FQZA31 FAPR 051330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 05TH OF JANUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 052200 TO 062200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER (GRANT) ====================================================== RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20252026 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 (GRANT) 2.A POSITION 2026/01/05 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 56.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 24H: 2026/01/06 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 52.1 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2026/01/06 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.1 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 48H: 2026/01/07 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.6 E, WIND MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE WEST: SW 35 to 40 in the south-east towards mid-period. 2. CAPE EAST: W to NW 35 in the south, but SW 35 to 40 in the south-west towards mid-period. 3. MARION FORTIES EAST: NW 35 to 40 in the west, drifting to the east towards mid-period, but in the north-west towards the end of the period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1024 hPa 31s08w, High 1019 hPa 35s39e Low 991 hPa 48s05w, Low 1007 hPa 34s46e 1. Cold Front: 38s14w, 43s02w into 48s05w AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 10 in the east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 reaching 20 in the south-west at first, but in the south-east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north, otherwise NW to W 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the west towards mid-period, drifting to the south towards the end of the period, while becoming S to SW 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the south-west, spreading to the south-east by the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, with W to SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-west, otherwise SW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the south-east towards mid-period, while becoming W to NW 15 to 25 in the extreme east. VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain and showers in the south-east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, spreading over the southern half towards mid-period while reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east, with W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 in the eastern half, reaching 25 to 35 in the south, otherwise SW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west towards mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south- west, spreading to the south towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the west and south-west, where it will reach 4.0 to 5.0m towards mid-period, spreading over the western half towards the end of the period, while reaching 6.0 to 8.0m in the south-west with SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 over the central parts, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the north-west. It will become S to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 15, but N to NW 15 to 25 in the north. VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers over the northern parts. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise E to NE 05 to 15 but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the central parts, drifting to the west towards the end of the period. (Also see information about the Zone of Disturbed Weather (GRANT) above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme west, drifting to the west towards the end of the period, with E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 40 in the west, drifting to the east towards mid-period but in the north-west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west, spreading to the east towards mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the west, spreading to the east by mid-period, and reaching 5.0m in the north-west towards the end of the period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 2026/01/05 AT 0400UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 2026/01/05 AT 0000UTC - THUNDERY LOW 1006 NEAR 33S/45E, SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND FILLING A LITTLE. EXPECTED 1005 NEAR 40S/50E THE 06TH AT 00 UTC. - MODERATE OR FRESH WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER CRO AND KER. - HIGH 1027 OVER AMS NEAR 35S/74E, VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARDS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2026/01/05 AT 0600UTC TO 2026/01/06 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SHOWERS OR SQUALLS IN WEST, AT TIMES THUNDERY, WIND: - IN FAR WEST : NORTHEAST 5 OR 6, BECOMING SOON CLOCKWISE. GUSTS. - ELSEWHERE : NORTHEAST 3 TO 5, LOCALLY ANTICLOCKWISE 2 OR 3 IN FAR EAST AT FIRST. SEA : MODERATE, LOCALLY ROUGH IN WEST. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH. WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : MODERATE IN PRECIPITATIONS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND: NORTHWEST TO NORTH 4 OR 5, AT TIMES 6 AND TO 7 OVER THE FAR SOUTH- WESTERN AT THE END. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH. WIND: WESTERLY 4 TO 5, AT TIMES 6 IN EAST. SEA : MODERATE OR ROUGH. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.