FQZA31 FAPR 121330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 12TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 122200 TO 132200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20252026 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 39.9 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 70 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65 120H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=4.5- GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: CYCLONIC 35 TO 45 REACHING 55 TO 65 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH-WEST (REFER TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 'GEZANI'). 2. CAPE EAST: SW 35 IN THE EXTREME SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== HIGH 1030 HPA 36S00E. LOW 983 HPA 20S39E (TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 'GEZANI'). 1. COLD FRONT: 33S20W 36S17W 38S14W 41S12W INTO 41S14W. 2. COLD FRONT: 40S44E 45S51E 50S58E 55S61E INTO 59S60E. AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE TO S 10 TO 15. VIS : GOOD. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S TO SE 05 TO 15, BUT SW TO W 05 TO 10 IN THE EXTREME EAST FROM MID-PERIOD. VIS : GOOD. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE TO E 05 TO 15. VIS : GOOD. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S TO SE 10 TO 20, REACHING 25 TO 30 IN THE SOUTH-EAST AT TIMES. VIS : GOOD. SEA STATE: 3.0 TO 4.0M OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF, WITH S TO SE SWELL. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : NW 15 TO 25 IN THE SOUTH-EAST, BUT SW TO W 15 TO 25 IN THE SOUTH- WEST, OTHERWISE VARIABLE 05 TO 10. VIS : GOOD, BUT MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE SOUTH-WEST DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST FROM MID-PERIOD. SEA STATE: 3.0M IN THE SOUTH-WEST DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH-EAST BY MID-PERIOD, WITH SW TO W SWELL. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S TO SE 15 TO 25 IN THE NORTH-EAST, BUT SW TO S 05 TO 15 IN THE SOUTH REACHING 25 TO 30 IN THE SOUTH-EAST FROM MID-PERIOD, OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC 05 TO 15. VIS : GOOD, BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS AND RAIN IN THE EXTREME SOUTH-EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEA STATE: 3.0 TO 4.0M REACHING 4.5 TO 5.5M IN THE EXTREME SOUTH-EAST, WITH S TO SW SWELL. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : N TO NW 05 TO 15 REACHING 20 TO 25 IN PLACES, BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 IN THE WEST FROM MID-PERIOD REACHING 35 IN THE EXTREME SOUTH- WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. VIS : MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST SPREADING TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH BY MID- PERIOD, BECOMING POOR TO VERY POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH UNTIL MID-PERIOD. SEA STATE: 3.0 TO 4.0M IN THE WEST REACHING 4.5 TO 5.5M IN THE EXTREME SOUTH-WEST, WITH SW SWELL. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N TO NE 05 TO 15 REACHING 20 TO 25 IN PLACES IN THE NORTH-EAST. VIS : GOOD, BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH-WEST FROM MID-PERIOD. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : E TO SE 05 TO 15 IN THE SOUTH UNTIL MID-PERIOD, BUT CYCLONIC 35 TO 45 REACHING 55 TO 65 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH-WEST (REFER TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 'GEZANI'), OTHERWISE N TO NE 10 TO 20. VIS : MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN PLACES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS, BUT POOR TO VERY POOR IN THE SOUTH- WEST, OTHERWISE GOOD. SEA STATE: 4.0 TO 6.0M IN THE SOUTH-WEST REACHING 7.0 TO 8.0M AT TIMES AND IN PLACES IN THE SOUTH-WEST, WITH NE SWELL. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 TO 15 IN THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST, OTHERWISE E TO NE 05 TO 15. VIS : MODERATE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PARTS, OTHERWISE GOOD. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W TO NW 20 TO 30, BECOMING N TO NW 10 TO 20 FROM MID-PERIOD REACHING 25 TO 30 IN THE NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. VIS : MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH-EAST, AS WELL AS NORTH-WEST FROM MID-PERIOD SPREADING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE CENTRAL PARTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE GOOD. SEA STATE: 4.0 TO 5.0M, WITH SW TO W SWELL. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/12 AT 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE OVER SOUTHERN CRO AND EXPECTED OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/12 AT 0000UTC - COLD FRONT AXIS 36S/31E, 42S/38E, 52S/46E, 57S/50E, MOVING EASTWARD 20/25 KT. - HIGH 1027 HPA NEAR 38S/63E, OVER WAM AND EXPECTED OVER AMS AT END. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/12 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/13 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3/5. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 2 TO 3 M ABATING. VIS : GOOD. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 INCREASING E 5 OVER NORTHERN. SEA : ROUGH. SW SWELL 3 TO 4 M ABATING. VIS : GOOD. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND : NW 4/6, INCREASING 7/8 IN THE FRONT BACKING SW 2/4 BEHIND BUT W 5/6 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LATER. GUSTS. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W SWELL 2 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5, AT TIME 6, INCREASING NW 6/7 LOCALLY 8 SOON. GUSTS. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHERN. SW SWELL 2 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. WE RESPECT YOUR PRIVACY AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS EMAIL MAY CONTAIN PERSONALLY IDENTIFIABLE INFORMATION. THE EMAIL MAY BELONG TO YOU, OTHERS, AND OR TO YOUR ORGANIZATION, AND WHICH WE WILL PROCESS, WHICH PROCESSING WILL BE DONE IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR PRIVACY NOTICE ON OUR WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.WEATHERSA.CO.ZA/HOME/PRIVACYNOTICE=