FQZA30 FAPR 160800 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR COASTAL WATERS UP TO 50 NAUTICAL MILES SEAWARD. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 16TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:00 UTC. FORECAST VALID FROM 161000 to 171000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METRES. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 2M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. THESE ESTIMATES OF WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ENHANCING EFFECTS OF THE AGULHAS CURRENT OFF THE SOUTH AFRICAN EAST COAST. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 46/10/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.9 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 490 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 490 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55 24H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 470 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 36H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 470 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 48H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 120 60H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140 72H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 445 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 155 ALERTS: ======= WARNINGS: --------- 1. Cyclonic 40 to 60 knots in the south and south-east of the Mozambique Channel until tomorrow morning. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). 2. Very rough seas with wave height of 4.0 to 6.0m are expected in the south of the Mozambique Channel until tomorrow morning. 3. A Gale force E to NE wind of 35 knots is expected between Cape St Francis and East London until tomorrow morning. 4. Very poor visibility in fog is expected between Fischersbrunn and Cape Agulhas from this evening. 5. Moderate visibility in showers and thundershowers is expected in places over the Mozambique Channel, but poor in heavy thundershowers in the south-east at first. 6. Moderate visibility in showers and rain is expected in places between Richards Bay and Maputo until mid-period. WATCH: ------ Nil. SEVERE WEATHER ADVISORIES: -------------------------- Nil. ABNORMAL WAVE CONDITIONS: ------------------------- Nil. AREA FORECAST: -------------- CUNENE RIVER TO WALVIS BAY: WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 north of Mowe Bay. It will become variable 05 to 10 south of Henties Bay tomorrow morning. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 2.0 to 2.5m, with S to SW swell. WALVIS BAY TO ORANGE RIVER: WIND : W to NW 05 to 15, becoming variable 05 to 10 from mid-period. VIS : Good, becoming very poor in fog south of Fischersbrunn from the evening. SEA STATE: 2.0m until mid-period, with S to SW swell. ORANGE RIVER TO CAPE AGULHAS: WIND : E 10 to 20 south of Cape Point at first, otherwise W to NW 05 to 15 but variable 05 to 10 between Cape Columbine and Cape Point, spreading northwards to Orange River from this evening. VIS : Good, becoming very poor in fog from this evening. SEA STATE: 2.0m reaching 2.5m south of Cape Point, with S to SW swell. CAPE AGULHAS TO EAST LONDON: WIND : E to NE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 east of St Francis until tomorrow morning, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 west of Still Bay from mid-period, spreading to St Francis towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 2.0 to 3.0m, with SW swell. EAST LONDON TO MAPUTO: WIND : E to SE 15 to 25 north of Port Edward, otherwise E to NE 15 to 25, reaching 30 south of Coffee Bay from afternoon and spreading to Durban tomorrow morning. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places between Richards Bay and Maputo until mid-period. SEA STATE: 2.0 to 3.0m, reaching 4.0m north of Cape St Lucia overnight, with S to SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, but cyclonic 40 to 60 in the south and south-east until tomorrow morning, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places, but poor in heavy thundershowers in the south-east at first. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the central and southern parts, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south until tomorrow morning, with S to SW swell.