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 SOUTH OF LAMBERT'S BAY FROM LATE MORNING. VIS : GOOD. SEA STATE: 2.5 TO 3.5M REACHING 4.0M BETWEEN LAMBERT'S BAY AND CAPE POINT AT FIRST AND SOUTH OF BETTY'S BAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH S TO SW SWELL. CAPE AGULHAS TO EAST LONDON: WIND : E TO SE 05 TO 15, BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 WEST OF PLETTENBERG BAY BY MID-PERIOD SPREADING TO EAST LONDON TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. VIS : GOOD, BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS EAST OF GQEBERHA AND IN SHOWERS AND RAIN WEST OF GQEBERHA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEA STATE: 2.5 TO 3.5M, WITH SW SWELL. EAST LONDON TO MAPUTO: WIND : VARIABLE 05 IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE NE TO E 10 TO 20 REACHING 25 TO 30 AT TIMES, BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 SOUTH OF PORT SHEPSTONE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. VIS : GOOD, BUT MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS SOUTH OF CAPE ST LUCIA AT TIMES. SEA STATE: 2.0 TO 2.5M SOUTH OF COFFEE BAY SPREADING TO MARGATE BY MID-PERIOD, WITH SW SWELL. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : E TO SE 05 TO 15 IN THE SOUTH UNTIL MID-PERIOD, BUT CYCLONIC 35 TO 45 REACHING 55 TO 65 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH-WEST ((REFER TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 'GEZANI'), OTHERWISE N TO NE 10 TO 20. VIS : MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN PLACES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS, BUT POOR TO VERY POOR IN THE SOUTH- WEST, OTHERWISE GOOD. SEA STATE: 4.0 TO 6.0M IN THE SOUTH-WEST REACHING 7.0 TO 8.0M AT TIMES AND IN PLACES IN THE SOUTH-WEST, WITH NE SWELL. WE RESPECT YOUR PRIVACY AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS EMAIL MAY CONTAIN PERSONALLY IDENTIFIABLE INFORMATION. THE EMAIL MAY BELONG TO YOU, OTHERS, AND OR TO YOUR ORGANIZATION, AND WHICH WE WILL PROCESS, WHICH PROCESSING WILL BE DONE IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR PRIVACY NOTICE ON OUR WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.WEATHERSA.CO.ZA/HOME/PRIVACYNOTICE=