FQZA31 FAPR 160830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 16TH OF FEBRUARY 2026 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 161000 TO 171000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. INFORMATION ABOUT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI: ================================================ RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 46/10/20252026 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI) 2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.9 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 490 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 490 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55 24H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 470 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 36H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 470 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 48H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 120 60H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140 72H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 445 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 155 GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. CAPE EAST: E to NE 35 in the north-west until tomorrow morning, but S to SE 35 to 40 in the north and north-east from tomorrow morning. 2. DURBAN EAST: Cyclonic 40 to 60 in the north, drifting to the central and south by the end of the period. Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). 3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 40 to 60 in the south and south-east until tomorrow morning. Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1024 hPa 40s25W, 1024 hPa 35s35e Low 988 hPa 24.8 S / 41.9 E (SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI). AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in light rain from mid-period. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the east, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Good, but moderate in light rain in the west and north. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east at first, with S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-west, spreading to the south-east by the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the east and northern parts. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the east and southern parts, subsiding in the south from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-west and south-east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south and west from mid-period, spreading to the south-east by the of the period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and rain in the west from mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west, spreading to the west and south from mid-period, with SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : E to NE 15 to 25 in the west, reaching 30 to 35 in the north-west until tomorrow morning, but S to SE 20 to 30 in the north and north- east, reaching 35 to 40 from tomorrow morning, otherwise anti- cyclonic 05 to 15. VIS : Good, becoming moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north- east towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, extreme east and north-east, reaching 5.0m in the north-east by the end of the period, with NE swell in the west, otherwise SE. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Cyclonic 40 to 60 in the north, drifting to the central and south by the end of the period, but NE 05 to 15 in the east, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Good in the south-west, otherwise moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in places, but poor to very poor in heavy thundershowers over the northern parts, drifting to the south by the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m except in the east and south-west, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the north, drifting to the south by the end of the period, with S to SE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, but cyclonic 40 to 60 in the south and south-east until tomorrow morning, otherwise S to SE 15 to 25. (Also see Information about SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 GEZANI above). VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places, but poor in heavy thundershowers in the south-east at first. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the central and southern parts, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south until tomorrow morning, with S to SW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SE 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the extreme south-west until tomorrow morning. VIS : Good in the central parts, otherwise moderate in showers and thundershowers. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south. It will become variable 05 to 10 in the north from mid-period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, subsiding in the central and northern parts from mid- period, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 26/02/16 AT 0400UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - NIL PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 26/02/16 AT 0000UTC - COLD FRONT CF AXIS 35S/52E, 37S/55E, 39S/58E, 42S/63E MOVING EASTWARD 15KT. - HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 36S/78E ALMOST STATIONARY. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 26/02/16 AT 0600UTC TO 26/02/17 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS UNDER CF. WIND : NW 4/5 LOCALLY 6 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING S TO SE 4/5 LOCALLY 6 BEHIND. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL 2 TO 3 METERS. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT FRONTAL RAIN CF OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA AT END. WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 BECOMING NW 2 TO 4 BY WESTERN AREA. SEA : MODERATE. VIS : POOR UNDER SHOWERS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RAIN, SQUALLS AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF OVER NORTH-EASTERN AREA AT BEGINNING. SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREA. WIND : W 4 TO 6, LOCALLY 7 OVER SOUTHERN AREA WITH GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH OVER NORTHERN AREA BUT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AREA. SW SWELL 3 TO 4 METERS. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF. WIND : NW 4 TO 5 LOCALLY 6 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING W TO SW 5 TO 6 LOCALLY 7 BEHIND OVER SOUTHERN AREA. GUSTS. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. W SWELL 2 TO 3 METERS. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATION.