WTNT25 KNHC 072032

TCMAT5



TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102025

2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  46.4W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.

4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  46.4W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  45.4W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N  49.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N  53.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 110SE  40SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N  56.4W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N  59.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N  61.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N  62.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  40SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N  63.3W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE  60SW 100NW.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.2N  61.2W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  46.4W



INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI