WTPZ21 KNHC 080839

TCMEP1



HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025

0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

34 KT.......140NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.

4 M SEAS....270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.7W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 65NE  55SE  50SW  45NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.2W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.1W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.8N 115.4W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.9N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.0W



INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1200Z



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH=