FZAK80 PAFC 242248 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 248 PM AKST Monday 24 March 2025 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 29 March 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High. SYNOPSIS...A decaying low pressure dissipates in the western Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. A low and front over the far western Bering Sea, moves into the central Bering Sea and dissipates by mid-week. Two strong high pressures develop at the surface, one over the Bering Sea and another over the Beaufort Sea. By late in the week, the storm track is over the western Bering Sea into the eastern Siberian Sea, a highly amplified pattern. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist through Friday. Expect the ice pack to continue to thicken and generally move to the west at about 10 nm/day through the forecast period. By the weekend, the low pressure over the Siberian Sea will bring some southerly winds back to the Beaufort Sea, albeit not very strong. However, this will bring increased risk of shorefast ice breaking off. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Lighter and variable winds through mid to late week will mean ice generally moving with tides and currents. Ice has been very locked into place lately except for the polynyas along the northwest coast of Alaska. Friday and Saturday, a warm front moving over the area will return some light to moderate southeasterly winds to the Chukchi Sea. These will bring increased risk of shorefast ice break-off along western and northern facing coastlines as well as polynya formation in these areas. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 59 57N 167 39’W to 60 31’N 178 33’W and continues west into Russian waters. The ice edge is low concentration strips of ice. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 80 nm to 115 south-southwest of Cape Mendenhall to 270 nm southwest of Gambell and continues west into Russian waters. The ice edge is low concentration strips of ice. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. From Saint Matthew Island eastward...light to moderate northwesterly winds will continue through the period. Expect the ice edge to move southward 20 to 30 nm through Saturday. Ice will continue to come off the main pack in strips, moving southward into warmer water and gradually melting. West of Saint Matthew Island...winds will be light and variable, turning westerly late in the week, followed by southwesterly winds over the weekend. Ice will remain fairly stationary, mostly moving with tides and currents through Friday. Over the weekend, expect retreat of 10-15 nm/day. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...The general low track will be across the southern Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. New sea ice is forming during the nighttime hours generally north of Point Possession, then melting during the day. Otherwise, remaining sea ice is confined to Knik Arm and Turnagain Arm. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. With lows in the 20s and highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, expect new sea ice to continue to form at night and melt during the day through the forecast period. Any remaining thicker sea ice within Knik Arm and Turnagain Arm will continue to melt. && Lawson