FQZA31 FAPR 201630 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 20TH OF NOVEMBER 2024 AT 16:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 202200 TO 212200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/3/20242025 1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI) 2.A POSITION 2024/11/20 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 61.0 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY-ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 58.2 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0 24H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 56.2 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0 36H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.8 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0 48H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 53.8 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 0 60H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 52.8 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 0 72H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.1 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 0 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRISTAN: NW 35 in the south and central parts, drifting to the east by mid-period, but S to SW 35 to 40 in the south-west, spreading to the south-east towards end of period, while moderating from the west. 2. CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 in the south-west. 3. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the southern half at first. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1023 hPa 32s00e, High 1022 hPa 36s54e Low 998 hPa 39s16w 1. Cold Front: 30s27w 34s20w into 39s16w AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 but SW to W 05 to 10 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east at times. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the south-west, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but NE 05 to 10 in the west and south-east at first. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the extreme east at times, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east but NE 05 to 10 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at first, with S swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to NE 05 to 15 in the north-east at first, otherwise NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the south and central parts, drifting to the east by mid-period, but S to SW 30 to 40 in the south-west, spreading to the south-east towards end of period, while moderating to 10 to 20 from the west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south and north-west, spreading to the north and south-east towards end of period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the southern half, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-west, drifting to the south-east by mid-period, with W to SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 in the north, reaching 25 in the east, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 35 in the south- west but variable 05 to 10 in the central parts. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east at first, but in the south-west by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south and east, reaching 3.5 to 4.5m in the south- west, with W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE to S 10 to 20 in the west, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20 but NE to E 10 to 20 in the north, reaching 25 in the north-west at first. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-west and north-east, spreading to the central parts towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : NE to E 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north but in the south-west at first. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-east and south-west at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north but in the south-west at first, with S swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : N to NE 05 to 10 in the north-west, otherwise SE to S 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-east but variable 05 to 10 in the central parts towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east, with S to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE to E 10 to 20, but NE 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east, with a long period E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 35 in the southern half at first. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north and south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south until mid- period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 24/11/20 AT 1600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE FORCE 8 OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/11/20 AT 1200UTC - HIGH 1025 HPA NEAR 32S/82E EXTENDED BY RIDGE OVER AMS AND WAM. - WAVING FRONT NEAR 35S OVER WAM AND AMS. - RAPID WEST FLOW OVER CRO AND KER. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/11/20 AT 1800UTC TO 24/11/21 AT 1800UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND : VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4. SEA : MODERATE LOCALLY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SLIGHT SW SWELL. VISI : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE UNDER SHOWERS. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND : VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 SETTING-UP W 5 OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL, 2 TO 3 M FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VISI : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE UNDER SHOWERS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS, SNOWY SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN. WIND : WESTERLY 5 TO 6, LOCALLY 7 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VISI : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS, SNOWY SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN. WIND : WESTERLY 6 TO 7, LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W OR WSW SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VISI : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.